Gay Marriage Is Changing the Landscape of the US Campaign

President Obama’s position in favor of gay marriage is changing the mechanics of the U.S. presidential campaign, including those related to campaign funds and turnout figures.

During the past week, gay marriage has been at the forefront of political and public debate across the ocean. A few days ago, U.S. President Barack Obama publicly acknowledged his support for gay marriage and stated that this way America would move forward. “I think same-sex couples should be able to get married”, said Obama. Yet he did not promise to adopt any specific measures in this sense if he was reelected. On the contrary, he declared that every state would make its own decision. Nevertheless, by merely publicly endorsing gay marriage, he made history.

There were signs from the very beginning that the Obama administration protected this minority: It stopped defending the Defense of Marriage Act in courts, it increased the civil rights of gay couples and it allowed open members of the gay community to serve in the U.S. armed forces. Even so, its position has never been this categorical.

Financial Calculations

It is not just about beliefs, but careful political and financial calculations as well. Financially, the campaign has already registered spectacular results: During the first 90 minutes after he made the statement, Obama raised donations amounting to $1 million. A few days later, at a fundraiser hosted at George Clooney’s mansion, where Obama talked once more about gay marriage, the campaign raked in another $15 million. After major banks stopped contributing to the reelection campaign, there was a need for new funding sources.

Political Unknowns

The fact is that one in six major contributors of the Democratic Party is gay, and the president’s reticence in adopting a clear position has been a reason for discontent for a long time. Now they have happily opened up their wallets.

For America, it seems natural for the first black president (who also comes from a mixed-race family — a type of union forbidden at that time in many U.S. states) to adopt a position in favor of a discriminated group. Politically, however, there are still many unknowns that are not related to political color. Age, opinion on religion and sexual minorities, as well as skin color, are instead the elements that determine whether certain categories of American citizens approve of Obama’s position and vote for him or not in the November presidential elections.

According to the Pew Research Center, the majority of gay marriage supporters are Americans younger than 30 (65 percent are in favor, 30 percent are against). The announcement, therefore, can attract young voters, according to The Guardian. A few days ago, the voters in North Carolina (a state Obama won in 2009) voted in favor of banning both gay marriages and civil unions. Another 29 U.S. states also have laws that include discriminatory clauses. Obama might also lose Florida, where the aging population has old-fashioned views on homosexuality.

His position might cost him a part of the votes of the African-American population. African-Americans and their churches oppose gay marriage more than other categories (only 39 percent are in favor, compared to 47 percent of white Americans). Obama runs the risk of inflaming the conservative base of Republican voters. There is now a clear line between the White House leader and Republican candidate Mitt Romney, who seems increasingly closer to the far right of American politics, notes The Guardian. “Marriage is between one man and one woman,” retorted the conservative Romney. The issue of homosexuality can also influence the large mass of voters who are yet undecided.

Obama did a great job anticipating the movement of this tectonic plate in American society. Surveys show that, if up to 2009 the number of gay marriage supporters rose by 1 percent a year, the growth has been 5 percent since 2010. Overall, 49 percent of Americans are in favor of this idea, while 40 percent are against it. Change can happen, but for now, it is still slow. This is, however, a risk that Obama has assumed.