The Blows of Syria, Libya and Obama

As the falsehoods continue to fly about the war in Libya, the family of the dictator Gadhafi seems divided. One of his sons calls for resistance, saying that they will retake Tripoli with 20,000 well-equipped men. Other events seem to show to the contrary. The wife and three children of Gadhafi have sought refuge in Algeria, the daughter of the leader has given birth on the border apparently without medical assistance, and another of his sons has declared he is willing to negotiate with rebels. This indicates that the end of the bizarre satrap is near. The formerly all-powerful dictator, he who historically proclaimed that Libya was the “only democracy of the world,” is now accused of rape by several of his bodyguards, who had also been recruited by force. The Libyan courts, which will not turn him in to the International Criminal Court, will not be very merciful if he is captured.

In the international sphere, the events in Libya overshadow Syria and are a substantial point for Sarkozy and a lesser one for Obama. The Syrian dictator Assad is losing ground despite his relentless repression which must have caused 2,200 deaths. Western patience has been exhausted, now Turkey and even Iran, who needs to arm Hezbollah in Libya and Hamas in Palestine, are irritated and have started to distance themselves. The Iranian supreme leader, who has the nerve to call the United States a “despotic and tyrannical regime” and warned that the triumph of the revolutionaries of North Africa could favor their Zionist enemies, has already asked Assad that he hear the petitions of his people. The ayatollahs, that rigged the last elections, should be afraid that the contagious revolution of the Arab Spring will affect the 2013 elections.

In France, Sarkozy faces accusations that the Libyan operation helped finance his campaign. The conference that convened today about the African country reinforced his leadership. The new Libyan team is very well known. Of those that went to the conference, China and Russia have still not recognized the opposition to Gadhafi despite the fact that they already control the capital (61 countries have recognized it). The sluggishness and reserve of Russia, with a distant and patronizing Mevdeved towards the rebels, is starting to be excessive and may take a toll on the new Libyan leadership as they settle in.

Obama’s stance has been vindicated. The president has been criticized by the Republican opposition for his approach to the issue of Libya. McCain asked the U.S. to send troops to promptly overthrow Gadhafi. Many others found it insulting that the United States ceded its leading role to France and the United Kingdom. The president, however, reasoned that excessive visibility of Washington would have a negative impact on Arab public opinion and the world. As he was already involved in two wars that he had not started, Iraq and Afghanistan, the idea of getting involved in a third wasn’t very attractive. Obama’s “lead from behind” approach has proven to be adequate, because without U.S. support, NATO would not have been able to overthrow Gadhafi.

The United States, while their missiles and drones have been decisive, has only spent about $1.3 billion on the conflict. This is a little more than what Afghanistan costs them in a week.

The Libyan issue, however, is not the subject of excessive attention in the U.S. and isn’t something Obama can exploit politically towards his reelection. The country, after the costly Hurricane Irene, will return to the issue that will decide the election: the economy and unemployment.