German Expert: New Priority for the Unites States in Central Asia — Long-Term Military Presence
Published in Regnum
(Russia) on 29 September 2011
by (link to original)
The idea of the inevitability of long-term presence of American forces in Central Asia is being nurtured in public opinion. A correspondent of REGNUM reports that a German expert on military issues, Jorg-Dietrich Nackmayr, expressed this sentiment on Sept. 29 in Dushanbe during the international conference "Security and Stability in Central Asia After the Withdrawal of ISAF from Afghanistan in 2014."
"The influence of the Asian continent is growing, and we often hear of a ‘new Asian century.’ Given these trends, the United States would commit an unforgivable mistake if the development of its policies in the Far East does not include the protection of America’s vital interests in both South and Central Asia. An analysis by the Center for a New American Security published in June 2011 concludes that dominance in Central Asia is the necessary condition for a successful policy for the whole Asian continent. According to the Center experts, the United States must develop a proactive strategy to protect its national interests; today, only reactions to new crises are taking place. The experts describe this issue to be of highest priority, while recognizing that the United States generally is going through a depressed period, whereas China is increasing its participation in the geopolitical process, " said Mr. Nackmayr.
"Ten years after the invasion of Afghanistan, the United States faces the same problem as it did in the beginning of the campaign, despite the fact that bin Laden is dead and al-Qaida has not made any serious attacks on U.S. soil. However, the Taliban still has not been destroyed and the so-called ‘Haqqani network’ is becoming a growing threat. According to Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, the ‘network’ enjoys the systematic support of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Agency. ... If the U.S. wants to remain the world's greatest power, it will have to maintain its presence in Afghanistan and Central Asia. If the U.S. withdraws from the region completely, it will be the beginning of its end. But despite various public statements, most experts agree that the United States will not leave entirely. They most likely will concentrate remaining forces in three areas; certain divisions will be situated, capable of ensuring minimal protection of select communities and conducting targeted operations against insurgents. As a matter of fact, the U.S. will be able to maintain a long-term military initiative. Moreover, if they significantly reduce the cost of war and ease logistics, they can withdraw military activities from public consciousness, pushing it to the background while still maintaining national interests. Indeed, the elimination of bin Laden, victory over al-Qaida and control of the Taliban were not the only goals of the whole campaign.”
“Afghanistan and military bases in Central Asia are the ideal, unsinkable 'aircraft carriers' for U.S. strategic interests. We should not forget about the region’s proximity to Iran; it could be the perfect springboard in the case of a military campaign against Iran. Analyzing the current discussion in the United States, it becomes easier to recognize the validity of the argument that this is the consensus. Whether the U.S. president agrees with this point of view is, apparently, a minor issue. In any case, the interpretation that the operation in Afghanistan is part of an overall foreign policy strategy is contrary to his plans at the time he assumed presidency. The question remains whether the U.S. presence will be reduced enough to maintain the necessary level of security in Afghanistan. We will soon learn the answer," said the German expert.
He recalled that, "Winston Churchill said that Americans can always be relied upon. But only after they have already made all possible mistakes. Apparently, Afghanistan will yet show in the 21st century that it isn’t called ‘the graveyard of great powers’ for nothing. The United States tried various strategies but could not fully achieve its objectives, especially since these tended to change from time to time. Perhaps accomplishing the objectives was not that important. Maybe the whole purpose of the plan is simply to remain in Afghanistan. Which powers, among all those involved in this game, will fall and which will stand is not known today. However we should be prepared for any surprises," Jorg-Dietrich Nackmayr concluded.
"The influence of the Asian continent is growing, and we often hear of a ‘new Asian century.’ Given these trends, the United States would commit an unforgivable mistake if the development of its policies in the Far East does not include the protection of America’s vital interests in both South and Central Asia. An analysis by the Center for a New American Security published in June 2011 concludes that dominance in Central Asia is the necessary condition for a successful policy for the whole Asian continent. According to the Center experts, the United States must develop a proactive strategy to protect its national interests; today, only reactions to new crises are taking place. The experts describe this issue to be of highest priority, while recognizing that the United States generally is going through a depressed period, whereas China is increasing its participation in the geopolitical process, " said Mr. Nackmayr.
"Ten years after the invasion of Afghanistan, the United States faces the same problem as it did in the beginning of the campaign, despite the fact that bin Laden is dead and al-Qaida has not made any serious attacks on U.S. soil. However, the Taliban still has not been destroyed and the so-called ‘Haqqani network’ is becoming a growing threat. According to Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, the ‘network’ enjoys the systematic support of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Agency. ... If the U.S. wants to remain the world's greatest power, it will have to maintain its presence in Afghanistan and Central Asia. If the U.S. withdraws from the region completely, it will be the beginning of its end. But despite various public statements, most experts agree that the United States will not leave entirely. They most likely will concentrate remaining forces in three areas; certain divisions will be situated, capable of ensuring minimal protection of select communities and conducting targeted operations against insurgents. As a matter of fact, the U.S. will be able to maintain a long-term military initiative. Moreover, if they significantly reduce the cost of war and ease logistics, they can withdraw military activities from public consciousness, pushing it to the background while still maintaining national interests. Indeed, the elimination of bin Laden, victory over al-Qaida and control of the Taliban were not the only goals of the whole campaign.”
“Afghanistan and military bases in Central Asia are the ideal, unsinkable 'aircraft carriers' for U.S. strategic interests. We should not forget about the region’s proximity to Iran; it could be the perfect springboard in the case of a military campaign against Iran. Analyzing the current discussion in the United States, it becomes easier to recognize the validity of the argument that this is the consensus. Whether the U.S. president agrees with this point of view is, apparently, a minor issue. In any case, the interpretation that the operation in Afghanistan is part of an overall foreign policy strategy is contrary to his plans at the time he assumed presidency. The question remains whether the U.S. presence will be reduced enough to maintain the necessary level of security in Afghanistan. We will soon learn the answer," said the German expert.
He recalled that, "Winston Churchill said that Americans can always be relied upon. But only after they have already made all possible mistakes. Apparently, Afghanistan will yet show in the 21st century that it isn’t called ‘the graveyard of great powers’ for nothing. The United States tried various strategies but could not fully achieve its objectives, especially since these tended to change from time to time. Perhaps accomplishing the objectives was not that important. Maybe the whole purpose of the plan is simply to remain in Afghanistan. Which powers, among all those involved in this game, will fall and which will stand is not known today. However we should be prepared for any surprises," Jorg-Dietrich Nackmayr concluded.