America Will Live Not a Bad Life Yet

The world has already been through this and, it seems, has already forgotten it: Back in the ‘80s, there was a lot of talk that Japan was about to leave the U.S. behind and become the number one economic power, with all the relevant consequences for the global political positions of Washington. After 10 years of stagnation in Japan, China has taken the place of an audacious contender to occupy the throne. The question is whether China really is more sufficient in its positions compared to Japan.

Aleksey Kudrin makes the prognosis that there will not be growth similar to that of 2000–2008 again.

“The Post-American World,” a book written by political scientist and journalist Fareed Zakaria in 2008 (then a chief editor for Newsweek International), immediately peaked on the bestseller lists. The author reflects on many issues but there is a simple line of thought that threads through the book: The modern world is characterized not by the decline of the U.S. but by the rise of other countries. That is why America, which is now like a rock in the desert, will continue to stay there; only the landscape around it will become less tame. Other world powers have as many ambitions and great achievements as they have obstacles and challenges.

It will not be easy for China to keep up the pace, despite its effective politics, reforms and rational foreign policy behavior. The limits of its growth are far too obvious already today. What used to work for them 20 years ago is not going do that well forever. Lining pockets from the free labor force of villagers can be carried on for a long time, but there is a limit. Even a Chinese worker is less and less willing to work for nothing. Primary products and energy are rapidly becoming a deficit and are rising in price. The external and internal pressure (which is more important) on the PRC political system will continue increasing.

In December 2010, Foreign Affairs magazine publishes an article by Joseph S. Nye, Jr., “The Future of American Power.” Nye is a well-known American political scientist and one of the co-founders of the influential, neo-liberal International School of Politics; he argues that rumors about the decline of America are grossly exaggerated. For instance, it is often said, first keeping in mind the financial aspect of the problem, the States “are suffering from imperial overstrain.” In the meantime, the percentage of American GDP designated for defense and international politics in recent years is decreasing. There are serious social issues in the country and not always an effective state governance. There are no signs these issues are comprehensive (i.e. that they embrace all spheres of society), but the situation is going down all the same. It is the usual course of life. It is as simple as that. But any life is imperfect: Something gets worse, and something gets better.

As an example of improvement, Mr. Nye mentions the level of criminality and the number of divorces. For each case of American failures and negative tendencies, there are examples of success and advantages. These advantages are undeniable and are not overridden by failures. Of course, nothing is everlasting, and the U.S. is not the first great “power” in the history of humanity, and all the “powers” that existed before watched their “imperial cycles” fade away. However, any parallel is imperfect, and no event completely repeats another. What great “power” from the past could be compared to the U.S.? There would be little difference between them. More often than not, for example, America follows the way of the United Kingdom. But the fact that the British Empire reached the apex of visible power, measured in the conquered territories, while its economical strength was already declining as the U.S. and Germany were rapidly developing is often omitted. Territorial expansion and the peak of the economical opportunities somehow passed one another in time. It turned out that London was badly lacking money to keep the Empire where the sun never sets. The U.S. today neither has problems like that, nor an empire as it was perceived in the 19th century. Certainly, they live beyond their means, and there is huge internal and external debt. Well, many are in debt but not all of them die because of it.

The attention paid to the real or pseudo decline of the U.S. appears to be excessive, and the way the question is posed is incorrect. Particularly, it is about us, in Russia. It is good if America is indeed declining. What will happen to the world if America collapses? How should Russia prepare itself for this event? We do not analyze these questions or seek answers to them. If America stands steady on both feet and will not disappear in the foreseeable future, then wouldn’t it be better to start thinking how we could benefit from knowing it, like the Chinese do?