Russia’s Response to the US’ “Return” to the Asia-Pacific

Since Nov. 2011, the United States has strengthened its military offensive to “return” to the Asia-Pacific theater. There have been frequent visits to the garrisons of relevant countries in Asia, including Australia. There is a desire to establish Asian anti-missile systems. There is an attempt to draw ASEAN, Japan and Korea over to the American side and to build trans-Pacific strategic partnerships. The U.S. would also like to promote democracy in Myanmar and other countries. On Jan. 5, 2012, U.S. President Barack Obama announced a military strategy evaluation report, “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century.” It emphasized a strategic focus shift to the Asia-Pacific region. On Apr. 30, top U.S. officials held high-level talks with the Philippines and Japan that emphasized deepening the alliance between the countries. The U.S. has made moves to “return” to the Asia-Pacific again and again. There has been a temporary surge in unrest in the Asia-Pacific; it has been a stormy sea. This has caused the international community, including Russia, to pay close attention.

Russian Scholars’ Viewpoints on the United States’ “Return” to the Asia-Pacific

Russian scholars believe that the motivation behind the U.S.’ “return” to the Asia-Pacific is mainly to promote an American economic recovery. Other reasons include containing China, maintaining economic leadership, creating more balance in the Asia-Pacific balance of power, fulfilling responsibilities to allies and maintaining a dominant position in the Asia-Pacific, etc. To some extent, it reflects the old countries in the world safeguarding their vested interests and the old world order, while part of the “disobedient” emerging countries conducts a containment competition. Russian scholars have pointed out that America’s return to the Asia-Pacific violated the interests of Russia. With regard to Russia-U.S. relations and Sino-U.S. relations, both have been damaged. Such is the deepening of Russia-U.S. and Russia-China “strategic mutual doubt” and contradictions, etc. The Asia-Pacific situation is more complex and unstable. Therefore, they must strategically and actively respond to the U.S.’ “return” to the Asia-Pacific.

The next section concerns Russian academics differing opinions on how to deal with the U.S.’s “return” to the Asia-Pacific. But to sum it up, there are basically two propositions.

The first proposition can be called “discussions on assisting the U.S. to control China.” It puts forward that Russia would want to be between China and the U.S. and remain “neutral.” Russia would even help the U.S. balance China. Russia’s national interests would be maximized. Representative figures include Dmitri Trenin, etc. The second proposition can be called “discussions regarding cooperation to control the U.S.” They believe that the increase of the U.S.’ influence in the Asia-Pacific will damage Russia’s interests. They advocate strengthening their strategic collaborative relationships with China and other Asia-Pacific emerging countries. They also want to counterbalance U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific. Representatives include Vladimir Portyakov, Alexander Lukin and Mikhail Titarenko.

Those that propose the “discussions on assisting the U.S. to control China” proposition assess the outlook of Russia in the Asia-Pacific and have the following thoughts. Russia “is not only faced with being involved and the inherent risk of superpower conflict,” but is also faced with the possibility of sitting on top of the mountain to watch the fight between two tigers. They can also seek opportunities to profit at another’s expense.* Carnegie Moscow Center Director Dmitri Trenin believes that China’s rise is a severe challenge to Russia, especially regarding the Siberia region. Moscow should avoid unilaterally toppling toward Beijing. Russia must strengthen its relations with China and neighboring countries. Russia should especially collaborate with India to counterbalance China. Russia’s Academy on Geopolitical Affairs President Leonid Ivashov acknowledged the need for Russia and India to work together and strengthen their partnership to curb China’s energy considerations.

Those that propose the “discussions regarding cooperation to control the U.S.” proposition from a strategic point of view emphasize the importance and the role of the Asia-Pacific to Russia. The Russian Academy of Sciences, Far East Institute’s Vladimir Portyakov pointed out that Washington wants to restore and strengthen its ties with old allies in the Asia-Pacific region. Additionally, Washington wants to develop policies aiming at containing China. This undermines the interests of Russia. The Director of the East Asian Studies Center at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, Dmitri Mosyakov, pointed out that Russia is a Pacific Ocean country. Russia is very attractive throughout the Asia-Pacific region.

Most Russian scholars and even high-level decision-makers agree with the “discussions regarding cooperation to control the U.S.” position. They advocated strengthening strategic cooperation between Russia, China and other countries. They also mentioned the BRIC countries. They advocated collaboration within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and other multilateral initiatives to balance the influence of the United States and its allies. Alexander Lukin of Russia’s Foreign Affairs College pointed out that because of Russia’s contact with China and other Asian partners, Russia is at the heart of the world influence.

Russia Is Actively Adjusting Its Asia-Pacific Strategy

Faced with changes in the world and the Asia-Pacific situation, Russia adjusts its Asia-Pacific strategy and policy by starting from an overall strategy that takes position, economics, security and diplomacy into consideration.

First, take overall strategic thinking and positioning. Russia has gradually increased the “Europe-Asia doctrine” component in its national strategic thinking. Russia has put greater emphasis on the Asia-Pacific as it relies on a “Europe-Asia coalition” to be comprehensively restored to its pivotal role.

Yeltsin attached importance to a doctrine of the Atlantic Ocean, and that is different. Putin has put more emphasis on a Europe-Asia doctrine. Russia Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee member Sergei Karaganov advocated the “cultural Europeanization” of Russia’s future that lies within an “economic Asianization.” Therefore, Russia believes the world’s “center of gravity” is the West’s look to the Asia-Pacific as a “shift toward the East.” Russia’s strategic focus also should turn toward the Asia-Pacific “as an advance toward the East.”

Adjusting its Asia-Pacific strategy causes Russia’s “double-headed eagle strategy” to be more than just a name but also a reality. A report submitted by a Putin think tank, the Valdai Discussion Club’s “Towards the Great Ocean: Russia and Asia, or Russia in Asia,” makes Russia’s strategy to “advance Eastward” very clear. That is, at the same time, taking into account the interests of the participants in Russia’s Asia-Pacific affairs. Russia must further strengthen its cooperation with Asian countries, especially China’s trade and economic exchanges and political cooperation. Russia must comprehensively establish the image of major powers in the region. This should play an important role in the implementation of the strategy in Russia.

Second is economics. The financial crisis and debt crisis in Europe are making Russia’s Western markets shrink. Russia has its own financial difficulties. Russia’s economic strategy puts too much emphasis on Western adjustments by way of greater emphasis on strengthening economic ties with the Asia-Pacific.

The financial crisis and the European debt crisis have created trouble for Europe and the United States. On the contrary, sometimes this requires the same crisis-stricken Russia to provide assistance. Asia-Pacific countries, such as China, Korea and India, suffered a minimal impact. Their anti-crisis capacity and growth potential should not be overlooked. Russia provides good cooperation and development opportunities. Russia is in an urgent need to take the Asia-Pacific “economic express.” Russia needs to actively use the funds, technology and market for the economic development services of Asia-Pacific countries. In Feb. 2012, the Russian Federation’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia is set to strengthen its economic presence in Asia and the Pacific Ocean region and is developing in a direction that is a priority in Moscow. We should use the Asia-Pacific region as an opportunity, as it is very important to solve the problem of the revitalization of the Siberia and the Far East.

Russia is actively using the platform of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization, speeding up its integration into the Asia-Pacific economic integration process. In Sep. 2012 at Vladivostok, the APEC summit and the 2013 APEC Parliamentary Forum will promote Russia to accelerate the realization of the Far East economic development plan, Russia’s further integration into their economic life and the process of integration in the Asia-Pacific region. Former Russian President Medvedev wrote his paper on the “integration for the development of innovation and prosperity.” At the front of the fight against terrorism and transnational crime is Russia, who in 2012 resumes the primary task of the rotating presidency of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Andre Colodin, an expert at the Far East Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out that taking into consideration Russia as acting president of the Asia-Pacific Parliamentary Forum, their main task is to be more actively integration into the Asia-Pacific region. If Russia is included into the expanded Asian Free Trade Area, then this opens a promising door in Russia’s development.

Third is security. The U.S.’ return to the Asia-Pacific and other factors are making Russia’s security strategy bring more attention to the security and stability of the Asia-Pacific. Russia would have further involvement in Asia-Pacific security affairs and the opening of the arms market. This provides security for economic development.

Russia has deployed nearly half of its army’s elite troops and most of its navy’s main ships in the Far East. They have taken a tough stance on the four northern islands issue. Russia is showing strength in the Far East. This is designed to safeguard Russia’s security interests and to improve Russia’s “voiced rights” in Asia-Pacific affairs. A reduction of the U.S. missile defense system and NATO’s eastward expansion have put pressure on its western strategic space.

Russia introduced a relatively neutral and all-round cooperative security policy, and this is in response to adjustments in the U.S.’s military strategy. Sergei Lavrov says Russia has good reason to be considered as an important factor in the Asia-Pacific regional military political stability and sustained development. China, India and Vietnam are strategic partners of Russia in the Asia-Pacific region. Regarding the Apr. 24, 2012 Russia-China “Joint Maritime 2012” exercise, Andrei Davydov, an expert at the Far East Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out that Russian-Chinese military exercises are in part a response to the U.S. and its allies’ military exercises.

Anatoly Isaikin, the general manager of a Russian defense export company, pointed out that in the future Russia will further expand its market in the Asia-Pacific [arms traffic]. In 2011, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 43 percent of Russia’s exports of weapons and arms. In addition to India, Vietnam and other big customers of Russian weapons, Malaysia would like to buy sophisticated weapons from Russia. Indonesia, in its purchase of infantry-fighting vehicles and other weapons, would base it on the continued expansion of the types and quantities of Russian weapon imports. There are Sino-Russian military-technical cooperation projects. China cannot produce new weapons and spare parts, etc. Therein lays the potential for further cooperation.

Fourth is diplomacy. Russia will pay more attention to bilateral relations with China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries, as well as its participation in ASEAN and Asia-Pacific multilateral mechanisms.

Lavrov pointed out that Russia strengthened its policy response to Asia in 2011. With consideration to Russia, first is the effective integration of East Siberia and the Far East Asia-Pacific region. Russia under the BRIC mode will strengthen cooperation and develop relations with major countries in Asia, placing special attention to the development of strategic partnerships with China and India. Russia will deepen multi-faceted cooperation with Japan, South Korea, ASEAN and other Asia Pacific countries. And the United States participated in the East Asia Summit.

Russia will put further emphasis on multilateral occasions and Asia-Pacific diplomacy. In his diplomatic campaign platform, Putin specifically mentioned in an article entitled “Russia and the Ever-Changing World” that the role of the Asia-Pacific region in world affairs is being enhanced. He also expanded the view of Russia-China relations. Putin said, “Russia needs a prosperous and stable China, and China also needs a strong and successful Russia.” Putin said India is another important strategic partner in the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, we should also strengthen the role of the United Nations, the BRIC countries, the Group of Twenty, the Group of Eight, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, ASEAN, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization and other multilateral agencies.

*Translator’s note: The literal translation is “fish fights, fisherman gets the profit.”