CIA and Pentagon Did Not Share Afghanistan

The prolonged war in Afghanistan is a problem for leaders on both sides of the Atlantic. In the U.S., in spite of optimistic reports from the Pentagon, intelligence agencies believe that if Pakistan does not eliminate the militants taking shelter in its territory, the chances of the allies gaining victory over the Taliban will not be high. Meanwhile, in Germany, debates are flaring up with newfound strength over the advisability of extending the German contingent mandate in Afghanistan.

Today, the Obama administration is planning to publish its review of the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan. According to the review, an increase in the American contingent allowed it to achieve substantial progress in the war against the Taliban and created conditions for beginning a withdrawal of troops as early as July of next year. Let us remember that a year ago, President Barack Obama sanctioned the dispatch of 30,000 additional U.S. soldiers to Afghanistan, which should have helped turn the war in favor of the international coalition.

However, the day before the review prepared by the White House was published, the American media became aware of the contents of two secret documents, in which the country’s intelligence agencies gave their much more negative evaluation of the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In the “National Intelligence Estimates,” which are prepared jointly by analysts of all 16 American intelligence agencies, it is asserted that in spite of the successes of NATO troops, Islamabad’s unwillingness to liquidate militant bases in the tribal zone in the western portion of the country remains a serious obstacle.

This leak may further complicate the already strained relations between Washington and Islamabad, which many in the U.S. blame on the tight-lipped connivance of the Afghan Taliban. Therefore, at the Pentagon, they rushed to announce that the “estimates” were outdated since they did not take into account the recent successes in Kandahar and Helmand, and in general were prepared by bureaucrats who had not been on the battleground themselves.

The New York Times notes that the dispute between the military and the intelligence agencies (mainly the CIA) appears to be a reflection of the argument over whether the U.S. can have victory without the cooperation of Pakistan, the support of which has cost billions.

Meanwhile, the Afghanistan topic is also becoming a cause for serious political battles in Europe. Germany’s government is under the latest mandate by the Bundestag to prolong the mission of the Bundeswehr in Afghanistan. This time, especially heated debates are expected in the Reichstag. After all, all reports confirm that the majority of Germans are pressuring for the soldiers to return home.

The “Federal Government Progress Report on Afghanistan,” published on Tuesday, looks unconvincing. The primary success named in it is that among 7 million Afghani schoolchildren, 35 percent are girls. However, in the area of human rights, Afghanistan is far below international standards. In the document, it is also stated that in the fight against corruption, “hardly any progress has been made,” and regarding security, they observed “a differentiated picture with regional and seasonal discrepancies.”*

As a consolation, 2010 was nevertheless named “a turning point in international Afghan action,” since “for the first time a unified international strategy for transferring responsibility for security was worked out” by Kabul. And within its framework, the federal government intends to reduce part of its obligations “from the end of 2011 to the beginning of 2012.” They say they plan to execute this “to the extent possible.”

The situation is complicated by the fact that in the governing coalition, there is no unified opinion regarding the Afghan strategy. If one of the messages from the U.S. Embassy in Berlin, published by WikiLeaks, is to be believed, Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg complained that the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Guido Westerwelle, hindered the increase of the German contingent in Afghanistan.

In his announcements, the head of the diplomatic department persistently emphasizes the desire to begin withdrawal of troops by 2011. Guttenberg, having completed a visit to “his soldiers” together with his wife this week, is more cautious. “I’m not the kind of person who says,‘next year we’re going to withdraw soldiers here or there.’ That would be irresponsible,” he declared in Kunduz. He emphasized that there are not any concrete plans yet on this account.

*Editor’s Note: Exact quotes could not be verified, but the information in this paragraph and the following one are taken from Germany’s report.