2010 between Washington and Jerusalem

Yuri Gankin recaps a lame year of relations between the countries a moment before Obama begins to run for his second term, in a campaign where Israel is predicted to have a central role.

Virtually all of the past year in Israel -U.S. relations has been marked by Obama’s aspiration to revive the Israeli -Palestinian negotiations: Obama, Clinton and Mitchell were pushing and pushing, until finally getting desperate about the abortive attempt and declaring the death of the direct process and a return to the proximity talks. In between, there took place a few more events that deserve our attention. What follows is a summary of the relations between Israel and its number one ally in the year 2010.

To Freeze or Not to Freeze – That Is the Question

Ain’t this a secret: The paramount source of tension in the passing year between Washington and Jerusalem, between Netanyahu and Obama, has been a gap between the American president and the Israeli prime minister regarding their commitment to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Netanyahu is taken in Washington as an objector to peace not disposed to an agreement. Had he wanted it, as they say in Washington, he could have passed the second freeze just like that. Lieberman, the Israeli foreign minister, is simply being discounted by Washington — and there are more and more voices in the White House pointing at him as the main obstacle on the way to an agreement.

The fact that the prime minister is not firing Lieberman is perceived in the White House as a clear hint that he is not just the foreign minister but Netanyahu’s subcontractor: the former says what the latter is prevented from saying.

Netanyahu, from his side, is talking outwardly about his huge appreciation for the American president, but in private he’s awaiting the day when the Democratic president cedes his place to somebody from the Republican Party. At the time of writing this piece, however, there is no Republican candidate who can truly threaten Obama, and this is in spite of the steady decline in the public support for him. As of now, Huckabee, Romney and Palin are just names who doubtfully will be able, when the time comes — each for his or her own reasons — to carry away the contingent of independent voters and tip the election scales in their favor.

The peace process in the Middle East, Obama claims, would be reignited in a serious way only when the prime minister changes his coalition line-up and in reality engages Kadima. It’s not for nothing that Tzipi Livni had been invited about two weeks ago to confidential talks in Washington. Nonetheless, it currently looks like the chance for a change in the composition of the coalition is slim, and Obama is going to be supremely disappointed.

The Struggle with the Iranian Nuke

Netanyahu didn’t hide his great disappointment with the lax treatment — as he defined it — of Ahmadinejad and his evil cronies by the international community. According to all the estimates (those revealed in WikiLeaks and those that were not), Iran is approaching each and every day the nuclear point of no return — and perhaps has even crossed it. The emphasis on the ongoing deliberations and the endeavor to get the Iranians back to the negotiation table — while waiving the biting sanctions which could bring about a substantial damage to the Iranian administration — has driven numerous countries, including Arab ones, to question the intention and the ability of the United States to head the global struggle. Obama is positive that the solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is inseparably tied to the solution of the Iranian problem. Netanyahu and other Israeli higher-ups are dismissing this in one fell stroke.

The leadership vacuum that the United States left behind in the fight against Iran was filled by countries like Russia, Brazil and Turkey, which tried (and even temporarily succeeded) to get the ball rolling on signing an agreement supposed to take down Iran’s nuclear ambitions and bolster a solution achieved in peaceful ways. But putting both speculations and reality aside, Iran keeps on advancing in giant steps toward a nuclear weapon for military purposes, and the last year has proven that the international community is, as always, strong in words but weak in action.

The Congressional Elections

Benjamin Netanyahu is widely considered as a real winner of the Congressional midterm elections, for the Israeli card has turned into one of the most powerful aces in the battle for the nature of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Things took a dramatic turn in the form of Democratic defeat in the lower house and narrowing of the gaps in the upper house. So it’s right that most of the work of the new Congress (which will assemble for the first time the next week) will focus on the domestic policy; but there is no doubt that the Jewish Rep. Eric Cantor (designated House Majority Leader), one of the most active legislators on the Israeli issue, and some of his Republican colleagues are also going to have an irrefutable impact on the Middle East agenda of the president.

Pollard: End of the Season Operation

Netanyahu knows that the internal political status of Obama is not good as it used to be, and therefore, right ahead of the end of the civil year, he sought to raise anew, formally, and for the first time in many years, the issue of release of the jailed Jewish spy Jonathan Pollard. The timing is not coincidental and originates directly from Obama’s political weakness. The public demand is going to force Obama to grant the request or to deny it and open another front against the Republicans who, even so, aren’t crazy about him. This time, differently from previous times, everything is going to be done openly, not clandestinely.

Not an Easy Year for Obama

The only thing agreed upon by the United States and Israel recently is the need to hinder the surge of the unilateral recognition of the future Palestinian state. Israel refuses to accept the Palestinian state as a fait accompli, without official agreement about its borders to be reached in negotiations. This is undoubtedly setting a dangerous precedent, especially while the United States is doing everything within its ability in order to prove to the whole world, and to itself as well, that it’s still running the show in our region. By the way, from a practical standpoint, the Palestinian Authority’s appeal to the UN won’t have any influence because the U.S. would instantly veto the initiative.

2011 is going to be not an easy year for President Obama, even though he has managed several revolutionary legislative enterprises so far. The oppositional Congress and the upcoming elections will compel him to subject his policy to narrow electoral considerations. The campaign for an additional term is already around the corner, and Israel is going to constitute an inalienable part of it. For the first time in years, the seat of the Israeli prime minister is going to be more stable than that of his American counterpart.

Something weird is going on in the kingdom of Washington.