Commentary on the Fourth Type of Relationship for China and the U.S.

Along with the continuous rise of China’s international influence, the ever-increasing frequency of contact between China and the U.S. and the increasing importance of China to the U.S., American scholars’ attention to U.S.-China relations has risen with the tide. American scholars researching China, as well as those interested in China, are rushing in. Since the onset of the U.S. international financial crisis in 2008, under the looming backdrop of an ever-worsening U.S. employment landscape filled with the persistent increase of unemployment, China watchers and those who speak Chinese have become hot commodities.

U.S.-China relations are not only important for the U.S. and China, but they are also very important for the Asia-Pacific region and the whole world. Where exactly is this crucial relationship heading?

The three traditional types of relationships for China and the United States

Before the mainland of North America was discovered by Columbus, before the establishment of the United States, before the Qing dynasty knew what and where the United States of America was, the two countries were completely disconnected from each other’s affairs. The possibility that such a disconnect still exists, given the backdrop of a continuing degree of globalization, is zero. In the seemingly disconnected relationship between China and the U.S., during the Cold War and the end of the Korean War and Kissinger’s secret visit to China, the two countries managed to maintain a relationship where contact fluctuated up and down, took different forms and shifted from direct to indirect.

Will conflict arise between China and the U.S.? By conflict, I mean the following: war and military conflicts of different scales, ideological wars like the Cold War (the author modestly believes that during the Cold War, the ideological dispute between the two main factions was a type of war, a war that differs from traditional wars and trade wars). Surveying world history, whether it was the Franco-Prussian war, World War I and II or minor wars and military conflicts, war is not something that happens every second of every day, all day and all night. Generally speaking, we fight, sometimes cease fire, sometimes take arms and sometimes debate. Including the recently ended Cold War, when there existed a “you or me,” “friend or foe” relationship between the U.S. and the former Soviet Union, there was still cooperation on such issues as nuclear nonproliferation. Thus, conflict cannot be the status quo between two countries. Even if it is an inheritance of the Cold War, the U.S.-North Korean relationship and the North-South Korean relationship has had its share of sunny days and short springs.

From Nixon’s 1972 visit to China to the 1989 sanctions that the U.S. imposed on China, former U.S. Secretary of State Kissinger has called the relationship during this almost two-decade-old period an unofficial alliance. Will China and America become allies once again? Taking a look around the globe, no country can substantively threaten the safety of China and the U.S. at the same time. As for global issues such as the environment, global warming and transmittable diseases, none are sufficient for promoting the formation of another U.S.-China bilateral alliance. In the author’s limited view, within the next 20 years the possibility of an alliance forming between China and the U.S. is next to nothing.

The fourth possibility for the U.S.-China relationship

In reality, of the three traditional types of relationships that characterize U.S.-China relations mentioned above, the first and second are considered abnormal states. Only the third can be considered normal. Looking at the world, the U.S. still has numerous allies: NATO alone has 30 members and in Asia, there are Japan, the Philippines, etc. The author has already roughly analyzed the impossibility of China and the U.S. becoming allies again in the article “Never Again Can We Return to U.S.-China Relations As They Were Before.”

Since the end of the Cold War, a normal relationship between two countries should be one where the two countries are not disconnected, do not have conflict and also are not allies. In other words, the fourth type of relationship for the U.S. and China, or, the “fourth path,” is to establish normal relations. Why is it so difficult for China and America to establish a normal relationship? To put it simply, there are three main reasons:

First is the influence of the ideology of the Cold War. Even though the Cold War had been over for more than 20 years, in the period after 9/11, there were people who believed that we were then in a post-post-Cold War era. Regardless of whether we are now in the post-Cold War period or the post-post-Cold War period, one point is clear: Cold War ideology still exists and affects international relations. China and the United States were both important players during the Cold War. Furthermore, they were each other’s enemies and allies for many years. Under the influence of Cold War ideology, when facing a country that has been both an enemy and an ally, it is difficult to step out of this relationship.

Second are international structural contradictions. This is the core reason why it is hard for the U.S. and China relationship to step out of traditional international relations. In facing a continuously rising China, the United States, which is accustomed to opposing the world’s number two in order to preserve and strengthen its own supremacy, has already subconsciously identified China as the target of its defense. Likewise, it consciously puts its guard up against the “competitor.” Even if America believes that China, the world’s number two, is rising peacefully, even if the United States knows clearly that it can reap great economic benefits from China’s rise, even if the U.S. believes China will not fight for supremacy, letting go of the world’s number one seat to sink to number two, or sharing with China the power of being number one, is a very painful matter for the U.S.

The majority of countries, because they have no territorial disputes, do not have a sense of territorialism or an international structural contradiction, defense strategies or ethnic disputes. Therefore, they are able to grow, cooperate and compete economically, as well as maintain normal country relations. Even though serious trade friction appears from time to time, it does not do serious damage. For large countries such as China and the United States, limited to Cold War ideology and international structural contradictions, it is hard to grow solely within the economic realm. The contradiction lies in the fact that the two countries are undoubtedly special and important, but they are both countries and must develop normal country relations.

In the foreseeable future, the China-U.S. relationship will enter into a fourth category, below that of allies and below that of normal country relations. Currently, cooperation between China and the U.S. appears mainly when addressing issues for normalized relations. China and the United States are both major world powers on many international issues, such as maintaining the stability of the global economy, nuclear nonproliferation and preventing global warming. It seems as if they differ from topics discussed in relationships between normal countries, but in reality these topics are already considered normal issues of discourse between countries. The thing is, the average country doesn’t have the means to address these issues!