To Be Or Not To Be

The president of the most powerful country in the world is nervous. He’s scared that Israel will begin the “bomb party” in Iran without his permission. Many analysts have speculated about the possibility of an Israeli attack against the Persian nation. What is certain is that in an election year for the United States, anything can happen.

Theories about looming aggression multiplied after an Israeli intelligence specialist, Ronen Bergman, confirmed in the New York Times that such action would take place this year.

For his part, the Israeli Minister of Defense, Ehud Barak, also spoke of an operation against Iran, though he did not specify the date. “He who says ‘later,’ may find that it is ‘too late,'” he stated.

Later, an editorial from The Washington Post said that U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta estimated that there was a “high likelihood” that Israel would conduct a military intervention in the spring against Iranian nuclear plants.

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, informed the Israeli leaders on Jan. 20 that the United States would not participate in a war against Iran conducted by Israel without the previous agreement of Washington. A firm decision indeed, but can they keep this promise?

Obama is at a crossroads. The Democratic president boasts of having put an end to troop occupation in Iraq, and he does not want to be mired in yet another conflict in the Middle East (at least for now). But he knows that there are factors that he cannot control.

As the political analyst M.J. Rosenberg confirms, the most powerful Zionist lobbying firm in the United States, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, is placing increased pressure on the government of Barack Obama to conduct a military attack against Iran.

For Stephen Walt, professor of International Relations at Harvard University, it is clear that the “the most important groups in Israel are found among the strongest voices demanding the United States to increase sanctions against Iran, and to use force if necessary.”

The influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in the daily political dealings of the White House is so powerful that South Carolina Democratic senator, Ernest Hollings, upon leaving office, said, “You can’t have an Israel policy other than what AIPAC gives you around here.” In the same vein, on one occasion, the former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon publicly stated in the United States: “When people ask me how they can help Israel, I tell them: help AIPAC.”

According to an analysis by The Washington Post, the Democrats “depend on Jewish support for up to 60 percent of donations received.” Furthermore, Jewish voters are concentrated in crucial states such as California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Pennsylvania.

“The only reason that this issue is at the forefront right now is the United States elections.”

Cliff Kupchan of the Eurasia Group, which analyzes international risks, believes that if Israel begins a war, the United States will inevitably be pulled in, and Obama could not oppose it even if he wanted to.

“He can say we did not participate, we did not have knowledge beforehand, we did not approve, but I think he would have to at least go along with it, possibly provide rhetorical support.”

Meanwhile, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia Nikolai Makarov was quoted on Russia Today as stating that an attack on Iran could happen next spring.

To be or not to be. To attack Iran or to let Israel do it. These seem to be the options for Obama. Another alternative was predicted by analyst Fernando Casares, who does not discount a “situation similar to Syria” in which “the United States, Israel and its allies finance and arm internal opposition groups in Iran.”

All that is left is to wait and stay alert to new events.