Summit of the Americas: Four Possible Outcomes with Just One Loser

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos comes to Cuba today with two well-defined objectives, and that which will occur in Havana in the next few hours is the subject of many front-page stories.

Santos will meet Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, who is recuperating in Cuba from a recent surgery, to sign addenda to a trade agreement reached last November. However, the true reason for his trip will be to speak with Chávez and the Cuban Head of State, Raúl Castro, regarding Cuba’s possible participation in the Summit of the Americas, which will take place in April, in Cartagena, Colombia.

Chancellors of the Bolivarian Alliance of the Americas (ALBA), whose members include Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, agreed “to endorse the full participation of brother Cuba” in the Summit of the Americas during a meeting in Havana on February 7. During an ALBA Summit in Caracas, Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa proposed boycotting the Summit of the Americas if Cuba was not invited. This proposal, supported by the other heads of state, provoked the Colombian chancellery to carry out a series of inquiries, which the Political Council of ALBA resolved to “observe with attention.”

In Washington, many have expressed an absolute opposition to Cuba’s presence at the summit in Cartagena, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Still, it’s up to Colombia to decide whether or not to invite Cuba. Pressure from the North has placed Colombia in a very difficult position. On the one hand the country would like to preserve its close relations with the United States. On the other, it would like to maintain the positive evolution of its ties with countries like Venezuela and Ecuador, ties that deteriorated profoundly during the presidency of Álvaro Uribe.

It would be very difficult for Colombia to defy the United States, with whom it is aligned militarily and economically. Still, the Colombian government knows that inviting Cuba would present great opportunities. This invitation would also allow Colombia to avoid being seen as a U.S. pawn. Before national public opinion, this invitation would strengthen Colombia’s sovereign and independent image. Internationally, the country would enjoy enormous prestige. Santos would remain in history as the president who endeavored to sit at the same table as David and Goliath. As for the possible reprisals from Washington, the U.S. would have to be very dim to damage relations with one of the few alliances that it still has in the region.

In light of this situation, the United States can only lose. If Cuba attends the summit, the U.S. would have to accept the uncomfortable presence of the dissident voice that the country has spent more than 50 years trying to silence. Those in the Americas willing to listen to this voice continue to grow, and Cuba’s presence would take center stage at the summit. If Cuba does not attend the summit but ALBA countries do, the latter would convert the summit into a rebellion against U.S. policy toward Cuba. ALBA countries would be supported in this regard by many other nations that maintain good relations with the U.S. but condemn its blockade of Cuba. If ALBA countries do not attend, the forum that the U.S. has endeavored to convert into the primary space for carrying out dialogue with the region would be weakened. Moreover, questioning of U.S. policy toward Cuba would take center stage at the summit. If Cuba attends and Barack Obama decides not to, it would be the demise of the Summit of the Americas. Each of these four situations would emphasize to Washington and the rest of the world the Latin American rejection of the U.S. obsession against Cuba.

Thanks to electoral ties and the total absence of audacity in the politics of Barack Obama, the Colombian president ended up feeling freer than his colleagues in Washington. At least Santos can travel to Havana and converse. As of now, Obama is only a spectator. In a Huffington Post article on the 50th anniversary of the blockade that was supposed to isolate Cuba, columnist Peter Orsi reflected that “If anyone is isolated,… it’s us.” *

The summit in Cartagena does not begin for another month and a week, yet U.S. isolation is already evident.

* Editor’s note: While the original author attributes this quote to Peter Orsi, the columnist himself quoted a source, Wayne Smith, “who was a young U.S. diplomat in Havana in 1961.”