Xi and Obama Size Each Other Up

Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping recently traveled to the United States on an official visit. Xi is set to succeed the current General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party later this year and will accede to the presidency next year, becoming the highest-ranking official of the Asian superpower for a term that could go on until 2022. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama is hoping to win a second term in November’s presidential election. Given the incipient economic recovery and the absence of a clear Republican rival, he could well continue on in the White House for another four years until 2017.

Therein lies the purpose of Xi’s trip: for both men to measure their likely opponent on the international scene. In statements made after the initial meetings, they both took strategic positions which might risk inconveniencing themselves, albeit slightly. The nature of the visit dictated that caution and cordiality was the order of the day.

Both leaders have a difficult job ahead of them, despite having a common objective: to improve bilateral relations and therefore contribute to global stability. Their task is immense if we consider not only their mutual distrust, but also the number and variety of disagreements they have to overcome. The United States, in its capacity as the military superpower, and China, in its capacity as the economic superpower, have divergent views that feed mutually incompatible hegemonic goals.

In terms of geographic strategy, the knives are out. Nobody wants to even hear whispers of a Sino-American cold war, but for a while, Washington has been reinforcing its relations with allies in the Pacific like Japan, Taiwan, Australia, the Philippines and Singapore. Obama himself recently reiterated that his country considered the Pacific an area of special influence, a remark that predictably aroused suspicions in Peking.

The situation is no less volatile in the economic sphere. Undoubtedly China’s position as America’s main creditor is stunting the progress of both economies. It is also true that there is a lack of symmetry in their economic relations: the bilateral trade balance currently favors China by four to one. The United States, with increasing insistence, is calling on China to speed up reform on the Yuan’s devaluation, give up industrial piracy and, in general, play fair economically. Against this background, it’s hardly surprising that Obama’s budget proposals include more investment in infrastructure, education and industry, as well as tax increases on the rich, in an attempt to grease the wheels of the U.S. economy and reduce its dependence on imports.

Finally, there are plenty of disagreements on international policy. In a classic case of talking past each other, China has just vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on Syria, while Washington called for Peking to exercise greater respect for human rights.

With so many international differences, it may seem paradoxical that both Xi and Obama are approaching this visit through the lens of their own internal politics. By the end of this visit, both Xi and Obama must each be able to demonstrate back home that they can reap new dividends from this relationship. And so, in spite of differences that may sooner or later lead to greater tensions, for the moment it is likely that mutual respect, dialogue and cooperation will prevail.