If the Atomic Bomb Ends Up in the Hands of Terrorists

What if, one day, terrorists managed to get hold of some kind of nuclear material and turn threats into actions, using the atomic bomb to hold the world hostage? This is a much more realistic hypothesis than it seems. Representatives of the 53 nations who took part in the Seoul Nuclear Security Summit two days ago (this was the third summit of its kind, the first having been held in Prague in 2009, and the second in Washington, D.C. in 2010) were well aware of this fact while signing a final document that indicates the common commitment to the disarmament, non-proliferation and pacific use of nuclear energy, as well as a strong reaffirmation of the security risks related to nuclear terrorism.

During the summit, President Obama, aiming to safeguard the world’s nuclear material by 2014, declared, “I firmly believe that we can ensure the security of the United States and our allies, maintain a strong deterrent against any threat, and still pursue further reductions in our nuclear arsenal.” Further demonstrating the point, Obama added “… we’ll continue to seek discussions with Russia on a step we have never taken before — reducing not only our strategic nuclear warheads, but also tactical weapons and warheads in reserve.”

The Seoul summit revolved around a double debate. The first one concerned “nuclear safety”: namely, the measures necessary to anticipate nuclear incidents provoked by a breakdown or a natural catastrophe, as was the case in the Japanese nuclear plant of Fukushima one year ago. According to experts, nuclear materials become safer if they are guarded within military installations. But in all cases, it is crucial to raise security standards in order to anticipate incidents that could happen as a result of natural events.

The other element, which was equally important, was that of “nuclear security,” which corresponds to the protection of nuclear plants and materials from malicious and hostile actions. “The threat remains,” warned Obama, “and we know that terrorists and criminal gangs are still trying to get their hands on it — as well as radioactive material for a dirty bomb. We know that just the smallest amount of plutonium — about the size of an apple — could kill hundreds of thousands and spark a global crisis.”

To build an atomic bomb is not an easy task, but to make a device vaguely similar to the one used by Americans in Hiroshima is feasible for well-equipped terrorist groups. According to a classification drawn by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the countries especially at risk are Pakistan and India because Islamic fundamentalists have easy access to nuclear material in the former case, while corruption is an issue in the latter. As far as Russia is concerned, in the past 15 years Moscow has increased its own security, but it still guards the majority of the accumulating nuclear material from the Soviet Union. These remnants encourage the proliferation of a real black market, such as the Moldavian criminal organization which sold enriched uranium to North African buyers. It also came to light that two terrorist groups, al-Qaida and the Japanese organization Aum Shinrikyo, are both very determined to get hold of nuclear weapons.

Last, but not least, are the challenges posed by North Korea and Iran, for which the mediation from China and Russia constitutes the only hope.

Despite every call, Pyongyang has repeated its intention to perform the launch of a long-range missile in mid-April. The test is camouflaged by the launch of a satellite, which, according to North Korea, will be used to study weather events and agricultural issues. Yet, the first ones not to believe this [explanation] are South Korea and Japan, who are both concerned by the fact that, if launched, the missile would cross both of their territories. By doing so, Pyongyang openly violates United Nations Security Council Resolution 1874 and does not seem open to reason. As a result of the coming launch, the United States has frozen the food aid promised to North Koreans in exchange for the suspension of nuclear activities. Another accused, sitting on the bench, is Iran, whose reassurances on the pacific nature of its nuclear program fail to convince Washington, or even Israel, who has threatened to launch a strike on Iranian facilities suspected of working on the atomic bomb.