Obama Risks Re-election over Middle East Turmoil

The Koran crisis with deadly protests in Afghanistan, the massacres in Syria and especially the nuclear Iran: The Middle East can still destabilize the entire world, drag America into a conflict, halt its economic recovery and impede President Barack Obama’s re-election. Fareed Zakaria, the great geostrategic expert and columnist for CNN and Time, discusses the situation in this exclusive interview with Repubblica.

To burn the Koran today! Is it likely that it was actually just an accident? Given the timing, eight months from the American elections, the temptation to think it was something else is almost irresistible.

It appears to have been an accident. When you have to choose between the possibility of incompetence and accident on one hand, and that of conspiracy on the other, nine times out of ten the first one is true. People make mistakes. There’s no doubt that an American military presence in such a culturally different country could lead to misunderstandings and miscommunication. This has probably contributed to the controversy.

The violent protests in Afghanistan seem to be in line with the American political right: Republican candidates have been criticizing Obama for apologizing on behalf of the United States for a long time, claiming that his apology has only served to further incriminate the United States and fuel anti-American sentiment amongst adversaries.

These accusations are absurd. Obama is not apologizing for America. He admitted that in some cases the United States did not always stand on the right side in international conflicts, and he dissociated himself from some of George Bush’s politics. That doesn’t mean, though, that he’s constantly apologizing. This is electoral campaign rhetoric and it won’t work. The American public opinion is satisfied with Obama’s approach to foreign policy. He has fought hard against al-Qaida and other terrorists, killed Osama bin Laden, pulled America out of Iraq and promises to reduce the military presence in Afghanistan. He’s tough with Iran—without threatening to declare war. This is all popular. For the first time since Vietnam, the Republicans don’t have an advantage in foreign policy during an electoral campaign.

Will the current crisis have consequences for the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan?

Careful, this is not a withdrawal, but a reduction. If it’s accomplished in the right way, it should strengthen America’s position. Instead of occupying vast territories, instead of trying to stabilize and govern a nation that is one of the ten poorest and most conflicted in the world, the United States will rise from the task of military occupation and reduce any ambition of ‘State building’ to instead focus on eliminating terrorism. This will alleviate anti-Americanism and do away with accusations of U.S. imperialism and enable the United States to be more flexible and lethal: That’s what counts in the war against terrorists.

The Koran’s crisis in Afghanistan exploded right when Hillary Clinton was supposed to go to Pakistan to restore relations. What will happen to the difficult and crucial relationship between the United States and Pakistan?

The relationship has stabilized somewhat, but remains deeply troubled. The truth is that the vast majority of terrorists who threaten the West’s interests today live in Pakistan, with the tacit or explicit support of the Pakistani military. And yet, these soldiers receive 30 percent of their funds from U.S. aid. What can be done? Sometimes there are problems that have no solution, and certainly in this case, there is no easy solution. The current U.S. policy is to keep pressure on the Pakistani regime while continuing to provide aid. That’s understandable, but at a certain point Washington will have to wonder what it’s getting back in return for those billions of dollars.

Will the Middle East become a handicap for Obama’s re-election in November?

The Middle East is in turmoil, and in addition to Syria, Iran and Afghanistan we have instability and tribal conflict in Egypt and Libya. Each of these countries could enter into an uncontrollable crisis. Syria is falling, but it’ll be a slow process due to the brutality of its regime. The most immediate problem is Iran.

Is a war in Iran likely to happen? An Israeli attack? With or without the United States?

There is a chance, small but significant, that Israel attacks Iran before November. The real “window of opportunity’ that Israel has in mind is not about the evolution of the Iranian technology, but the American electoral cycle. If Israel attacks before November, it’ll be hard for Obama not to support it without being exposed to Republican accusations. I don’t think Israel will decide solely on this basis. Many in Israel—among the military and intelligence agencies—believe the benefits of an attack would not compensate for the heavy costs. But the possibility is real. And an attack would completely change the political dynamic in the Middle East.

There would also be economic consequences. Could an oil crisis halt America’s current recovery?

The greatest threat to the recovery today is an oil crisis. Mario Draghi effectively put an end to the fears of a Euro zone collapse akin to that of Lehman. But the price of the oil keeps going up in spite of weak demand. Why? Everything revolves around fear about Iran. Paradoxically, the success of Obama’s sanctions towards Iran might harm the economy. His foreign policy is somehow weakening his economic policy, and his chance of re-election.