Hu Jintao Visiting the U.S. Will Not Affect U.S.-Taiwan Cross-Strait Relations

The Taiwanese ambassador to the United States, Yuan Jiansheng, indicated on Jan. 1, 2011, that according to a briefing by his American counterpart, the Chinese leader Hu Jintao’s visit to the United States should not affect relations between the United States and Taiwan. In fact, based on a number of reasons, not only will it not affect U.S.-Taiwan relations, judging from all sorts of indications, it should actually benefit them positively.

Will Not Bring up the ‘Core Interests’ Again

Firstly, as usual, if there is some trouble or if something big happens in U.S.-Taiwan relations, Washington think tanks or the president of the American Institute in Taiwan will carry a message to Taipei. For example, on Nov. 17, 2009, before President Obama and President Hu Jintao announced the “U.S.-China Joint Statement,” Senior Fellow Bonnie S. Glaser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned our country: U.S.-China talks are about ‘core’ interests and issues. Raymond F. Burghardt, chairman of the Board of Trustees of the AIT came to Taiwan in early December 2010, and brought with him notes on the U.S.-Taiwan negotiations scheduled for early this year for the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement. This time, since there is no negative message of U.S.-Taiwan relations whatsoever, Taipei should not have any special concerns. Moreover, in 2010 some conflicts arose between the U.S. and China about ‘core’ issues, so Hu would probably not bring up ‘core’ interests and issues again during this visit in order to avoid causing trouble.

Secondly, the Cheonan sinking incident, North Korea shelling the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong and North Korea’s nuclear development are the main reasons for heightened tensions in the U.S.-China relationship in 2010. Therefore during this visit, Hu and Obama will probably come to an agreement on these issues. Recently, South Korean President Lee Myung Bak and three state-run North Korean newspapers issued a joint New Year’s editorial, and we can see that North and South Korea have decided to get on the right track and cool down, practice self-restraint and prepare to return to the six-party talks. This obviously has a lot to do with the intensive behind-the-scenes machinations by China and the U.S.

In addition, they will also cooperate on the international financial crisis, climate change, nuclear security and other global issues. On the aspect of the RMB exchange rate, Beijing is unlikely to meet any of Washington’s subjective wishes, but facing pressure from the American quantitative easing monetary policy and the government, it is impossible for Beijing not to cooperate with the U.S. on this issue just a little.

The Chinese Hope to Patch Relations with the Americans

Thirdly, despite the United States and China being the new political and economic heavyweights in the Asia-Pacific, they are in a balanced alliance. However, in order to create a constructive atmosphere, Hu’s visit should not affect the United States’ peaceful relations with any country. In fact, between the United States, Japan and South Korea, a stronger alliance will be formed. Also, in a speech last month, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg said that the United States will continue to comply with the “Taiwan Relations Act” when selling arms to Taiwan. Many Southeast Asian countries also have the intention to become closer to the United States or hope the United States can balance the rise of China. Also, Hu Jintao really hopes to repair relations with the United States in order to avoid any country from using cracks in Sino-U.S. relations to benefit.

Fourth, Beijing succeeded last year in promoting ECFA, which will bring cross-strait economic cooperation to into a new phase, and has led to historic progress in Taiwanese industry. Therefore, during the visit of Hu Jintao, at the very most he and his American counterpart will stress in the Sino-U.S. Joint Statement that both countries would like to see a breakthrough in cross-strait economic progress. In fact, while Hu was at the Chinese People’s Political Consultive Conference during the New Year’s, held for two days of talks, and in his New Year’s message, there was a special emphasis on cross-strait exchanges. Hu said that in 2011, China will “grasp firmly the theme of peaceful development and continue to promote cross-strait exchanges and cooperation.” Thus be it for peaceful cross-strait development, or for his own place in history, during this visit Hu will not destroy the very positive atmosphere of the current cross-strait relationship.

Finally, Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg indicated in a speech early last month that Washington and Beijing will discuss Taiwanese participation in international organizations. In early January Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will go to Washington to prepare in advance for the negotiations during Hu’s visit. Taipei naturally hopes that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the International Civil Aviation Organization will be on the table.