The U.S. and E.U. in North Africa: An Alliance of Convenience

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 22 April 2011
by Wang Honggang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Marjorie Perry. Edited by Derek Ha.
Author Wang Honggang is the deputy director of the Institute for American Studies, which is part of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

North Africa's changing situation was originally one involving internal shifts caused by social movements. As soon as foreign powers intervened, however, it quickly turned into a game of territorial chess. As actions aimed at removing Muammar Gaddafi from power were undertaking, the U.S. and Europe emerged as the two major players in this game of chess. The relationship between Europe and the U.S. has always been complicated—as the Gaddafi situation changes, which direction will the relationship between these two powers go?

The United States, France, England and other major European countries are in control of North Africa's resources. There is significant common interest in promoting local democracy and defending Western power and prestige. Libya has considerable oil and natural gas reserves, and its economic and strategic value is clear. Although the surrounding region has experienced a “wave of democracy,” the wave has met a bottleneck in Libya due in large part to Gaddafi’s suppression of protesters. America and Europe are not able to sit idly by. Furthermore, as people around the world think that the Western world has gone downhill and non-Western countries rise, they do not want to miss this opportunity to show their teeth. These common interests and considerations are the most important factor behind their united action against Gaddafi.

These shared interests, however, cannot cover up deep geopolitical differences between the U.S. and Europe. North Africa is a crucial component to both America's and Europe's territorial strategy. Thus, the fundamental interest shared by both sides is actually fraught with competitive clamor. That is why their apparent "uniting of ranks" is not actually stable.

In America’s regional political plan, North Africa is a space in which to mold Europe’s development in the larger region. It is also the key site for establishing rules and regulations in order to prevent other nations from getting involved there. As the ‘global leader,’ America needs to be vigilant against all other major powers in the instance they have some hidden ambitions for elevating their status. Molding the developments of the border countries of these large powers is their ready response to this problem. To prevent the reemergence of Russia after the Cold War, America expanded NATO membership eastwards. They infiltrated the economies of surrounding nations and were heavily involved in the establishment of their political scenes. They used these tactics to exert pressure on Russia. The U.S., in order to fight terrorism, put large-scale military instillations in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Objectively speaking, we are also seeing South Asia being divided up as “America’s South Asia” and “India’s South Asia.” The U.S. has strongly encouraged India to take on a leadership role in East Asia. To prevent China and Japan from uniting the surrounding countries (thus creating a threat to the American presence in the region), the U.S. has taken a series of strategic maneuvers in the Asia-Pacific. As for the U.S.’s position on Latin America’s development, they also have a comprehensive, long-term plan to control the rise of newcomer Brazil by manipulating the development of its neighboring countries. As for America’s plan for the Middle East, it exercises even more influence on the major players in the area. For the same reason, even though Europe is America’s ally, its gradual expansion of power and increasing integration of its members is still something the U.S. needs to guard against. In fact, this task may be America's most important. Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and other North Africa countries just happen to be the channels through which Europe enters the region. North Africa's strategic importance in the American position towards Europe is evident.

From the European point of view, ever since World War II ended, they have been looking for new tactics to regain their influence. Britain, France and Germany, once great powers, are now on the decline as traditional industrial powers; they are fiercely seeking paths to revival. The establishment of the European Union embodies the efforts of these countries to unite in order to seek prosperity and reemerge as global players on the international stage. In order for European states to rise again, though, they must have a strong periphery to depend on. On the eastern side, Europe was successful with the help of the U.S. When the U.S. and Europe combined forces to face Russia, they also offhandedly accomplished their goal of expanding their spheres of influence eastward. On the southern side, Europe initiated the Barcelona Process of establishing partnerships between the E.U. and the Mediterranean basin. To expand its power further south, Europe's tactic is to strengthen the relationships between all of North Africa’s neighbors. Europe’s management of North Africa and its permeation and transformation of the area is all aimed at finding a good launching pad for its revival. Africa is still a place not totally open to the outside world; if Europe can create a ‘backyard’ for itself there in this multi-polar world, it will truly establish a stable foundation upon which to restore itself economically and politically. This plan possesses great strategic significance.

Thus, in terms of their current common interest in pushing for a regime change in Libya, America and Europe are in the same boat. In the future, as soon as there is some change in the situation, conflicts between the two will flare up. In fact, we can easily imagine that if the U.S. eventually establishes a command center in Libya, this geopolitical development would cause the Euro-U.S.A. relationship to experience a seismic shift. Of course, the competition over North Africa is only one aspect in the alliance between these two powers. Naturally, they also work together to keep out any third parties from interfering in the region. Additionally, reflecting on the deep, global common interests that the two powers share and their habit of helping one another, we will most likely see a situation where they struggle but do not annihilate each other; one achieves primary status, the other maintains secondary status.


摘要:无论是在美国还是在欧洲的地缘战略中,北非都是一个极为关键的节点,而双方在这一区域的根本利益是竞争性的。因此双方的“统一阵线”并不稳定。
  作者:王鸿刚 中国现代国际关系研究院美国所副所长


  北非变局本是一场内生性的社会运动,但当外部力量介入后,它很快演变为一场大国之间的战略博弈。“打卡”进程的展开标志着美国和欧洲成为这场大国博弈的主角。美欧关系历来复杂,随着“打卡”形势的变化,美欧关系又将朝什么方向发展?


  美国和法英等欧洲大国在掌控北非资源、推进地区民主和捍卫西方权威等方面拥有广泛的共同利益。利比亚的油气储备在全球能源版图中分量可观,其经济和战略价值显而易见;眼见已成势头的地区“民主浪潮”在卡扎菲对反对派的穷追猛打中戛然而止,美欧也不能坐视不管;而且,在世人普遍认为西方世界整体衰落、非西方国家群体崛起的背景下,他们也急于借此机会“露露牙齿”。这些共同的利益与考量是他们联手“打卡”的重要动力。


  但这些共同之处并不能掩盖双方在地缘政治方面的深层分歧。无论是在美国还是在欧洲的地缘战略中,北非都是一个极为关键的节点,而双方在这一区域的根本利益是竞争性的。因此双方的“统一阵线”并不稳定。


  在美国的地缘政治版图中,北非是塑造欧洲发展空间的战略抓手和规制其进入非洲的重要门户。作为“全球领导”,美国需要防范来自所有其他大国对自身地位的潜在挑战。塑造这些大国的周边发展空间,是很重要的地缘应对手段。为防范俄罗斯依托周边重新崛起,冷战后美国一直通过北约东扩、经济渗透、政治改造等手段经营前苏联国家,挤压俄周边战略空间;美以反恐为契机大举进军阿巴两国,客观上也将南亚分割成“美国的南亚”和“印度的南亚”,有力“引导”印度在南亚“做大”的势头;为防止中国、日本通过整合周边和推进地区一体化削弱美主导地位,美国在亚太地区采取一系列投棋布子的战略举措;美国对拉美的长期全方位经营,也一定程度上塑造了新兴大国巴西的周边发展空间;美国对中东的长期布局,更挤压了其他大国在该地区的影响力。同理,欧洲虽是美国盟友,但一个日趋一体化并不断向周边拓展的欧洲同样也是美国需要防范、甚至是最需要防范的对象。利比亚、突尼斯、埃及等北非国家,正好是欧洲国家南下非洲的必经之路,其在美国对欧地缘战略中的意义不言而喻。


  从欧洲方面看,二战结束以来,英法德等曾经盛极一时却日趋没落的传统工业强国也在努力寻找复兴之路。欧盟的成立就体现了这些国家联合图强、东山再起的战略目的。而欧洲的再崛起也需要一个有利的周边依托。在东面,欧盟成功借助美国之力,在合力应对俄罗斯的过程中顺利实现“东扩”;在南面,则通过“巴塞罗那进程”推进“新地中海政策”,在“南下”过程中全方位强化同北非邻国的关系。对欧洲而言,对北非的经营、渗透与改造,可为欧洲实现全面崛起找到强有力的战略支撑。非洲是一块尚未被完全开发的土地,将北非打造为自家“后院”,对欧洲在多极世界中站稳脚跟和实现经济政治全面复兴,具有战略意义。


  所以,基于目前对利比亚政权更迭的共同利益,美欧尚能同舟共济;未来一旦形势变化,美欧矛盾势必上升。我们甚至可以大胆设想,若美国最终将非洲司令部建在利比亚,那么该地区的地缘格局将发生对美欧关系影响极为深远的重大变化。当然,在北非的竞争只是美欧关系的一部分,在防止“第三方”涉足非洲的问题上,美欧有着更为深切的战略共识。另外,鉴于双方在全球层面的利益攸关程度和相互之间的传统联系纽带,斗而不破或将是二者在北非最有可能出现的关系状态。▲(作者是中国现代国际关系研究院美国所副所长。)
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