The United States: the Winner of Libya's Transition?

After resolving the Lockerbie case thanks to the United Kingdom’s mediation, Gadhafi’s regime once again was able to restore relations with the West. It also reconstructed and revived the oil industry as the country’s most important source of income. The United Kingdom and some European countries, like France and Italy, were the main winners in this case. However, China and Russia also obtained an appropriate share in Africa’s most oil-rich country.

The European multinational corporations and, above all, British Petroleum took the control of Libya’s oil production and distribution. At this juncture, Libya exported 85 percent of its oil to Europe and guaranteed the provision of Europe’s energy. Europeans made an enormous profit through these oil interactions. Russian and Chinese oil companies also enjoyed some benefits in Libya. For instance, over 30,000 Chinese were working in various fields of Libya’s economy and industry. The remaining 15 percent of Libya’s oil is exported to China. Therefore, any alteration in Libya’s political system would certainly not be desirable to Europe, Russia and China.

Therefore, Libya’s transition can be considered as the starting point of the United States’ desire to establish its dominating presence in this country.

NATO intervention happened only after the United States was assured by the Europeans and the revolutionaries of its share of the profits in Libya. Undoubtedly, the Libyan revolutionaries could not achieve their purpose without the intervention of NATO, led by the United States, since the evidence showed that Gadhafi could push them away.

NATO involved itself in the confrontation and turned the tide in favor of the Libyan revolutionists. The U.S.’ goals in intervening are as follows:

*To obtain an appropriate and/or perhaps the foremost share in the profits of Libya’s oil industry and economy.

*To apply the lessons learned in Afghanistan and arrange the political future of Libya to its own benefit through the use of its intelligence and security agencies. This important task will be taken care of after the complete destruction of the structures left from the time of Gadhafi regime.

*To put an end to Gadhafi’s regime, considered a history lesson for those who attack U.S. interests. On the other hand, after the killing of Osama bin Laden, Gadhafi’s future will eventually lead to the improvement of the U.S.’ position in the region and the world. And after all, through the case of Libya, the U.S. might be able to justify its foreign interventions in the eyes of the American public after its numerous failures in Afghanistan and Iraq.

*The United States is going to block the influence of China and Russia in this important oil-rich country, just as it did in Sudan. Then, the United States will have more control and focus on the pathways of energy to China. Libya, at this point, is a perfect tool for restraining the emerging power of China.

*Given that Libya is the first actual case in which an Arab movement succeeded thanks to NATO intervention, the failures of the U.S.’ previous interventions will become less visible. Consequently, this will open the way for the United States to make further interventions in the upcoming Arab transitions. Syria might be the next case.

If the United States achieves its goals in Libya, the European countries like the United Kingdom, France and Italy will also take an appropriate share in the profits. However, they will undoubtedly lose their leadership roles, ceding them to the United States. This will apply specifically to the United Kingdom, which will have to fall from the top to the bottom. Given its role in Libya’s oil industry, the greatest loss in the recent political transitions will suffered by the United Kingdom. This damage will be clearly felt in the country’s economic as well as social fields.

Yet, China and Russia will be the main losers in this game, since they will no longer have any kind of control over their once growing role in Libya. Their presence in Libya’s economy will be subject to the U.S.’ consent.

U.S. imperialism has had many failures in Afghanistan and Iraq. And most definitely, by disposing of or weakening the U.S.’s former regional allies, the transitions in the Arab world have intimidated the United States. Now, it is hoping to revive its role as the leader and manager of the region’s transitions and developments. The United States also expects the nations of the Middle East to understand its powerful role and influence in the region.