A New Geopolitical Landscape in 2012

The new year which is beginning carries important electoral consequences in our hemisphere: elections in Venezuela, the United States and Mexico. All of them are important pieces in the geopolitical landscape.

We begin with Venezuela, where an ill Chavez is locked in a daily struggle, not only against cancer, but also in proving himself in a new electoral campaign. He struggles, especially at those times when the fruits of his once immeasurable popularity do not come so easily – the blows against liberty and democracy, and the levels of crime and economic growth have sunk the minds of the Venezuelan citizenry, and for the first time there is a consensus on the idea of an opposing candidate.

The opposition has finally learned to channel its efforts and has come to address the persistent flaw it has had during 13 years under Chavez; it must oppose the man but not the system and win through elections, not protests. The panorama could change, which would lead to a great opportunity to revitalize the weakened Venezuelan democracy.

The United States is an interesting case. The hope which Obama represented in 2008 when he arrived has been weakened by a number of factors, the most important being the economic crisis and the unemployment which afflicts the great northern nation. In spite of this, Obama does not have it so hard in a country where the sitting President is practically guaranteed re-election, like Clinton or Bush. The Republican Party has not figured out how to act wisely with respect to the election that is coming on Nov. 6, which kicked off with the first primary yesterday in Iowa. The candidates of that party wrap themselves in the mantle of the extreme right, which is very hard for an ordinary citizen to swallow. Obama may win the re-election as a result of that reaction, and not because he is widely acclaimed as a great leader.

On July 1, there are elections in Mexico, a country that is at its wits end with drug traffickers, who have successfully infiltrated the society. The citizens are somewhat demoralized. The outgoing Felipe Calderon literally used up all of his bullets fighting this scourge. His frontal attack on the drug dealers has faced criticism from various quarters. It is very probable that the political spectrum will be defined by this single issue. The PRI, the party that has governed Mexico for decades, is in the mix, and could pull off a surprise victory.

We all must keep a watchful eye on these elections. Relations between Colombia and these countries are fundamental. With our country’s change of leadership there came a whole wave of new and improved relationships, and now we must monitor them carefully for changes.

Fundamental matters like the free trade agreement with the United States, or the re-establishment of relations with Venezuela – which were difficult to achieve and largely undermined by enemies of Chavez in this country – must be paid attention.

That is why, from here, the new geopolitical landscape should be watched carefully. We desire the best for the people of these countries. Let’s hope that democracy will successfully guide the destinies of these three nations.