The U.S. and the Chaos in the Middle East

The Obama administration, which barely escaped the ridiculousness of the government shutting down because the Republican and Democratic Parties could not come to an agreement on the budget, took a deep breath of relief on Friday. Now Washington must quickly focus on the problems building up in the Middle East. Even though the most immediate problem is the ongoing war in Libya, there are many other situations that have turned into crises in the region.

As you may know, things are getting worse every day in Yemen and Syria, and both countries are strategically very important for the U.S.

Syria is key for the balance of power in the region, both because of Lebanon and Israel, and Iran. At the same time, it is a problematic country for the U.S., due to its organic ties with Hamas and Hezbollah. On the other hand, there is the fear in Washington that if Bashar Esad and the regime in Damascus fell, sectarian wars would begin, and the country would split. This is why the status quo in Syria is seen as the best of a series of bad alternatives. Yemen is critical, both because of its proximity to the Gulf oil and the Sunni-Shia balance in the region. The Ali Abdullah Saleh regime that has been in place for 32 years is most likely in its last days. But no one knows who would replace him. According to American intelligence agencies, Yemen is where al-Qaeda is strongest. This is not a coincidence, as Yemen is the most poor and politically unstable country in the Arab world. If the regime falls, there is a serious possibility that Yemen could turn into a pirate state like Somalia.

As if all this is not enough, Egypt is on the verge of a serious economic crisis. The military regime is not able to handle the economy, and political tensions are on the rise again.

In Bahrain, there is the calm before the storm. Despite the temporary stability, it seems like things may turn bloody at any minute. The problems in Iraq and Afghanistan do not even stand out anymore.

The Obama regime, in the face of such a chaotic picture, is working on crisis management rather than producing a strategy. Libya has the priority among all the crises. Even though the U.S. has turned the mission over to NATO, it is aware that the operation with the leadership of France and the UK is far from being resolved. The conflict between Gadhafi and the rebels is not creating a clear victory or defeat.

A knot that can potentially last for months is now possible. Therefore, for Washington, the needle is turning toward a political solution. It is still too early for negotiations between Gadhafi and the rebels. But according to calculations, the conflict will continue for two or three more weeks, and after military operations that are not likely to bring results, a political formula will be inescapable. Although Turkey’s enthusiasm to be a mediator in every situation may have started to become bothersome in Washington and even not taken seriously sometimes, Turkey is still one of the top countries that could play this role for Libya. Instead of seeming so overly enthusiastic, it would be better for Turkey to just be a little bit more patient.

Finally, let us briefly touch on the recognition of the Palestinian state that will be another headache for Washington very soon. As you may know, the Palestinian administration put in place the political willpower to declare its own state about two years ago. It should be regarded as completely normal that the Palestinian state be recognized by the international community and take its place in the United Nations. This is why Israel and the U.S. are facing the risk of once again being alone in the UN General Assembly in September.

But Washington, which is completely preoccupied with crisis management, cannot even put aside any time for this important matter.