The Saudi Kingdom Is Silent — and Paying

A political defeat for the U.S. and Israel, like in Egypt, may not be fully out of the question for Saudi Arabia. Even this desert state could still pull off a strong “Jasmine Revolution.”

At the beginning of February, experts were swaying in the illusion that the Gulf nations are immune to revolts like in Tunisia or Egypt, “because the people there are doing so well”; however, many are not changing their minds. The rising price of oil coincides with this notion, because financial markets are expecting the spread of unrest in important oil-producing nations on the Gulf.

It would not be the first time that the price of oil in geopolitics has climbed decidedly upward, even when supply and demand are not taken into consideration. Decidedly, many analysts in Brussels and Washington have not yet understood that: There are no bread revolts taking place but rather political revolutions, whereby a new generation is demanding its rights. The Saudi Kingdom could still also stir up its own “Jasmine Revolution,” as is already the case with its neighboring emirates Bahrain and Oman.

The comparison with 1989 is gladly considered, back when the communist regimes fell one after the other. A reference to 1848 would also be a possible variant to think about. For just as it was in half of Europe, when students went to the barricades in order to wring a constitution out of the ruling houses, the middle classes from Morocco all the way to the Gulf also desire the recognition of fundamental basic rights.

No “Citizens” in the Gulf

The emancipation of the subjects into citizens with all their rights and responsibilities is under way. A “citizenry” could not develop itself in the Gulf, at least not until recently. He who pays no taxes certainly has no part. This old rule applies particularly to a country like Saudi Arabia, where subjects with a Saudi passport are spoiled with a generous social contract from their overseer, the king, and so make no demands.

The welfare state is going well for a privileged group, so long as sufficient means are available. With the sinking of the crude oil price in the ‘90s, the crown prince and current King Abdullah warned that the “years of plenty” would be over. Saudi Arabia could reduce its deficit, thanks to unexpected crude oil proceeds, and consequentially save its archaic societal structure into the 21st century.

The Sorrow of U.S. Agents

As the world discovered that 15 of the 19 alleged terrorists of Sept. 11 were Saudis, a massive “Saudi bashing” began. However, despite the initially harsh criticism by the U.S. on Saudi politics, their human rights conditions and terrorist connections, the old bridge with Washington could not be harmed.

The former CIA cooperative Robert Baer describes in his book “Sleeping with the Devil” the excesses of Saudi involvement and the pain of U.S. agents who were always being called back by the White House if they were to discover a “Saudi Connection” to terrorist organizations. But it apparently was the old saying of former Saudi Oil Minister Yamani that oil alliances are stronger than Catholic marriages.

The tribe of Saud could, thanks to its alliance with the Muslim Brothers of the Wahhabi, subdue other tribes from the 1920s on. The Hashemites, who were the former sheriffs of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, were expelled. The British, and later the Americans put faith in the Sauds. The alliance was forged in 1947 with U.S. crude oil concessions. The theocratic Saudi Arabia was, in addition, the best ally in the containment of communism as well as of all the Arabian nationalist movements.

Stronghold Against Iran

At present, Saudi Arabia sees itself as a bulwark against Iran. Thanks to WikiLeaks, we now know that King Abdullah pressured the U.S. to attack its Shi’ite Gulf neighbors. The king, who is around 83 years old and a chain-smoker, has been hospitalized since the beginning of November. From there, the invalid king was as surprised by the embarrassing WikiLeaks documents as by the recent revolutions.

Recently, he returned to Riyadh and immediately announced populist social programs in the amount of $36 billion. Through this, credits for houses should be easier to come by. The scant living area is a pressing problem in the face of a growing population of currently 18 million.

Saudi checkbook diplomacy has a tradition both within and outside the nation. Thanks to gas riches, the Saudi Kingdom began to substantiate its financial radius in the 1970s. Governments, most recently with Prime Minister Saad Hariri of Lebanon, and fundamentalists from West Africa over to the Caucasus and down to Southeast Asia were lubricated by the Saudis. Also paid were charitable works of all types in the Balkans as well as in the rest of Europe.

The Saudi and extremist influence of the Wahhabi Muslim Brotherhood was, only through reconsideration in the U.S. after the Sept. 11 attacks, cut off for the short term. But now the tremor is characterized by the continued existence of the Saudi “guarantor of stability.” An American and Israeli political defeat as with Egypt is not too far off with Saudi Arabia.

It is said that such an uprising could reach the country by March 11. Saudi Arabia produces around nine million barrels of crude oil per day and has the capacity to jump production when there is a deficiency elsewhere in the geopolitical oil market, as is the case these days with Libya. If you consider that the U.S. has recently completed its largest arms deal ever (namely armament for the Saudis in upwards of $60 billion), you ask yourself: How can Washington — in securing jobs at home — act so carelessly in its foreign affairs? For no one can say today into whose hands the new arsenal will fall.

Worries of a Power Vacuum

In addition, there is the fear that after the death of the sick king, a power vacuum will emerge. The succession would indeed be newly ruled and legitimate, but a dispute over inheritance between the hundred princes is not to be ruled out. What seems more urgent for Riyadh is to suppress the spread of revolution. But if Yemen falls, sparks will spread among the local tribes to the north. What will then come of that will, among other things, be apparent in the oil prices.