“China is Leading” is Merely an American Intuition

Americans today are accustomed to products that are printed with “Made in China” in their day-to-day life, and they are bombarded with news of China’s rapid economic growth. On the contrary, their own country and its allies are faced with weak economic growth and ever-soaring unemployment. Hence, many respondents are very optimistic about China without any hesitation. This, however, is but a mere personal feeling, with which Chinese people do not agree.

A survey released on the 10th by the U.S. Gallup poll reveals that 53 percent of Americans believe that China is the world’s leading economic power, whereas the proportion who chose the United States and Japan was 33 percent and 7 percent, respectively. There is a certain measure of objectivity to this survey, which was targeted at over 1,000 adults who are 18 and above in all 50 states in the U.S. This, however, is unrealistic.

Americans today are accustomed to products that are printed with “Made in China” in their day-to-day life and they are bombarded with news of China’s rapid economic growth. On the contrary, their own country and its allies are faced with weak economic growth and ever-soaring unemployment. Hence, many respondents are very optimistic about China without any hesitation.

This, however, is but a mere personal feeling, with which Chinese people do not agree. Looking at it from different perspectives, there is still a considerable distance between China and the status of being the world’s leading economic power. To this day, migrating to a developed Western country is still a much more attractive option for a better life (for Chinese people). Therefore, even if China were the world’s second largest economy comparable to Japan, China is still very much lacking in many aspects, let alone being the world’s largest economy.

It is of importance, too, to note that there is always an invisible guiding force at work behind the U.S. public opinion. The U.S. public opinion during the economic crisis is particularly worthy of our attention. Among the various news reports in the U.S., there is one which is the most effective, that is, the so-called misery reports. Although the U.S. has been a powerful entity in the past half a century, there are always articles and analyses which point out the weaknesses of the U.S. and the strengths of its opponents as well as the significant developments to which potential competitors are going to attain. In the past, when Japan’s economy was rapidly developing, American news media and think tanks continued to study the issue of the impact of Japanese enterprises on American enterprises. Soon thereafter, reports and analyses claiming that “Japan has bought the U.S.” filled the U.S. media. When the media have gained momentum and sufficient support in politics or economy from the public, the government and the Congress just ride it out with their policies. This has even confused their competitors and driven the public opinions of other countries; it ultimately led to the signing of the Plaza Accord. Therefore, it can be said that the U.S. media and their think tank public opinions, particularly when the U.S. faces competitive threats, usually carry deeper meanings; it is often a harbinger of America’s exerting pressures on others.

The Gallup poll result could well indicate the possibility of China’s facing increasing international pressure. Regardless of whether or not there will be increasing pressure, however, becoming the world’s leading economic power remains our goal. So, when can China truly become one? I believe that there are at least three requirements which we have to meet. First, the value of renminbi should be comparable to the U.S. dollar, and there should be steady growth of China’s economy. Second, China should be able to sign with America and other European countries an agreement similar to the Free Trade Agreement between China and ASEAN, and people should be able to move freely between the countries. Third, China’s own brand should become the mainstream in the international market, rather than China assembling iPads for Apple.

In order to realize these three requirements, we first have to face the increasing risk of “going beyond.” Although there will be increasing pressure from the West, there is already an imminent decline in the efforts of the Western societies to monopolize the whole world. This indicates that it is time for China to expand its economy. In addition, regardless of how much pressure, China should be insistent in working toward development according to its own unique approach. Over the years, China has acquired a non-Western-style way of developing the market and economy. At the moment, this method is still full of challenges and risks; China is still in the process of refining it. But after the breakout of the financial crisis, far-sighted individuals all over the world have begun to reflect on this method of development. Therefore, we should keep figuring things out as we proceed and always weigh the risks and not be stumbled or restrained by any comments.

The author is an associate researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.