The US Election Campaign: Obama’s Journey to Re-election Isn’t a Smooth Ride

With the Republican Party’s announcement of their final presidential nominee and only a six-month countdown to Election Day 2012, current U.S. president and Democratic incumbent Barack Obama finally launched his re-election campaign on May 5. His first two election rallies were in Ohio and Virginia, two must-win swing states. These two rallies officially mark Obama’s intention to preserve his seat in the White House, so his decision to designate the rallies at state universities was not without careful deliberation.

Showered in the enthusiastic cheers of his supporters, Obama recounted in his speech his “political achievements” as president, including stimulating economic recovery, the Medicare bill, the withdrawal of overseas troops, the assassination of al-Qaida leader Osama Bin Laden and more. He emphasized that, when he was elected over three years ago, he inherited an economically downtrodden America with high unemployment rates, but in the span of three years, the government has “made progress” with its commitment to alleviate unemployment, and must therefore keep “moving forward” to ensure the growth of job opportunities, as well as to preserve the equality and rights of the working middle-class. He stressed that America is making a comeback; yet in reality, Obama, who is finishing up his first term as president, has few achievements to boast about.

On the diplomatic front, he can only point to the completion of the “Bin Laden assassination,” which is a questionable bargaining chip for his re-election. Clearly, voters will not only demand a political party capable of handling a few terrorist organizations. When judging Obama’s first term political achievements, many have expressed their disappointment. After all, American influence in the Middle East has diminished dramatically; moreover, the Obama administration has appeared inadequate when it comes to problems regarding Iran and Syria. In terms of domestic economy, a subject of utmost concern to this election’s voters, Obama has the short end of the stick. While he has made some accomplishments with economic governance during his time at the White House, the pace of U.S.’ economic recovery is still all too sluggish. Even though GDP indicators hint at the U.S. overcoming its recession, opinion polls indicate that more than 68 percent of Americans feel that their country is still in the throes of a recession, with more than half of Americans believing that their economic situation will not improve within the next 12 months. For the average voter, a revitalized economy appears little more than a distant dream.

For the reasons just listed, Obama’s journey to his second-term in office will be a difficult one. It is obvious that voters are hoping Obama will do more than lead America on a hunt for terrorist leaders, or head a party to slay Somali pirates. From the diplomatic perspective, they wish America could fulfill its role as a world Super Police. Obama’s performance has been more or less a let-down in the eyes of the public: America has only hidden behind the curtains on the issue of strategic retreat from Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as in the Libyan conflict, and it has also failed to deal with problems with Iran and Syria in response to pressure from Russia and China. These facts have led the public to feel that Obama is shaping the U.S. decline in the international arena.

Faced with these conundrums, the U.S. government is currently using the media to promote news on Osama Bin Laden’s death and the retrial of 9/11 suspects, as if Obama will use these anti-terrorism qualifications as a ticket to his second term, even though it seems that the public does not regard these efforts as “achievements.” From Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, and finally to Syria, Iran and even North Korea, Obama’s policies tend to fall flat and lack the strong stances that Americans are used to, which will perhaps make many Americans lose interest in Obama.

For Obama, this race is unlike the one that he dealt with previously, for marketing his accomplishments to the voters will be the biggest challenge. The opposing party is going to target Obama’s political history to their own advantage, and Romney can easily use it to gain an upper hand. For instance, Obama showed demonstrably poor leadership over the problem of the Syrian no-fly zone, appeared incompetent with issues regarding Iran, showed cowardice with regard to North Korea, and made many missteps with his health care and economic policies. How Obama will convince voters that he can keep up with his promise of change remains to be seen. The most important issue on the plate is still economic recovery – the unemployment rate hovers around 8 percent, and the pace of economic recovery is an anemic one.

Analysts believe that Obama’s roadblocks to re-election are polarized demographics, the high unemployment rate and a slow comeback from the recession. Under his leadership, and through a number of corrective measures, the economy has revitalized some, but not enough. Thus, the status of the economic recovery and job market performance in the next six months will pose major challenges to Obama’s re-election. Romney’s repeated success en route to becoming the Republican nominee will also emit a strong threat to Obama’s second term. Republicans have unceremoniously attacked Obama, claiming that he is “young and inexperienced,” and adding that Americans have grown tired of his “rhetoric.”

Many media polls indicate that the gap between Obama and Romney is shrinking, with both candidates sharing equal voter support. Although Romney is still far behind in his campaign finances, Romney’s strongly supportive political action committee holds noticeable capital-accruing power, which Democrats have openly criticized. At the same time, Republicans are accusing Obama of using governmental occasions as platforms for his re-election, politicizing the death of bin Laden, for example. We can expect that in the next six months, the two parties will continue their attacks on each other as they vie for voter allegiance, and that economic issues will be the primary focus. The biggest variable lies in whether or not Obama can artfully use every remaining opportunity to demonstrate his superiority by, for instance, declaring war on Iran and Syria, or other measures that aim to gather popular support during critical turning points.

As for Obama’s opponent, Romney, his strongest suit is the economy. Thus, should Obama fail to come up with substantive initiatives to uplift the U.S. economy within the next six months, Romney may take the White House seat. While the economy is unequivocally the key to victory, outside of the word game, Obama can do little more than pray for a healthy U.S. economy. The November general election is dawning in less than 200 days, and Obama’s victory will depend on U.S. economic development. Should timely and significant economic improvements occur, Obama’s re-election will not be without hope; however, if voters are out of a job at the time of the election, then I fear Obama might have to start thinking about what kind of job he will find next year.