America’s Silence

Gadhafi is a poor role model for Arab dictators.

Governments as well as the opposition factions in the Arab world are currently watching developments in Libya very closely because the outcome may have consequences for them as well: Not only do protest movements in the various countries learn from one another, so too do their rulers.

After the fall of Tunisia’s Ben Ali and Egypt’s Mubarak came the Libyan revolt. The other rulers who saw the coming protests began handing out sedatives to their subjects: some put term limits on their tenures; some swapped out their entire governments; others announced imminent reforms or distributed money to the people. But now, owing to the counteroffensive in Libya, some of the Arab rulers feel like things have turned around. That applies specifically to the rulers of Yemen, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

Since Gadhafi’s counter-offensive against the Libyan rebels, the security forces in Yemen and Bahrain have taken a much harder line against opposition demonstrators. And now Saudi Arabia has dispatched troops to Bahrain as well.

For the Saudi rulers in Riyadh, it’s not just about giving help to a threatened king; it’s mainly intended to consolidate the power of the Al-Saud family. The campaign in Bahrain is intended to stop any Shiite protests in the eastern Saudi Arabian provinces. Locally, the intervention has caused an escalation that may eventually result in an increase in regional tensions.

In Washington, this latest development has been met mainly with silence. America’s 5th Fleet is stationed in Bahrain and the U.S., which has very good relations with the Saudis, has thus far failed to use its influence to counter this escalation. In doing so, they have come out on the side of the rulers in Bahrain and Riyadh. Yet, Gadhafi is a really poor role model for Arab dictators.