In Real Life There Is No Place for Wishful Thinking

At the end of 2009, American president Barack Obama received a nice encouragement prize. Thorbjörn Jagland, president of the Nobel committee, explained that the president was honored because of his “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between nations.” The committee was also impressed with Obama’s dream of a nuclear-weapon free world.

It seems that Obama, on that last point, has gained a small success at the tail end of 2010 when, after a lot of political pushing and shoving, the Senate agreed to ratify the START treaty. This agreement restricts the number of strategic nuclear weapons in America and Russia.

But the road to a nuclear-weapon-free world proves long, because the treaty obliges the parties to, seven years after final ratification, reduce their nuclear arsenals to at the most 1,550 nuclear warheads and 700 rockets or planes with which these can be engaged.

Which other successes can we expect? Jagland declared that Obama “has created a new climate in international politics, in which dialogue and negotiations are preferred in even the most difficult international conflicts.” So far, the president has accomplished little.

The conflict in the Middle East simmers on and could explode at any given moment. After a freeze of three months, Israeli colonists are cheerfully building again at the West Bank, which further complicates an agreement with the Palestinians. The biggest problem is that Israel seems to be preparing for a new war against Gaza. The blockade that was set up after the 2008 war has not worked. Hamas is stronger than ever. Rockets are once again fired from Gaza on Israel. Israel once again carries out military actions. And in Israel, hardliners frustrate every political solution. Obama will not make it in the Middle East with dialogue. The best strategy now seems to put pressure on Israel by putting the yearly $3 billion in military support up for discussion.

Speaking of dialogue, Iran is not running smoothly either. As a sign of goodwill, the Iranian government is now inviting a number of countries for an inspection tour, including Russia, China and several European Union member states. America was not welcome.

The reason is obvious. America forges a coalition that wants to enforce hard sanctions on Iran, but countries like Russia and China do not intend to have their trade interests with the country damaged. They set in on dialogue, not on Obama’s hard action. Something similar is going on with North Korea. Here, America is archenemy number one. The dialogue here is mainly kept going by China.

Obama reveals himself more and more to be a normal leader of a normal superpower who seeks dialogue with allies, but particularly puts his opponents under pressure. But because of the American power decay, that strategy becomes less and less effective.

That Nobel Peace Prize, therefore, seemed like a nice gesture, but completely passed by the reality of international politics. In that, there is little room for the wishful thinking of the Nobel Committee, even in 2011.