Expensive Gasoline Stained Obama’s Reputation

Sociological polls conducted in the United States of America show that independent voters are turning away from Barack Obama, who badly needs their support to win in 2012. The increase of Americans who think that their country is moving in the wrong direction is noticeable: they number more than 60 percent. Specialists explain the population’s dissatisfaction by the jump in gasoline prices and the instigated unrest in North Africa and the Middle East.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Wednesday, 64 percent of Americans suppose that the U.S. is going the wrong way. This is the worst result since Obama took office in January 2009, if the data is to be trusted. Compared to last month, the number of respondents who disagree with the course of the country grew by seven percent.

Sociologist Cliff Young is convinced that the voters are not pleased with the jump in gasoline prices. Indeed, over the past two weeks, when the dramatic events in Libya —the largest oil-producing African country — unfolded, fuel prices in the United States jumped by 10 percent. Now, a gallon of gas on average costs a bit more than $3.50. “We are moving into a scenario in the near-term that is much more uncertain given the issue of gas prices,” noted the specialist.

Ever-costly gasoline, it seems, plays on Americans’ nerves more strongly than analysts’ arguments that instability in the greater Middle East restricts the U.S. counterterrorism efforts in the region. It is possible that Obama will have to meet voters halfway and uncork the strategic oil reserves. Such a measure, aimed at lowering prices, is not being ruled out by the White House.

However, it is clear that the rise in prices is not the only source of problems for the president’s administration. The daily squabbles between Democrats and Republicans about balancing the budget and the parties’ mutual accusations of undermining economic stability continue to intensify the polarization of society. Republicans criticize Democrats for not wanting to cut government spending and live within means, while Democrats criticize Republicans for undermining plans to create jobs. The public trusts either party less and less: a Bloomberg National Poll published yesterday showed that more than half of respondents are convinced that Obama does not have a strategy for reviving the country’s economy. Voters are even less confident that the Republicans have the right plan.

Meanwhile, the president’s falling approval rating among independent voters can be considered a warning signal — over the course of a month, the rating sank from 47 percent to 37 percent. It is thought that namely independent voters, who number about one-third of America’s general voting public, determine the outcome of the presidential race. Whether or not Obama is reelected in 2012 will largely depend on their votes. By the way, the polls are not revealing for the first time that independent voters have turned away from the Democratic president. But it is possible that Obama can make a successful comeback. “Independent voters in America are still called swing votes. For these, the two main parties, Democrats and Republicans, wage war. They can make a final decision just before election day,” noted Assistant Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies Valeriy Garbuzov in an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta. In his opinion, although the election is still a long way off, the situation for Obama is becoming more and more complicated.

On the other hand, not all experts on U.S. domestic politics are looking at Obama’s current position with pessimism. Washington Post columnist Chris Cillizza analyzes information from a different poll, conducted by Gallup, according to which 46 percent of Americans approve of Obama’s job as president. This is his worst showing in the research polls since the middle of last December. Cillizza recalls that just half a year ago, when Democrats anticipated a historical defeat in midterm congressional elections, people began to call Obama a one-term president. And already several months later, the White House claimed several victories, including the compromise with Republicans to extend tax cuts and the ratification with Russia of New START. Now Obama is losing inertia, particularly because of the increase in energy prices. However, Cillizza is sure that one doesn’t have to then talk about a long-term downward trend of Obama’s approval rating.

Well, one can only wish Obama luck. Indeed, his re-election would increase the chances of further positive development of contact between Washington and Moscow. In the case that a new person comes to power in the White House, no one could guarantee that the “resetting” of relations would continue. Valeriy Garbuzov sums up that at least a year would be lost for the relationship between Russia and the United States.