The Yemeni President Is Besieged on All Sides

Published in Nanfang Daily
(China) on 23 March 2011
by Jiang Wei (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Howard Segal. Edited by Jessica Boesl.
America Is Caught in a Dilemma in the Middle East and North Africa

It has been destined for Ali Abdullah Saleh to have an unforgettable birthday. In reality, he had absolutely no time to care for and celebrate his own birthday.

March 21 was the 69th birthday of Yemeni President Saleh. That night, he worked around the clock to see many people, government officials and military and tribal leaders. In the meetings with these different people he conveyed the same information: He was willing to step down before the end of the year. On March 22, Saleh’s spokesperson publicized Saleh’s position.

Saleh was still waiting for the opposition party to respond to his promise. But as Yemeni protestor Abdul al-Iryanisaid in an interview, “We can’t accept this kind of condition, we won’t leave until Saleh steps down.”

Saleh is Surrounded on All Sides

Last Friday, after the clash that took place between the crowds and the security forces resulted in close to 50 deaths, Saleh was besieged on all sides and his regime was in peril. At present, there are already dozens of senior officials and tribal leaders who have declared they would support the “peaceful revolution” of the masses. Yemen’s diplomatic envoys stationed in the European Union — Paris, Berlin, Brussels and Frankfurt —have asked Saleh, without exception, to step down. There are still even more people who have used resignation to express support for a “peaceful revolution,” including generals, tribal leaders and other major players.

According to CNN News reports, Saleh already accepted the demands raised by the opposition party, including: resigning before the end of this year, giving Yemenis the right to protest and not carrying out violent repression against them, setting up a committee to carry out investigations on attacks suffered by the demonstrators, making sure the families of demonstrators killed or injured receive state compensation, ensuring that the government carries out constitutional and electoral reform and requiring that Saleh’s family resign from the military.

“He has already ruled the country for 33 years, it is time for the arrival of democracy,” a Yemeni told this reporter.

Yemen is located on the southernmost tip of the Arabian peninsula, and is one of the poorest countries in the world. This is also a difficult country; the southern part has separatist forces, the sea is infested with pirates, its oil resources are nearing depletion and water resources are scarce. In Yemen, with a population of 28 million, more than one in three people is unemployed and half of the population has never had any education.

Beginning from Jan. 15, thousands upon thousands of Yemenis took to the streets in peaceful demonstrations demanding that President Saleh step down. The unemployment rate remained high and many people complained about the government — the rise in the price of goods and government corruption.

After experiencing last Friday’s bloodshed, analysts believe that the possibility of Saleh stepping down has increased. “And in the end how long can Saleh last? It depends to what extent the country makes noise and how he deals with this,” said Li Weijian, director of the Shanghai International Studies West African Research Centre.

America is Caught in a Dilemma in the Middle East and North Africa

Yemen is the native home of al-Qaida’s bin Laden. America’s Central Intelligence Agency believes that Yemen’s al-Qaida branch is the greatest threat to American security. After the Christmas bombing attempt occurred in 2009, America provided a total of about $70 million of military aid to Yemen the following year. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also announced last year that the United States Agency for International Development would provide approximately $121 million of developmental assistance to Yemen within three years.

“Yemen is America’s front line against terrorism. Over the years, America has always been supportive of Saleh,” said Vice President Jin Canrong of the Institute of International Relations at Renmin University in China. America’s attitude towards the Yemen situation thus seems ambiguous.

Yemeni Abdul al-Iryani hopes Obama is able to make a statement to make Saleh step down because this would exert some pressure on Saleh. He believes whether or not Saleh steps down will certainly not affect America’s counterterrorism strategy. “We all oppose al-Qaida. Saleh is only using the name of anti-terrorism to reach his hand out to America for money,” he explained to this reporter.

It now appears that the United States has exhibited great care by not exerting too much pressure on its fragile allies. “America’s predicament is very embarrassing, it can’t stand on the opposite side of public opinion, and yet also must take into account its own interests — in this way it became indecisive.”

Public demonstrations continue not just in Libya and Yemen, but also in Syria, Jordan and Bahrain. “The chaos of the Middle East and North Africa will continue for some time; these countries affect one another,” said Li Weijian.

“Originally, the demands had been relatively simple at the street demonstrations occurring in the Middle East and North Africa — mostly demands for social reforms be carried out. But after Western forces intervened, the situation turned even more complicated and several opposition parties became disillusioned,” believes Li Weijian. “And America’s attitude was quite realistic. It really does not want all countries to be chaotic, but wants to preserve a part of the regime for its own advantage.”

American issues expert Jin Canrong believes that in the long term, the United States will not change the shifting direction of its strategic focus toward the Asia-Pacific region, but, due to the sudden change of the Middle East situation, the rhythm of the strategic shift will be disrupted. America will look at the how the situation develops and consequently make some adjustments.


也门总统四面楚歌,美国在中东北非左右为难

这注定是让萨利赫难忘的一个生日,事实上,他根本无暇顾及为自己庆祝生日。

3月21日是也门总统萨利赫69岁生日。这天夜里,他马不停蹄地见了很多人,政府官员、军方首领和部族领袖,在这些和不同人的会面中,他传递了同样的信息:愿意在今年年底之前下台。3月22日,萨利赫的发言人对外公开了萨利赫的表态。

萨利赫还在等待反对派对他的承诺做出回应。但也门民众多里·阿尔亚尼在接受本报记者采访时说:“这样的条件不可接受,我们不会走,直到萨利赫下台。”

萨利赫四面楚歌

上周五,在示威人群与安全部队人员发生冲突,导致近50人死亡之后,萨利赫四面楚歌,政权危急。目前已经有数十位高官和部族领袖宣布支持民众的“和平革命”。也门派驻欧盟、巴黎、柏林、布鲁塞尔和法兰克福的外交使节无一例外地要求萨利赫下台。还有更多的人用辞职表达对“和平革命”的支持,其中包括将军、部族领袖等重量级人物。

据美国有线新闻网报道,萨利赫已经接受了反对派提出的要求,包括是:在今年年底前辞职;赋予也门人示威权利,不对他们进行暴力镇压;成立一个委员会对示威者遭受的袭击进行调查;示威死伤者的家人得到国家补偿;政府进行宪法和选举改革,萨利赫的家人必须从军队去职。

“他已经统治这个国家长达33年,是时候让民主到来了。”也门人纳贾特对本报记者表示。

也门位于阿拉伯半岛最南端,是世界上最为贫困的国家之一。这也是一个棘手的国家,南部有分裂势力,海上有海盗横行,石油资源接近枯竭,水资源稀缺。在也门2800万人口中,有超过三分之一的人没有工作,一半也门人没有接受过教育。

自1月15日起,成千上万的也门人走上街头举行和平示威,要求总统萨利赫下台。失业率居高不下,物价高涨,政府腐败,民众对政府多有怨言。

分析人士认为,在经过上周五的流血事件之后,萨利赫下台可能性增大。“而萨利赫到底能撑多久,取决于国内闹到什么程度,他又将如何应对。”上海国际问题研究院西亚非洲研究中心主任李伟建对本报记者表示。

美国在中东北非左右为难

也门是基地组织头目本·拉登的老家。在美国中央情报局看来,基地组织也门分支是美国安全的最大威胁。在2009年圣诞节炸机未遂事件发生后,美国在第二年向也门提供了总额约7000万美元的军事援助。美国国务卿希拉里还在去年宣布,美国将通过国际开发署在3年内向也门提供约1.21亿美元的发展援助。

“也门是美国的反恐前线,多年来美国一直对萨利赫持支持态度。”中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长金灿荣对本报记者说。美国在也门局势中的态度因而显得暧昧不清。

也门人多里·阿尔亚尼希望奥巴马能发表一份声明,让萨利赫下台,因为这样可以给萨利赫施加压力。她认为,萨利赫下台与否并不会影响到美国的反恐战略。“我们都反对基地组织,萨利赫只是借反恐之名向美国伸手要钱。”她对记者解释说。

现在看来,美国表现得格外谨慎,没有给脆弱的盟友施加过多压力。“美国处境很尴尬,既不能站在民意的对立面,又要考虑到自己的利益,因此变得犹豫不决。”

不仅仅是在利比亚和也门,在叙利亚、约旦、巴林,民众示威游行还在继续。“中东北非乱局还将持续一段时间,这些国家互相影响。”李伟建说。

“发生在中东北非的这些示威游行,本来诉求较为简单,大多是要求进行社会变革,但在西方势力介入之后,情况变得更加复杂,一些反对派心存幻想”,李伟建认为,“而美国在其中的态度很现实,它并非希望所有国家都乱,而是希望保留一部分对自己有利的政权。”

美国问题专家金灿荣认为,从长远来看,美国将战略重点向亚太转移的方向不会改变,但由于中东局势突变,战略转移的节奏将被打乱,美国将视事态的发展做出一些调整。
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