Worries Remain over Afghanistan’s Independence

Published in Nikkei
(Japan ) on 24 June 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Taira Ishikura. Edited by Derek Ha.
President Obama has announced a plan for the withdrawal of American forces in Afghanistan. The withdrawal is expected to begin in July, and it aims to have 33,000 personnel back in the United States by the summer of 2012. It was a tough decision for the Obama administration, which faced an increasing need to reduce the operation cost while worries remain over security in Afghanistan.

100,000 U.S. military personnel are currently stationed in Afghanistan. The administration had strengthened the fight against terrorism by allocating 30,000 additional troops based on the strategic plan announced at the end of 2009. On the other hand, it made a promise to start the withdrawal in July.

The president emphasized that the increase in the number of personnel led to success in the extermination operations against terrorist organizations such as al-Qaida. Obama called the successful assassination of Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the 9/11 attack, a “victory.”

NATO had already decided to transfer complete control of security to Afghanistan by the end of 2014, and the U.S. withdrawal is part of this exit strategy.

Moreover, an anti-war atmosphere spread within the United States as public opinion suggested that the government should reduce the enormous military operation cost and allocate more to reducing the mounting debt and economic recovery. The expected accession of Leon Panetta, the current director of the CIA and an advocate for efficient security maintenance, to the position of Secretary of Defense also seems to help the withdrawal begin.

The future of Afghan stability remains of particular concern. Ideally, recovery and reconstruction of a nation should progress in accordance with its own discretion and responsibility. However, those supposed to be in charge of security enforcement, such as the national armed forces and police, are not being trained enough.

The Karzai administration’s governance capacity is also unconvincing as its corruption has often called attention to. Furthermore, its talks with anti-governmental forces such as the Taliban remain dubious. The influence of the Taliban has already spread to neighboring Pakistan, where bin Laden was in hiding; and that the assassination has raised anti-American sentiment is alarming.

Afghanistan is the breeding ground for international terrorist organizations and the most dangerous region in the world. The international community must continue to support the country as the United States starts the withdrawal. Assistance for former Taliban soldiers, such as vocational training and agricultural development, may be the key for Afghanistan’s independence. Japan must pay closer attention and think seriously of ways to contribute to stability in Afghanistan.



アフガン自立へ不安は残る
2011/6/24付

 米国のオバマ大統領がアフガニスタンに駐留する米軍部隊の撤収計画を発表した。7月から撤収を始め、来年夏までに3万3千人を帰還させる。アフガニスタンの治安維持の課題を残しつつ、戦費削減を迫られた米政権の苦渋の決断といえる。

 アフガニスタンには現在、約10万人の米軍が駐留している。オバマ政権は2009年末に打ち出した新戦略に基づき、約3万人を増派してテロ掃討作戦を強める一方、今年7月からの撤収開始を公約していた。

 大統領は今回、米軍の増派が国際テロ組織アルカイダの掃討などで成果をあげたと強調した。01年の米同時テロ事件の首謀者、ウサマ・ビンラディン容疑者の殺害については「勝利だ」と語った。

 北大西洋条約機構(NATO)は14年末までに、アフガニスタン側に治安権限を完全に移譲することを決めている。米軍の撤収開始もこうした出口戦略の一環である。

 同時に、米国内では厭戦(えんせん)気分が広がり、巨額の戦費を減らして財政赤字の削減や景気対策に充てるべきだとの意見が強まっていた。効率的な安保政策を唱えるパネッタ中央情報局(CIA)長官が国防長官に就くことも、撤収開始を後押ししたといえる。

 懸念されるのは、アフガニスタン情勢の行方だ。国家の復興や治安回復は本来、当事者の裁量と責任で進めるのが筋だ。しかし、治安維持にあたるべき国軍と警察の訓練や育成はなかなか進んでいない。

 汚職や腐敗が指摘されるカルザイ政権の統治能力にも疑問が残る。反政府勢力タリバンや同調する勢力との和解交渉もおぼつかない。タリバンの勢力圏がビンラディン容疑者の潜伏していた隣国パキスタンにも広がり、同容疑者の殺害で反米感情が増していることも気掛かりだ。

 アフガニスタンは国際テロ組織の温床で、世界で最も危険な地域だ。米軍が撤収を始めるなか、国際社会が全体で支えていかなければならない。タリバン元兵士の職業訓練や農業開発といった民生支援は自立のカギを握る。日本ももっと関心の目を向け、アフガニスタンの安定にどのような貢献ができるかを真剣に検討していく必要がある。
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