Terrorist: Dead; Ideology: Alive

Osama bin Laden was dead long before he was shot. Ten years after 9/11, the world has moved on to an agenda that excludes the bearded terrorist. Nevertheless, the world awaits some political reaction. But as unlikely as it was that one man could start two wars, it’s just as unlikely that his death will suddenly stop both of them.

Osama bin Laden is having just as destructive an effect after his death as he ever had during his worst periods in life. His assassination was a long-planned and even longer hoped-for event. What’s astounding about it, however, is the fact that the political ramifications it would cause really hadn’t been well-thought-out by the U.S. government.

And so bin Laden’s ghost, its outlines already faded, suddenly rises once again and forces the United States and the rest of the world to make another difficult commitment: What happens now in the world’s most dangerous war zone? What happens to all the soldiers and aid personnel in Pakistan and Afghanistan? And above all: Who will take bin Laden’s place on the list of greatest threats?

To be totally honest, Osama bin Laden had long been dead before he was killed in his compound. His significance had already faded in the Western mind as had his operative role in al-Qaida, despite the fact that computer drives containing new terror plans were found in his possession. The myths surrounding him began quietly evaporating even among the world’s jihadists. Ten years after 9/11, the world was occupied with a new agenda, one on which the bearded terrorist no longer had a place. He may have raised a few nostalgic feelings among some religious warriors, but in reality he had already been relegated to the role of the forgotten.

Now that he’s dead, the emotion released is no longer proportionate to the reality of his significance in past years. The excitement is understandable, and considering the enormity of the man’s collective crimes, the joy caused by his death is even understandable, although it may not be politically correct to say so publicly. With their hatreds mass murderers, fanatical ideologues and dictators provoke emotional outbursts from those who have survived; joy and satisfaction among the survivors is an understandable response.

Deliverance from Violence

The emotional release is not enough; people now expect a dividend. They want compensation for all the victims of the last 10 years. There has to be some change in policy now. The terror was made up of many small but frightening things; now the death of a single extremist has awakened the desire for a major political response.

But the truth is, bin Laden’s demise has little practical effect. As unlikely as it was that one man could start two wars, it’s just as unlikely that his death will suddenly stop both of them. As much as 9/11 is seen as a historical watershed, the events of May 2, 2011 can’t make an equally dramatic historic change. Even if the tortured souls cry out for deliverance, the thought that an alarm clock suddenly going off will rescue them from their nightmares is bizarre at best.

Unfortunately, that appears to be exactly what’s taking place. In the United States, a majority of Americans think bin Laden’s death heralds the end of the war on terror; the mission in Afghanistan has been completed. Republicans want to accelerate the troop withdrawal. Similar pressure is building in Germany as well.

America’s differences with its difficult ally Pakistan have been made more complicated because many in the U.S. think that unholy alliance should now be ended. In looking back, many analysts are already referring to the past 10 years as a lost decade, a historical aberration during which the West got entangled in Islamic unrest while the real challenge was lurking in East Asia.

Responsibility for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Israel

Perhaps Barack Obama is being praised as a foreign policy expert because he is demonstrating a new way out of the lost decade, as though he found a secret formula for lasting peace. Of course, it’s not that simple, as evidenced by the tanks rumbling through Syria, the al-Qaida cells still active in other regions or the Taliban’s reaction to bin Laden’s death in Abbottabad.

Osama bin Laden’s death won’t really affect the major political developments of the day unless some bright conclusions can be drawn from it. Above all, it should provide the United States with reason to re-evaluate its influence in the crisis-ridden Islamic world and recognize the responsibility it has taken on there.

Containing the Taliban

That applies firstly to Afghanistan. The scarcity of positive news from there during the past few months makes any talk of a planned reduction in ISAF troops impossible. Even though domestic pressure for a draw down will increase on Obama, Afghanistan will still require a couple of years of support from the international community. Bin Laden’s death will make it easier for the Taliban to cut whatever remaining ties it has to al-Qaida. Those loyalties died with bin Laden. The Taliban will return to Afghanistan because they want their country free of foreign troops. But the West can only withdraw if the Taliban promises credible restraint and includes others in taking responsibility for the nation.

Beyond Afghanistan, America’s responsibility for Pakistan is less critical than for the most unstable nations (other than Yemen, which is strategically less significant). Regardless of the sharp words flying between the United States and Pakistan, their mutual dependence can’t be denied.

America’s most important responsibility is now toward Israel. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is at the epicenter of an Islamic-Western confrontation that nourished al-Qaida so wonderfully. In the next few days, Obama will formulate his expectations concerning Israel to be presented in a key speech — expectations that, in view of the revolutionary events happening there now, may turn out to be inadequate. Syria is currently in pre-spring mode, Egypt has decided in favor of abandoning its old foreign policy entirely, and even the Palestinians are making peace in view of the dissatisfaction growing in their streets.

Thus, bin Laden’s death only has symbolic power because the huge Arab democracy movement is demonstrating the alternatives to radical Islam and dictatorship.

In the end, it isn’t about decapitating the al-Qaida movement as much as it is about defeating its ideology. The West may find satisfaction in the death of the man, but the 2nd of May will only achieve lasting meaning when it becomes the symbol of renewal, inner reconciliation and peace in the Islamic world.