Chaos and Vanity

The Prophet Muhammad recommended that middle-aged Muslim men dye their graying hair. Thus, they would differentiate themselves from their Christian and Jewish peers, who out of misunderstood modesty did not resort to this beautifying procedure. If you’ve happened to pay attention, the leaders of the Arab world do not like showing silver temples. For example, at 68 years of age, Saddam stretched his pitch-black mustache. The 82-year-old Hosni Mubarak is maybe going too far with his raven-black scalp. His vanity, even though it seems completely insignificant compared to the dramatic events taking place in Egypt now, serves as a good metaphor for the political career of this former military pilot. He took over the presidential post at a dramatic moment for his country, right after the assassination of Anwar El Sadat in 1981. Starting as a popular and respected leader, he gradually turned into an unscrupulous dictator.

Now I don’t know if I should even call Mubarak president, for by the time this text is actually published, things in the Land of the Pharaohs could be very different. It’s interesting how a Soviet trainee (Mubarak spent a total of four years at a pilot training school and military academy in the Soviet Union.) turned into the United States’ best friend in the area. The omniscient WikiLeaks recently published documents straightforwardly describing the deal made: $1.3 billion invested in Egypt annually in the form of military and economic support in exchange for peace with Israel and the 5th and 6th American Fleet’s priority access to the Suez Canal.

It is almost funny to observe the complex dance routines that the U.S. leaders are forced to perform to the beat of the events that CNN calls “Egypt’s upheaval.” Last week, Hillary Clinton and Vice President Joseph Biden each took a bottomless bucket of water to the various TV studios. The secretary of state repeated many times that the regime in Egypt is actually stable, while the the White House’s number two explained that Mubarak wasn’t exactly a dictator. Should you ask me, I think Washington is no less chaotic than Cairo or Alexandria at the moment.

I wonder if the collapse of the regimes in Eastern Europe in 1989 affected the U.S. in a similar way. Did the administration of George Bush, Sr. carefully weigh its words in an attempt at not making Moscow angry? Egypt, it seems to me, is like Communist Eastern Europe in another way, too: According to some unofficial data, about 1.7 million people there work for the Ministry of Interior — which adds up to about 2 percent of the overall population. There was one Stasi agent per every 66 people in East Germany. The proportions are analogous. We now know how rotten is a society that so profusely spies on itself.

Furthermore, the worries of the U.S., Israel, the countries in the Arab world and the political and business elite altogether regarding the events in Egypt are justified. If the country falls into complete chaos, and bloodshed ensues, the trembles will be felt afar. The international markets already reacted negatively to the events. But even the peaceful adoption of democracy can cause some problems. It’s been estimated that in free elections the radical Muslim Brotherhood may receive as much as 25–30 percent of the votes. I don’t know if such fears are exaggerated. But what if they are not? Washington is certainly sincere in its dreading the creation of a new Iran.

However this situation is resolved, it will be best if the Egyptians are at the root of the changes. They have the resources and abilities to build an active civil society. In September last year, I read that the Egyptian blogger Wael Khalil (http://waelk.net/) discovered that the government newspaper Al-Ahram had manipulated a photo of Mubarak. Using Photoshop, they moved Mubarak forward in a photograph taken of him, Barack Obama and three other Middle Eastern leaders, so that it looked as if he was leading the group. In reality, the American president was the host and was accordingly walking a step in front of the others in the original version. Posted on that same blog today, you will find political caricatures mocking the regime quite loudly. They need no translation.

At least the expected future leader of Egypt, Mohamed ElBaradei, is bald — for vanity is contagious. Two British tabloids recently compared photos of Obama and reached the conclusion that the president had started hiding his silver hair with a strategic amount of black hair dye.