Edited by Jonathan Douglas
Other Countries Should Be Less Menacing and More Encouraging to North Korea
Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 11 July 2012
by Dan Renping (link to original)
On July 6 in Pyongyang, North Korea’s new leader Kim Jong-un watched a modern-style concert; Minnie Mouse and other Disney cartoon characters were moved onto the stage, arousing much discussion from the Western media. Many analysts consider this to be “abnormal” for North Korea, further guessing that this might be some kind of signal that North Korea will adjust its policies toward “openness.”
Will North Korea gradually move towards opening up? At the least, this kind of possibility definitely exists. North Korea is set not just in Asia, but also in an active belt of the global economy. China has accumulated abundant gradual opening and reform experience, which it can provide as a reference for North Korea. As the new leader, Kim Jong-un not only has power, but he also is just at the intellectually active age of thirty, and strategic developments that advance the country are obviously attractive to the new regime.
Presently, the most important thing is for northeast Asian regional politics to encourage North Korea to open up, not using one round after another of tense confrontation to continuously strengthen their sense of alarm. North Korea is the weakest country of the entire region in terms of total power, and three large powers — the U.S., Japan and South Korea — all view it as an enemy. Whatever willingness to open up that North Korea may have could easily be pushed away by this environment.
The U.S., Japan and South Korea often say that North Korea is the “root” of northeast Asian tensions; this kind of argument is really pointless. North Korea is so weak in comparison to these three countries; if the outside world wasn’t “leaving them no other choice,” if it really was the way that the U.S., Japan, and South Korea say it is — coming entirely from the demands of North Korea’s domestic politics — that obviously wouldn't be very logical.
In fact, since Kim Jong-un took office, attention grabbing changes have continuously appeared in North Korea. For example, as early as April, Kim Jong-un announced he “will transform North Korea into an information economy powerhouse,” further stating that in the future, North Korea must invest more energy and resources into the national economy and pay more attention to the people’s welfare.
In the long run, North Korea becoming involved in the economic integration of northeast Asia should be the general trend. As soon as this happens, it will not only be of benefit to North Korea itself. At the same time, it will benefit the entire region, with South Korea reaping particularly large benefits.
Analyzing the overall structure, North Korea is at a sort of crossroads. As to what direction North Korea will take in the future, it depends on one hand on Pyongyang. On the other hand, it depends on what direction the outside world will push them in. How South Korea treats the new regime will be particularly important.
We say this not because America won’t play an important role, but because the stance on North Korea taken by Americans is determined by their overall Asian policy, particularly the requirements of their diplomatic contest with China. On the other hand, [South] Koreans can be a little more sincere with North Korea and push North Korean policy so that it gradually leans toward the economy and the people’s welfare. This would create more benevolent North-South Korean relations. For South Korea, this would be all gain, no pain.
However, South Korea’s policy with its northern neighbor is regrettably becoming less and less independent. Rather, it has become a vow made while joining forces with America and Japan. The hostilities between Seoul and Pyongyang have become increasingly intense in recent years. Not only does South Korea not serve to buffer American and Japanese suppression of North Korea, but they also ask America and Japan to support them in their confrontations with North Korea.
The North Korean country is too small, and their diplomatic stances contain many elements that are actually molded by the outside world. Although, now the molding is realized through antagonism and is thus hard to perceive. If [South] Korea feels that the current methods of dealing with North Korea are exhausting, they should try to adjust their own behavior by making fewer threats in unison with America and Japan. If they do this, North Korea will definitely change.
Will North Korea gradually move towards opening up? At the least, this kind of possibility definitely exists. North Korea is set not just in Asia, but also in an active belt of the global economy. China has accumulated abundant gradual opening and reform experience, which it can provide as a reference for North Korea. As the new leader, Kim Jong-un not only has power, but he also is just at the intellectually active age of thirty, and strategic developments that advance the country are obviously attractive to the new regime.
Presently, the most important thing is for northeast Asian regional politics to encourage North Korea to open up, not using one round after another of tense confrontation to continuously strengthen their sense of alarm. North Korea is the weakest country of the entire region in terms of total power, and three large powers — the U.S., Japan and South Korea — all view it as an enemy. Whatever willingness to open up that North Korea may have could easily be pushed away by this environment.
The U.S., Japan and South Korea often say that North Korea is the “root” of northeast Asian tensions; this kind of argument is really pointless. North Korea is so weak in comparison to these three countries; if the outside world wasn’t “leaving them no other choice,” if it really was the way that the U.S., Japan, and South Korea say it is — coming entirely from the demands of North Korea’s domestic politics — that obviously wouldn't be very logical.
In fact, since Kim Jong-un took office, attention grabbing changes have continuously appeared in North Korea. For example, as early as April, Kim Jong-un announced he “will transform North Korea into an information economy powerhouse,” further stating that in the future, North Korea must invest more energy and resources into the national economy and pay more attention to the people’s welfare.
In the long run, North Korea becoming involved in the economic integration of northeast Asia should be the general trend. As soon as this happens, it will not only be of benefit to North Korea itself. At the same time, it will benefit the entire region, with South Korea reaping particularly large benefits.
Analyzing the overall structure, North Korea is at a sort of crossroads. As to what direction North Korea will take in the future, it depends on one hand on Pyongyang. On the other hand, it depends on what direction the outside world will push them in. How South Korea treats the new regime will be particularly important.
We say this not because America won’t play an important role, but because the stance on North Korea taken by Americans is determined by their overall Asian policy, particularly the requirements of their diplomatic contest with China. On the other hand, [South] Koreans can be a little more sincere with North Korea and push North Korean policy so that it gradually leans toward the economy and the people’s welfare. This would create more benevolent North-South Korean relations. For South Korea, this would be all gain, no pain.
However, South Korea’s policy with its northern neighbor is regrettably becoming less and less independent. Rather, it has become a vow made while joining forces with America and Japan. The hostilities between Seoul and Pyongyang have become increasingly intense in recent years. Not only does South Korea not serve to buffer American and Japanese suppression of North Korea, but they also ask America and Japan to support them in their confrontations with North Korea.
The North Korean country is too small, and their diplomatic stances contain many elements that are actually molded by the outside world. Although, now the molding is realized through antagonism and is thus hard to perceive. If [South] Korea feels that the current methods of dealing with North Korea are exhausting, they should try to adjust their own behavior by making fewer threats in unison with America and Japan. If they do this, North Korea will definitely change.