So Many Traps For Barack Obama

Until now, it was only spoken of in Republican circles. But now fears and perplexities about the electoral fate of Obama are creeping into Democratic circles too, breaking for the first time a real and proper taboo. The victory of Republican Mitt Romney is no longer seen as improbable, but instead as a concrete possibility. The polls confirm this unquestionably. And the latest prediction published on June 7th by “The New York Times” shows Obama with only a 2 point advantage, with a margin that could swing in Romney’s favor if more bad news for the economy arises.

On the other hand the facts speak clearly. As of just a few weeks ago, Obama has come to be considered politically weaker, while Romney closes the gap like in a boxing ring. Unlike Bush Senior, who underestimated the value of the economy and thus, in 1992, lost the re-election to the White House, Obama recognizes the precise meaning of Bill Clinton’s famous formula, “It’s the economy, stupid.” The current president does not want to call on stupid, but the semi-independent variable economic disasters, internal and international, envelop him, threatening to suffocate him. The latest figures on the national economy—in particular, the creation of jobs in the private sector—are disappointing. Furthermore, Obama is fully aware of the fact that in history of the USA since 1936, no president has ever been re-elected with a disapproval rating higher than 7 percent. Obama is so preoccupied by this that lately he has seemed almost to be using the European crisis as an excuse and the source of all evils, knowing full well that he is also risking re-election depending on what happens in Europe and on how the American economy is affected. But to say preoccupied is an understatement.

Obama is literally obsessed with the possibility that the United States might suffer the same consequences caused by the Great Depression of 1929 as a result of the current crisis. Not by chance, in a recent video of his electoral campaign titled, “The Road We’ve Traveled,” the word “collapse” appears 17 times, along with the legendary images of his 2008 victory. This is accompanied by sequences focused on the offices of Lehman Brothers, with the sacked employees clearing out their offices, as well as on the effects of the property crisis and on black-and-white shots of the Great Depression. Through this, Obama aims to reassure the electorate that no one understands better than he the uneasiness tied to the economic problems. But at the same time, he knows that the presidential race must be transformed from a referendum centered on his management of the economy (from which he would emerge defeated) into a choice between the different proposed solutions offered by each candidate on how to manage the crisis.

The other great obsession with which the Democratic president is struggling is the Supreme Court. Obama fears the Court’s ruling on health reform, expected at the end of this month. Three outcomes are seen as possible. The judges could declare the reform compatible with the Constitution, dismiss it entirely, or declare the most fragile and controversial parts unconstitutional. The last two options would obviously be devastating for the Obama presidency. The same court could furthermore be called to rule on the legitimacy of gay marriage. In this area the president’s position reveals itself to be a complicated one. It is true that Obama has declared himself in favor of the union between persons of the same sex, but he has also shown conviction that the question will not be resolved at the federal level, but state by state; this situation is destined in all probability to generate a tangle of legal contradictions, in the face of which the final word would rest precisely with the Supreme Court.

But the real litmus test for the future electoral results will come from the so-called swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Together they make up 120 of the 538 electoral votes in the presidential election in November. Not by chance, the electoral campaigns of Obama and Romney are submerging the states in publicity messages with an extravagance of funds which, as of yesterday, can be collected even via SMS. The race to fundraise the most has the Republican candidate on top, like a new Rockefeller.