Is the U.S. a Reliable Ally?

Published in Tal Cual Digital
(Venezuela) on 9 February 2011
by Víctor M. Mijares (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Tabitha Middleton . Edited by Alexander Anderson.
It is generally accepted that great powers do not have permanent friends or enemies; they only have permanent interests. But is it not imperative in a system of competitive polarity to preserve the very alliances that facilitate achieving those interests?

This question focuses attention on the doctrine of "smart power" and the impact it may be having, both in terms of key U.S. alliances and in the stability of the international system.

The "smart power" approach involves a pragmatic but not necessarily realistic vision, which tends to reduce the level of commitment, at least diplomatically, in bilateral alliances of vital strategic importance.

Colombia, Israel and Egypt are three specific instances of this principle. These privileged recipients of U.S. military aid have not seen it diminish under the Obama administration. What is more, in Colombia's case the use by the U.S. of at least seven Colombian military bases says a great deal about how interdependent the two sides really are.

However, little has been done to cement this alliance with a free-trade agreement. Such ambiguity has colored Bogota's view on the use of the bases and has even driven it to reconsider its role as a member of the Brazilian project UNASUR, going so far as to propose its own candidate for the General Secretariat.

In the case of Israel, Tel Aviv's unsustainable settlements policy, its blockade of Gaza, as well as its insinuations of a possible preemptive attack on Iran, all testify to the lackluster management of bilateral relations with the United States.

Although geopolitical interests sustain the alliance, the deal that the Obama administration offered the Netanyahu government was dismissive from the beginning.

While the U.S. is responsible for administering punishments and rewards as a major partner in the relationship, the fact that it delegated the task of receiving a representative of an allied state to the Defense Department adversely affected the relationship and sowed personal distrust, in spite of routine military support.

The last case, that of Egypt, is linked to the second. It is difficult to justify the Mubarak regime, but as Sadat's political heir and the representative of the secular state that signed a peace treaty in recognition of Israel, the situation called for a clear policy of engagement, at least at the outset, to ensure a peaceful and secular transition.

Doubts, a necessary consequence of "smart power," led to the abandonment of a close ally without securing the loyalty of a potential successor.

Presumably, those three examples will have an impact beyond their immediate borders. How will Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Pakistan or Saudi Arabia, whose defense and/or stability are linked to bilateral agreements with the U.S., respond to erratic American conduct?

To cease being a reliable ally in a multi-polar system is the worst tactic imaginable if you want to preserve international order.


EEUU ¿Un aliado confiable?

Es cierto, las grandes potencias no tienen amigos ni enemigos permanentes. Tienen intereses permanentes. Pero, en un sistema de competitiva polaridad, ¿no es imperativo conservar las alianzas que facilitan alcanzar esos intereses?

Es cierto, las grandes potencias no tienen amigos ni enemigos permanentes. Tienen intereses permanentes. Pero, en un sistema de competitiva polaridad, ¿no es imperativo conservar las alianzas que facilitan alcanzar esos intereses?

La pregunta surge a la luz la doctrina del "poder ingenioso" ( smartpower) y el efecto que podría estar generando tanto en alianzas clave de EEUU, como en la estabilidad del sistema internacional.

El enfoque del poder ingenioso conlleva una visión pragmática (no realista) que reduce alternativamente el nivel de compromiso ­al menos diplomático­ en alianzas bilaterales de importancia geoestratégica.

Veamos tres casos en concreto: Colombia, Israel y Egipto. Estos privilegiados receptores de ayuda militar estadounidense no han visto mermar esos recursos en la era Obama, y es más, en el caso de Colombia el planteamiento del uso de al menos siete bases en conjunto nos dice mucho sobre cuánto se han involucrado las partes.

No obstante, es poco lo que se ha logrado para sellar el amplio pacto de alianza con un tratado de libre comercio. Este enfriamiento unilateral afectó la decisión sobre el uso de las bases e hizo que Bogotá reconsiderara su rol membrecía en la Unasur, el proyecto brasileño, al punto de proponer a su propia candidata para la Secretaría General.

La insostenible política de asentamientos, el bloqueo a Gaza y los anuncios sobre posibles ataques preventivos a Irán por parte de Israel, pasan por una gestión decepcionante de la relación bilateral.

Aunque el interés geopolítico sostenga a la alianza, el trato que la administración Obama ofreció al gobierno de Netanyahu fue, desde el principio, displicente.

Si bien a EEUU tiene la responsabilidad de administrar premios y castigos como socio mayor de la relación, haber delegado en el Departamento de Defensa el recibimiento y honores al representante de un Estado aliado en su primera visita, afectó la salud de la relación, sembrando la desconfianza personal, a pesar de la rutinaria ayuda militar. El último caso, Egipto, se vincula al segundo.

Es difícil justificar al gobierno de Mubarak, pero como heredero político de Sadat y representante del Estado laico que firmó la paz y reconocimiento de Israel, la situación requería de una clara política de compromiso, al menos para garantizar desde el principio una transición pacífica y laica.

Las dudas, efecto propio del poder ingenioso, han defraudado a un aliado cercano, sin que ello garantice la lealtad de un potencial sucesor.

Los tres ejemplos tienen un presumible impacto allende las fronteras de los afectados. ¿Cómo tomarán la errática conducta estadounidense Taiwán, Corea del Sur, Japón, Pakistán, o Arabia Saudita, cuya defensa y/o estabilidad están ligadas a acuerdos bilaterales con EEUU?

Dejar de ser un aliado confiable en un sistema multipolar es el peor negocio si se quiere preservar el orden.

This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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