New Era

Published in Lidové noviny
(Czech Republic) on 3 August 2011
by Lenka Zlámalová (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Mark Nuckols. Edited by Nathan Ladd  .
With the words “Yes, we can!” Barack Obama announced a new era. Now it is really here, but not the way he imagined it. Standard & Poor’s has taken its AAA rating away from the United States.

For the first time in history, America has ceased to be the world’s most reliable debtor, and the global economy has lost the stable axis on which it used to revolve. The days when American government debt was synonymous with risk-free investment and the dollar was a reserve currency are coming to an end.

Perhaps that would sound like an exaggeration had it not been said by Mohamed El-Erian, head of PIMCO, the world’s largest bond trader, and the Chinese government and ruling party, America’s largest creditor. El-Erian’s brokers and Beijing will start deciding today what will happen next on both coasts of a Euro-Atlantic civilization overburdened with debt.

In El-Erian’s view, it is difficult to imagine that, after the fall of America, others would not be eliminated from the elite AAA club. He has mentioned France. That would mean the end of rescue operations in the Eurozone, unless Germany is willing to become the sole financier and sacrifice 56 percent of its GDP to the cause. A wild era is coming, one that calls for minimal debt and a maximally adaptable economy.


Yes, we can! Tak ohlašoval Barack Obama novou éru. Opravdu přišla, takhle si ji ale asi nepředstavoval. Ratingová agentura Standard & Poor’s sebrala Spojeným státům nejvyšší známku AAA.

Amerika přestala být poprvé v historii nejspolehlivějším dlužníkem a celá světová ekonomika přišla o pevnou osu, kolem které se točila. Časy, kdy americký vládní dluhopis byl synonymem pro bezrizikový a dolar rezervní měnou, končí.

Možná by to znělo přehnaně, pokud by to neřekli Mohamad El-Erian, šéf největšího obchodníka s dluhopisy PIMCO, a čínská vláda a strana, největší věřitel Ameriky. El-Erianovi brokeři a Peking dnes začnou rozhodovat, co se bude na obou březích předlužené euroatlantické civilizace dít dál.

Podle El-Eriana je těžké si představit, že po pádu Ameriky nebudou z elitního klubu AAA vyřazeni další, a zmiňuje Francii. To by znamenalo konec záchranných operací v eurozóně, pokud by Německo nebylo ochotno stát se jediným financiérem a obětovat na ně 56 procent svého HDP. Přichází divoká éra, do níž je rozumné jít s co nejmenšími dluhy a co nejpřizpůsobivější ekonomikou.
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