U.S. Debt May Hurt U.S. Moral Image

Published in ifeng
(Hong Kong) on 12 August 2011
by Shen Hongpu (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Pak Ng. Edited by Jenette Axelrod.
The issues of American and European debt have become important topics in people’s recent conversations. In fact, these are two totally irrelevant problems because the core issue of the U.S. debt has been about raising the national total debt limit so that the government is allowed to continue to borrow money in a deficit situation, while the essence of the European debt crisis is that some countries like Greek and Portugal have lost the ability to pay off their debts and therefore are simply unable to pay due debt. In regard to the downgrading of the U.S. debt rating by Standard & Poor’s, in the short term it should not damage the U.S.’s ability to borrow money, not to mention that it certainly would not hurt the U.S. dollar’s reserve status because the U.S. dollar itself is the debt certificate signed by the U.S. Treasury. The interest rate of U.S. bonds is so low but is still treated as every nation’s reserve capital, the bottom line has to do with the U.S.’ incompatible political and military strengths, and this absolutely cannot be matched by countries like Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain. As Buffett and Obama have said, “No matter what some agency may say, we've always been and always will be a AAA country.” Don’t ever think that these were just angry words.

However, has the United States been able to avoid any damages at all after this fight? I, as an author, think that this time the United States has sunk deeply into the debt vortex, and therefore it has already hurt the moral image that the U.S. has nurtured with great effort. In the long run, this will become an issue with a long-term impact.

First of all, the power struggles between the executive branch and the legislative branch implicated other countries in the troubles, and constituted suspicion of neglecting international responsibilities. What led to impeding actions between the two branches and the fighting between the two parties this time was of course caused by core differences in directions and interests adopted by the congress and the government. Congress wanted to possess the power to determine the U.S. federal government’s highest limit of its total debt, and thus interfere or control the federal government’s budget and spending; meanwhile, the government wanted to gain more space in policies in a relaxed environment to be able to borrow more capital under a deficit condition through the increase of the limit of total debt, push for economic recovery and eventually carry out the goal of deficit reduction.

However, the Democrats wanted to link other complicated issues to the subject of increasing the national debt limit with its own wishful thinking to see all around results in many areas such as revenue increases, spending cuts and the tax system. This actually led to further complications and intensifications of the problems and conflicts. For example, the Democrats became entangled in issues like different tax brackets between different income groups in the country, threatening to greatly increase taxes on the rich and therefore directly hurt Republicans’ fundamental basis. This has led to a power struggle between the two parties so that legislation that should have been voted on was not voted on and no one could quickly come into line. Looking at it from this perspective, we can call the U.S. debt issue an “artificial crisis.” Both parties, especially the Democrats, who bet with the U.S.’ reputation this time, will increase outsiders’ suspicions about their ability to carry out responsibilities and directly affect the country’s credibility.

Secondly, the traditional concept of living within one’s means was abandoned, and the habit of eating tomorrow’s grain today will lead to a deficit hole that is very difficult to fill. The United States was a country built on Puritan core ideology, and observing good faith was the basic religious belief. Based on this belief, the United States should not allow outsiders to worry about its capability to pay off its debts. Historical experience has shown that in 1812 the war between the U.S. and Great Britain made the U.S. government owe a huge debt, but the then U.S. President Jackson swore that the U.S. government would pay off all debts at any price. After this promise was carried out, the United States’ international image was greatly improved. Of course, the United States has participated in many major wars since then, which has led to repeated increases of U.S. national debt and numerous adjustments and raising the limit of the national debt until the formation of an international economic system in which the Americans demand and spend like crazy, while foreigners manufacture and supply nonstop. Today, spending with debt has become every American’s habit as well as the nation’s habit. Such habit covers up the tradition of observing good faith with the desire to spend, and politicians even intentionally or unintentionally neglect the necessity of balancing deficit. One such example was the health care system reform that Obama wholeheartedly promoted after he entered the White House. This reform did not fully consider the U.S. financial tolerance, so in this round of the debt crisis, the just-passed health care reform package was immediately brought up by Republicans as a bargaining chip for spending cuts. Looking at Obama’s not-so-confident promise of deficit reduction, the Democrats will not be capable at all, as every one expected, of achieving the goal of reducing the deficit by four trillion dollars. All Democrats want is a smooth re-election, and the huge U.S. financial deficit is in no way to be effectively reduced in the next four years.

What is worth of consideration is that at the time the U.S. has deeply sunk into debt controversy, some international organizations controlled by this most powerful country in the world, such as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, were indifferent and could not present any constructive ideas. This can’t help but make people doubt that the international economic stabilization mechanism guided and established by the U.S. has any ability to provide support when the U.S. economy itself faces serious challenges. In the past, these two organizations adopted some measures and pointed figures when problems exploded in other countries. They were seen as an extension of the United States’ international influence. However, if both organizations are incapable of doing anything when the U.S. faces problems, then this proves that they are just the United States’ dependents and lack any actual power to maintain stability. This will further weaken the United States’ influence in the international economic sphere.

To sum up, the existence of the above factors will not lead outsiders to eliminate any suspicions on the instability of the U.S. debt issue. Such suspicions are damaging the image of integrity that the United States established in the last two hundred years. They will also make the U.S. lose confidence based on tradition and morals when it talks to every national creditor.


美债问题和欧债问题成为当前人们谈论的重点话题。事实上,这是两个完全不相关的问题。因为美债问题的核心是提升国家债务总额上限,允许政府在赤字状 况下继续借钱;而欧债危机本质是希腊、葡萄牙等国丧失了偿债能力,根本无法支付到期债务。至于美国债务评级被标普调低,在短期内也并不会损伤美国的借债能 力,更不会伤及美元的储备地位,因为美元本身就是美国财政部签发的债务凭证,美国国债利息如此之低,还被当作各国储备资产,底气是美国无与伦比的政治、军 事实力,这绝非希腊、葡萄牙乃至意大利、西班牙等国可比。用巴菲特和奥巴马的话说,就是“无论标普怎么看,美国国家信用评级永远是AAA”。别以为这是气 话。

但经此一役,美国是否全无损害呢?笔者以为,此次深陷债务漩涡,已经伤及美国苦心经营的道德形象。长期内,这将会是个影响深远的问题。

首先,府院争斗使别国遭池鱼之殃,有缺乏国际责任的嫌疑。此次出现的美国府院掣肘、两党群殴,核心当然在于国会和政府的利益取向差别——— 国会有权确定美国联邦政府债务总额的最高限额,以此干预或控制联邦政府的预算和支出;而政府力求在宽松环境中获得更多政策空间,通过调高债务总额上限,在 赤字条件下也可借入资金,推动经济复苏最终实现减赤目标。但是,由于民主党在调高国债上限议题的同时,还要捆绑其他复杂问题,一厢情愿地希图在增收、节支 以及税制等多个领域全面开花,才招致问题复杂化、矛盾尖锐化。比如,民主党纠缠于美国不同收入人群的税负差别,扬言对富人大举增税,就直接伤及共和党基本 盘。进而引发两党的角力,该表决的无法及时表决、无法迅速取得一致。从此角度看,美债问题堪称一场“人造危机”。两党(尤其是民主党)此番拿美国声誉下 注,将招致外部对其负责任能力的怀疑,直接影响国家公信力。

其次,量入为出的传统理念被抛弃,寅吃卯粮的习气将导致亏空难以弥补。美国是个以清教徒理念为核心立国的国家,其中恪守诚信是基本宗教信条。从此出 发,美国不应让外界对其支付债务的能力有任何担忧。就历史经验看,1812年美英战争曾经令美国政府欠下巨额债务,当时美国总统杰克逊曾誓言不惜一切代价 还清所有债务,当实现这一承诺后,美国国际形象得到了极大提升。当然,这之后因参与多次大战,导致美国国家债务反复攀升,国债上限也历经了无数次调升…… 直至形成美国人拼命消费,外国人拼命生产的国际经济秩序。今天,欠债消费成为每个美国人的习惯,也成为美国的国家习惯。这样的习惯使得诚信传统被消费欲望 所掩盖,政客们更有意无意忽视平衡赤字的必要。例如奥巴马上台后全力推动的医疗保险体制改革,就未充分考虑美国财政的实际承受力,使得刚刚通过的医改方 案,在本轮债务危机中旋即被共和党提出作为削减支出的谈判筹码。从奥巴马底气不足的减赤承诺看,民主党根本无力实现众所期待的减赤四万亿目标,所要的只是 顺利连任而已,巨大的美国财政赤字在未来四年也无法得到有效弥补。

更值得思考的是,在美国深陷债务问题争议的同时,由这个全球最强大国家控制的国际货币基金组织和世界银行等国际组织竟无动于衷,提不出建设性意见。 这不禁令人疑虑,由美国主导成立的国际间经济金融稳定机制,是否有能力在美国经济自身面临严峻挑战时施以援手。过往,这两家机构均曾在他国爆发问题时有所 举措并指指点点。它们被视为美国国际影响力的外延。但如果在美国面临问题时,两者无所作为,那么将证明其不过是美国附庸而已,缺乏出手维稳的实际力量,这 会使得美国在国际经济领域内的影响力进一步变得单薄。

总而言之,以上因素的存在将导致无法消弭外界对美国债务问题不确定性的疑虑。而这种疑虑正在损害美国二百年来树立起的诚信形象,也会让美国将来在面对各债权国时缺乏基于传统道德的发言底气。
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