U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan and Development of the Afghanistan Situation

After the U.S. disposed of Osama bin Laden, Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai said, “Ten years of fighting the war on terror, and in the end bin Laden was found in Pakistan; therefore, in the future Afghanistan should not be the battle ground for the war on terror, it should be Pakistan instead.” In reality, the Afghan government is not optimistic.

On Nov. 20, 2010, in Lisbon, Portugal, NATO reached an agreement that confirmed that NATO’s security forces in Afghanistan would cease combat duties and complete the transfer of security at the end of 2014. Then NATO troops in Afghanistan would take on supporting roles such as training and leading troops.

Currently, there are a total of 48 countries participating in NATO’s military activities in Afghanistan, a force over 130,000 strong. There are approximately 100,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. On June 22, 2011, President Obama announced plans for troop withdrawal from Afghanistan: Beginning by the end of this year, America will pull out 10,000 troops from Afghanistan. Before the end of the summer of 2012 another 23,000 will be withdrawn — a total of 33,000 troops. The transfer of security duties will be completed in 2014.

Last year the U.S. implemented its strategic plan by recognizing that Pakistan and Afghanistan are equally important and having the U.S. lead Afghan troops first. Then, after there was a sense of unity among the Afghan troops, the U.S. moved forward with its plan to withdrawal its troops from Afghanistan. The U.S. will use its soft and hard methods to deal with the Taliban. Although NATO troops in Afghanistan have increased their efforts to suppress the Taliban, there have been no obvious results. Roadside bombs, suicide bombers and other militant attacks from the Afghani Taliban have clearly increased; its targets are markets, airports, NATO military bases, government buildings and homes of U.N. workers. In May of this year, in Kandahar, the Taliban initiated a new wave of attacks on NATO troops.

Following the rise in casualties of NATO troops, NATO member states have markedly different opinions on the topic of troops in Afghanistan. The Netherlands and Canada have already pulled out or have decided to pull out of Afghanistan. More and more NATO member states have anti-war sentiments. Although it was announced at the NATO summit that took place in Portugal, that in 2014 the responsibility for Afghanistan’s security would be handed over to the Afghan government and troops, in reality the strategic goal of the U.S., “use Afghanistan to control Afghanistan,” has recently been difficult to implement. The U.S. is looking to have discussions with “moderate” Taliban members, but there is a great divide between each country’s positions; and the Afghani Taliban will continue to fight. From Karzai’s point of view, Afghan security needs at least 5 years before it can guarantee domestic security, and Afghanistan will be dependent on the U.S.’s economic and military aid for the next 20 years. In order to maintain its long term strategic interests in Afghanistan, the U.S. has recently been improving its relations with the Karzai government. While at the same time, U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan have increased the training intensity of the Afghan security troops. Currently, the Afghan national army is 70,000 strong. The U.S. Department of Defense’s goal is that the Afghan army and police force will have 282,000 people — 123,000 police officers and 159,000 soldiers — by July 2011.

The Afghan Battlefield Is Still too Unwieldy

According to NATO’s plans, the main directive of the multi-nation NATO troops stationed in Afghanistan in 2014 will be to train Afghan troops. However, NATO will not pull out of Afghanistan. The Taliban has again called for the departure of foreign troops from Afghanistan; the Afghani Taliban has threatened to get rid of the U.S.-led multi-nation troops on Afghani soil. Currently, Taliban activity has become more and more common, and in a few areas, many civilians, during a dispute, will turn and help the Taliban’s “shadow government,” causing the Taliban influence to increase. Although, the U.S. has begun discussions with the Taliban, the militants have not put down their weapons; in fact the Taliban is eyeing a return to power. Of the 34 provinces in Afghanistan, the Taliban has already established its shadow government in 32.

The Taliban’s attacks have also spread to peaceful areas in the north and west. Under these circumstances, the international opinion is that, in view of Afghanistan’s worsening situation, the duration of NATO’s troop presence will lengthen; it may pass the current stated goal of 2014. NATO military officers believe the process of NATO’s transfer of security responsibility to the Afghan government will be a slow and lengthy process. It will start in the districts and then slowly spread towards the provincial level; once the transfer of security responsibilities is complete, NATO troops will turn attention to the dangerous regions. Currently two thirds of militant attacks are centralized in three provinces: Kandahar and Helmand in the south and Kunar in the north. These provinces may become the last security responsibility transfer areas. The period of time that NATO forces are stationed in these provinces will be longer than other provinces. By 2014, these soldiers will become military training personnel or consultants, but they will still remain active in Afghanistan. When the 2014 deadline comes, only a small number of soldiers stationed in Afghanistan will be able to return home.

Currently, the U.S. is increasing its attacks against the Taliban from Afghanistan and Pakistan, and it is also actively increasing its military cooperation with India. In hopes of increasing its influence in southern and central Asia, the U.S. will not walk away from Afghanistan. It remains difficult for the security situation in Afghanistan to undergo great change in the near future.