To Become a Master, You Have to “Play” with a Master

Published in People
(China) on 2 December 2011
by Tang Shuangning (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Tim Lim. Edited by Rica Asuncion-Reed.
The world is filled with great concerns, such as the financial, debt and economic crisis, as well as political chaos and social disorder in many countries. Among these, the financial crisis is undoubtedly the most concerning and could become the cause of a wide range of issues that could trigger social unrest.

If you study these issues, you would find that most of them are related to the United States, which is facing its own difficulties: a difficult economic recovery, high unemployment, a worsening national debt crisis and a culture of living above their means. Additionally, how can it end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, contain the threats from China and Russia and deal with North Korea, Iran, Cuba and Venezuela, which have dared to challenge the country? These troubles are plaguing the U.S.

The United States is the most powerful country in the world. In fact, it is the country in the modern history of the world that has been the most successful in the world arena, and it may be the last major player. France, Britain, Germany, Russia and other countries have played this role previously; but what prospers for a long time will decay, and what is in decay for a long time will flourish.

The current financial crisis could be a turning point for the world. I personally believe that within the next 30 to 50 years, a few emerging countries will match the prowess of the U.S. Today’s Britain will be the U.S. of tomorrow. Within 50 years to 100 years, many emerging countries will be on equal footing as the U.S., with a few of them exceeding it, much like the Italy of today compared to when it was leading the world. Within 100 years, a number of countries in the world will overtake the U.S. The Greece of today will be the U.S. in 100 years. All in all, we can see the Europe of today as the U.S. of the future.

Of course, due to advantages in technology, the military and the U.S. dollar, the U.S. will not fade quickly. It all depends on how various conflicts are managed as well as how technology develops, which may accelerate or slow the change. Nevertheless, there will be constant “change,” and everything will be variable. For some, this will be an “opportunity.”

However, it takes hard work to transform “opportunity” into the desired reality. U.S. relations with China will be the key. The U.S.-China relationship is governed by the “unity of opposites”: They have been rivals and partners; the largest developed country and the largest developing country; “you have me, and I have you.” Neither can do without the other. Although the U.S. needs China, it also wants to contain it. So when Sino-U.S. relations are good, they are not much better, and when they are bad, they are not much worse. “Fighting each other or fighting together — just as it is difficult to be together for a long time, it is difficult to fight for a long time.”

Historically, the United States’ policy toward China has been as a dove among hawks. The Boxer Rebellion is an example of when the United States was regarded as one of the "doves" in the Eight-Nation Alliance — since geographically, the U.S. had no claims on Chinese territory, unlike the Russians and Japanese. The Boxer Indemnity established Western-style education in China. The United States also was one of the largest aid providers to China during the world war. If not for the conflicts in the Korean Peninsula, bilateral relations would not have been frozen for over 20 years, and the Taiwan issue may have already been resolved.

We need to get used to U.S.-China relations going between extremes. When relations border on becoming good, it starts going in the direction of being bad. Whenever the U.S. pays China a visit, one of three things will soon happen: a meeting with the Dalai Lama, arms sales to Taiwan, or forcing the issue of the appreciation of the renminbi. Another example is when the Chinese embassy was attacked in Yugoslavia, Clinton responded by attending a Chinese women's soccer game. These are necessary maneuvers for political balance.

Within the U.S., there are two attitudes toward China: The U.S. government and businesses as a whole are pro-China for the sake of doing business with China. Congress and the media in general are anti-China. The U.S. government’s view of the world trend is relatively clear. Near the end of the civil war between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party, the Soviet Embassy moved to Guangzhou, and the U.S. government was already planning to abandon Gen. Chiang. But the American people’s view of the world is often naïve. Many Americans have never left their small town, and their understanding of world affairs is highly affected by the media.

To protect their core interests, the U.S. pit Taiwan against China. Taiwan became a U.S. pawn, which was a tragedy for the Chinese nation. The U.S. profited at the expense of Taiwan. The United States’ claim of "not supporting" Taiwan’s independence is somewhat ambiguous, which serves to suppress it. And its "Taiwan Relations Act" uses Taiwan as a platform to bolster its own interests.

To become a master you have to “play” with a master. The United States is the world's largest developed country. We have to “play” with the U.S. to improve our science and technology sector and our financial market. Of course, in order to learn, we need to pay tuition; there is no way around it.

China cannot compete with the U.S. without first improving our science and technology as well as financial sectors. The U.S.-China relationship is relevant not only to China but the whole world. The world has been ambivalent about China, but mainly it has been pro-U.S. China should learn to unite with other countries to counter the United States. A mature and rational politician knows how to take the initiative to control the relationship; an immature politician will eventually learn how to be a mature one by experience. After 9/11, former U.S. President George Bush began to join forces with China to counter terrorism. There is no right or wrong in a nation’s policy as long as they are in line with national conditions. The French Revolution produced a republic; the British constitutional monarchy emerged after a glorious revolution. People can always learn to accept and adapt. The U.S. system must not be copied bluntly but must be adapted. China should adopt a policy toward the United States of “fighting in harmony, harmony in fighting; fighting but never splitting; using the struggle to promote harmony and striving to achieve mostly harmony” — and through this process capture it.

The author, Tang Shuangning, is the chairman of Everbright Group.


与高手美国“玩”才能成高手

2011年12月02日14:04 来源:人民网-《环球时报》 手机看新闻

  当前世界有许多值得关注的大问题,如金融危机、债务危机和经济危机,政治乱局以及多国社会骚乱。其中,金融危机无疑最引人关注,同时又是引发社会动乱等一系列问题的导火索。

  人们观察这些问题,可以发现一个规律,就是大多与美国有关。而美国当前也面临自己的棘手问题,比如经济复苏艰难,失业问题严峻,债务危机加剧,寅吃卯粮的过度消费文化等。此外,伊拉克、阿富汗战争如何收场?如何遏制中俄?如何对付朝鲜、伊朗、古巴、委内瑞拉等敢于和美国叫板的国家?这些问题都在困扰美国。

  美国是当今最强大的国家。其实,它只是世界近现代史舞台上最成功,也可能是最后的主角。此前,法、英、德、俄等国家先后在这个舞台上扮演过强国角色,然而“兴久必衰,衰久必兴”。

  对世界来说,当前的金融危机应当说是一个转折点。预料一下未来100年的世界形势,我个人判断,30年到50 年左右,世界将出现一些与美国平起平坐的国家.英国的今天就是美国的明天: 50年到100年,世界将出现一批与美国平起平坐国家,以及一些超越美国的国家,意大利的今天就是美国的后天(意大利文化也曾引领世界潮流):100年后,世界将出现一批超越美国的国家,希腊的今天就是美国的大后天。总而言之,欧洲的今天就是美国的未来。

  当然,由于科技、军力、美元的 “黑三角”支撑,美国的退潮是缓慢的,不会一退到底。由于矛盾转化、科技发展等原因,这个变化可能加速,也可能减速。除了“变”是不变的以外,一切都是可变的。这就是机遇。

  然而,机遇只是一种“可能”,要变成现实需要主观努力。在机遇面前,处理好中美关系十分关键。中美关系是“对立统一规律”在国家间关系问题上的典型反映,常态是“既合又斗”。最大的发达国家和最大的发展中国家“你中有我,我中有你”,谁也离不开谁。但美国离不开中国,又想遏制中国,因此中美关系好也好不到哪儿,坏也坏不到哪儿, “斗中有合,合中有斗,既难久合,亦难久斗”。

  从历史看,美国对中国是“鹰派中的鸽派”。美国曾是八国联军之一,又是联军中的“鸽派”,地理关系决定美国对中国没有或难有领土要求,这点与俄罗斯、日本不同。庚子赔款奠定了中国西式教育基础,抗战中美国又是对华援助最多的国家之一。如果不是朝鲜半岛出事,两国关系也不会冰冻20多年,台湾问题或许早已解决。

  我们要习惯中美关系的“物极必反”。中美关系如果接近“好”的边界,就要向“坏”的方向转化,:双方元首一热访,就要出现老三样:会见达赖、对台军售、逼人民币升值。而我驻南斯拉夫大使馆一被炸,克林顿也要假模假样观看中国女足比赛。这些都是政客平衡内外矛盾的需要。

  美国国内对中国存在两种力量,美国政府、企业总体是接近中国的力量,因为他们要和中国做买卖:而议会、媒体总体是反对中国的力量。美国政府对世界走势判断相对较为清醒,当年国共内战接近尾声,苏联使馆迁往广州,美国政府却已有弃蒋打算。但美国人民对世界情势常不明就里,很多美国人从来没离开过自己的小镇,不知天下大事,主要受媒体影响。

  为了自己的核心利益,美国将中国大陆与台湾玩于股掌之间。台湾成为美国的棋子,是中华民族的悲剧,而美国从中渔利,成为最大赢家。美国表态“不支持”台湾独立,模棱两可中偏于压制台湾;而它的《与台湾关系法》又是为其自身利益挺台。跟高手玩才能成为高手,美国是世界上最大的发达国家,我们只有跟美国 ‘玩”,才能提高我们的科技水平和金融水平。当然,跟美国“玩”不可能不付学费,但跟别人“玩”又“玩”不出名堂。不把科技、金融学好,中国终究玩不过美国。中美关系不仅是中关的事,也是世界的事。目前世界各国对中关关系首鼠两端.但总体以亲美为主。中国应该学会联合他国一同反制美国。成熟的政治家懂得主动理性驾驭中关关系,不成熟的政治家也会在现实中被动转为理性,美国前总统小布什就是在“9·11”事件后,才开始联合中国反恐的。各国体制历史形成,无所谓对错,合乎国情即可。法国大革命出现共和体制,英国光荣革命出现君主立宪制,只要适应了就可以,人民接受了就可以。美国体制绝不可照搬,但有渐进借鉴之处。中国对美国应采取“合中备斗,斗中备合,斗而不破,以斗促合,力争多合”方针,在这个过程中积极捕捉机遇。(作者是光大集团董事长 唐双宁)
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