Obama and Romney: The Fight for the Center

Having easily won the primaries in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware, Mitt Romney will almost certainly run against Barack Obama in just over six months. The Republicans are obliged to choose the moderate candidate over one more conservative, who would have been their choice if they were able to follow their hearts. Paradoxically, in an America more fragmented and polarized than ever before, these are two fundamentally moderate candidates who will fight over centrist and decisive votes to draw those voters identified as “independent,” who don’t belong to either the Democratic or the Republican party, come November 6. In a time characterized by the Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street movements, the American election will play out more or less in the center of the spectrum, which explains the emergence of the two candidates’ competing strategies. For Barack Obama, the order of the day is to paint his Republican opponent as a radical right-winger. ‘Don’t trust his moderate appearance, he’s an ultra-conservative in disguise,’ the Democratic president will say.

For Romney, the opposite is true. It is not a question of presenting Obama as an ultra-liberal in the American sense of the term, nor as a dangerous leftist. The centrist voters, who will make the decision, won’t believe it. For him it is a question of presenting himself in 2012 a bit like Obama did in 2008, that is, as the candidate of hope. Romney says “Americans are tired of being tired” He understands very well how to exploit his only real comparative advantage against Obama: his entrepreneurial image. He’ll say, ‘Let me run America like I run my professional career. You, too, can make a fortune.’ Deep in the economic crisis, the argument holds. When job creation comes to nothing or the American economy starts showing new signs of weakness, the gap between the two presidential candidates will narrow considerably, even if the polls still give the incumbent a slight lead.

But there is less talk now than before of Obama’s quasi-certain reelection. The economy is recovering too slowly, the opposition and, indeed, mistrust on the part of a large number of Americans toward the government has only been reinforced over the course of the four years of democratic presidency. Obama has a real challenger before him, even if Romney is completely uncharismatic. It all depends on the state of the American economy come autumn 2012, unless a major international crisis in the Middle East or Asia enters the campaign.

The parallels between the future American presidential election and the current French presidential election hold valuable lessons. On an ideological level, Obama is perhaps closer — in his willingness to fight against social injustice — to François Hollande than he is to Nicolas Sarkozy. But in practice, like the French president, he is in the uncomfortable position of being in power during a period of economic and financial crisis. Also like Sarkozy, but in a slightly different style, Obama possesses a charismatic personality. In regard to charisma, that is to say, the lack thereof, Romney and Hollande are much closer even if the affability of the Socialist has nothing in common with the coolness of the American Republican. The willingness to effect change seems less so in America than in France. Certainly, the enthusiasm that particularly animated young people supporting Obama’s candidacy has largely disappeared. The incumbent’s principal task, if he truly wants to be reelected, consists of rekindling the flame of his supporters. But there is no equivalent in the United States, against Obama, to the rejection in France against Sarkozy. At no point has Obama ever been accused of being un-presidential. On the other hand, if Obama was accused of anything, it was of not being decisive enough when presented with multiple options — an accusation already made against Hollande in France.

Having elected her first black president in 2008, will 2012 see America elect the first Mormon president in her history? It is much too soon to say.