Egypt’s Uncertain Future

It looks like it’s going to be difficult for Egypt to find an easy solution to the popular revolt that started twelve days ago. Although at the beginning Mubarak’s regime did not know how to respond, later on it started making its moves — moves typical of dictatorships trying to quell revolts. With the collaboration of the police and the acquiescence of the military, the regime has sent out its supporters to violently suppress the protests. It has further accused foreign forces of encouraging the revolt in order to destabilize the country; it has tried to quiet the press; and it has offered a dialog with conditions that are difficult for the opposition to accept.

Even though Muhammad el-Baradei seemed to have all the cards to lead the Egyptian transition, he is slowly emerging as an option belonging to the same regime. In fact, the United States is maneuvering to find the key formula to provoke a change in the situation without losing its influence in the country and, most importantly, without destabilizing it.

Hence, a solution is emerging that would remove Mubarak from power — yesterday evening there was already talk about a permanent resignation — and replace him with Vice President Omar Suleiman, a man belonging to the regime but viewed favorably by the U.S., who could lead the process of political change. While the E.U.’s response to the crisis has been late, uncoordinated and doesn’t demand Mubarak’s resignation, the American government has surprised everyone with its quick response in favor of change.

Obama’s government is aware that supporting Mubarak would only serve to make more enemies in the region, and that an uncontrolled change in Egyptian power can lead to problems in the short term and further into the future. But even if in the end a non-traumatic reform is achieved, Egypt is still too important for there not to be several clashing interests trying to pull Egypt’s fate one way or the other.