After Gadhafi's Death, When Will Libya's Transitional Government Be Born?

Gadhafi is dead. Jibril, chairman of the executive committee of Libya’s National Transition Council, confirmed the death in a press conference on Oct. 20. Gadhafi was shot to death in Sirte.

At the same time, Sirte and Bani Waled, the last two forts supporting Gadhafi, are almost controlled completely. Libya’s civil war comes to an end.

Gadhafi’s death brought the end of a political power and the official beginning of a new era. However, Libya’s construction of a new order is still facing huge challenges.

It has been almost two months since Aug. 22, when the National Transition Council took control of Tripoli; Libya’s new government has won recognition from the UN, African Union, Arab league and a majority of countries in the world, but still hasn’t been established yet. This is not only unfavorable to Libya’s stability, but will cause anxiety in the international society.

According to the “post-Gadhafi transitional plan” and “constitutional document” released by the National Transition Council, the transitional government leaders will hold legislative elections in the next eight to 12 months, establishing a “democratic, lawful and representative” national government.

The disarray of the transitional government means that Libya’s democracy cannot be realized. Can we say that after Gadhafi’s death, Libya can smoothly build up a nationwide official government?

In fact, the disarray is more because of the imbalance of power allocation in the council; Gadhafi’s existence was a superficial reason before. Now that Gadhafi is gone, the government should be established from sentiment and reason.

We can’t deny that NATO and the Gulf Cooperation Council’s intervention is the determining factor that led to overthrowing Gadhafi’s empire. Since Gadhafi had bad karma, the intervention didn’t get much opposition in the Arab world or in the anti-war force in Europe and America. However, we need to see that currently European and American countries are in financial crisis. If they invest too much in Libya in the long run, it not only won’t measure up with strategic interest but also will cause domestic trouble as a result of increasing costs.

Now that Gadhafi has died, NATO gained a strong achievement to explain its past. We expect that NATO countries may decrease investment in Libya after this, and even will end the execution of the no-fly zone and military interference. As for the EU countries, they may use this excuse to get out of Libya.

As for countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, though they don’t have financial trouble, Libya is still too far away from them; they have troubles like Yemen and Syria. Since Gadhafi is dead, they’ll focus more on Arabia and Asia Minor. The Libya Bailout Fund, located in Qatar, has released a sign of leaving — indicating that they won’t assume the obligation of aiding Libyan refugees.

The question is whether Gadhafi’s death will free Libya’s National Transition Council from worrying, and whether they will develop a power struggle. Will those tribal forces, each eagerly wanting to show its power after changing leaders in Tripoli, threaten the new power using excuses and finally lead to a much looser and scattered future for Libya?

We have to admit that Libya’s foundation is not stable as a united modern country. Gadhafi’s dictatorship didn’t build up a integrated, ordered political system, but a utopian anarchy. Tribalism and dispersive consciousness existed. Gadhafi couldn’t solve them when alive; his death can’t fundamentally solve them, either.

The first test in the “post-Gadhafi era” is how to officially establish a transitional government. The international society should assist Libya with this crucial step.