Other Countries Should Be Less Menacing and More Encouraging to North Korea

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 11 July 2012
by Dan Renping (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Peter Nix. Edited by .

Edited by Jonathan Douglas

On July 6 in Pyongyang, North Korea’s new leader Kim Jong-un watched a modern-style concert; Minnie Mouse and other Disney cartoon characters were moved onto the stage, arousing much discussion from the Western media. Many analysts consider this to be “abnormal” for North Korea, further guessing that this might be some kind of signal that North Korea will adjust its policies toward “openness.”

Will North Korea gradually move towards opening up? At the least, this kind of possibility definitely exists. North Korea is set not just in Asia, but also in an active belt of the global economy. China has accumulated abundant gradual opening and reform experience, which it can provide as a reference for North Korea. As the new leader, Kim Jong-un not only has power, but he also is just at the intellectually active age of thirty, and strategic developments that advance the country are obviously attractive to the new regime.

Presently, the most important thing is for northeast Asian regional politics to encourage North Korea to open up, not using one round after another of tense confrontation to continuously strengthen their sense of alarm. North Korea is the weakest country of the entire region in terms of total power, and three large powers — the U.S., Japan and South Korea — all view it as an enemy. Whatever willingness to open up that North Korea may have could easily be pushed away by this environment.

The U.S., Japan and South Korea often say that North Korea is the “root” of northeast Asian tensions; this kind of argument is really pointless. North Korea is so weak in comparison to these three countries; if the outside world wasn’t “leaving them no other choice,” if it really was the way that the U.S., Japan, and South Korea say it is — coming entirely from the demands of North Korea’s domestic politics — that obviously wouldn't be very logical.

In fact, since Kim Jong-un took office, attention grabbing changes have continuously appeared in North Korea. For example, as early as April, Kim Jong-un announced he “will transform North Korea into an information economy powerhouse,” further stating that in the future, North Korea must invest more energy and resources into the national economy and pay more attention to the people’s welfare.

In the long run, North Korea becoming involved in the economic integration of northeast Asia should be the general trend. As soon as this happens, it will not only be of benefit to North Korea itself. At the same time, it will benefit the entire region, with South Korea reaping particularly large benefits.

Analyzing the overall structure, North Korea is at a sort of crossroads. As to what direction North Korea will take in the future, it depends on one hand on Pyongyang. On the other hand, it depends on what direction the outside world will push them in. How South Korea treats the new regime will be particularly important.

We say this not because America won’t play an important role, but because the stance on North Korea taken by Americans is determined by their overall Asian policy, particularly the requirements of their diplomatic contest with China. On the other hand, [South] Koreans can be a little more sincere with North Korea and push North Korean policy so that it gradually leans toward the economy and the people’s welfare. This would create more benevolent North-South Korean relations. For South Korea, this would be all gain, no pain.

However, South Korea’s policy with its northern neighbor is regrettably becoming less and less independent. Rather, it has become a vow made while joining forces with America and Japan. The hostilities between Seoul and Pyongyang have become increasingly intense in recent years. Not only does South Korea not serve to buffer American and Japanese suppression of North Korea, but they also ask America and Japan to support them in their confrontations with North Korea.

The North Korean country is too small, and their diplomatic stances contain many elements that are actually molded by the outside world. Although, now the molding is realized through antagonism and is thus hard to perceive. If [South] Korea feels that the current methods of dealing with North Korea are exhausting, they should try to adjust their own behavior by making fewer threats in unison with America and Japan. If they do this, North Korea will definitely change.


朝鲜新领导人金正恩7月6日在平壤观看了一台现代风格的音乐会,米老鼠等迪士尼动画形象被搬上舞台,引起西方媒体的大量议论。很多分析认为这对朝鲜“不同寻常”,并猜这可能是朝鲜向“开放”调整政策的某种信号。

  朝鲜会逐渐走向开放吗?至少这种可能性完全存在。朝鲜周围不仅是亚洲,也是世界经济的活跃带。中国积累了渐进开放和改革的丰富经验,可供朝鲜参考。金正恩作为新领导人不仅有权威,而且正值思维活跃的而立之年,推动国家的战略性前进对新政权显然有吸引力。

  现在最重要的是,东北亚地缘政治要鼓励朝鲜开放,而不是用一轮接一轮的紧张对峙反复强化它的警惕性。朝鲜是整个地区综合力量最弱的国家,美日韩三大力量对它敌视,平壤有什么样的开放之心,都很容易被环境压回去。

  美日韩经常说,朝鲜是东北亚紧张的“根源”,这样的争执非常无聊。朝鲜在三国面前如此弱小,它与三国的敌对如果没有因外界所逼“迫不得已”的因素,而只是像美日韩说的那样,完全出于其国内政治的需要,显然不太合逻辑。

  其实金正恩执政以来,朝鲜不断有吸引人的变化出现。比如早在4月份,金正恩就宣布“要把朝鲜建设成为知识经济型强国”,他还表示朝鲜今后要把更多精力和财力投向国民经济,关注民生。

  朝鲜从长远看与东北亚的经济一体化形成互动应为大趋势,一旦出现该局面,首先有利于朝鲜自己,同时也有利于整个地区,韩国尤其会从中受益。

  从大格局分析,朝鲜处于某种十字路口。对于朝鲜今后朝哪个方向走,一方面取决于平壤,另一方面取决于外界将它往哪个方向推。其中韩国如何对待朝鲜新政权,将很关键。

  我们这样说,并不是因为美国的作用不重要,而是因为美国对朝鲜持何态度取决于它的整体亚洲政策,特别是它同中国博弈的需求。而韩国则可以对朝鲜更真诚些,推动朝鲜的国策向经济和民生逐渐倾斜,建立更善意的朝韩关系,这对韩国有百利而无一害。

  然而遗憾的是,韩国的北方政策越来越不独立,而成了其同美日抱成一团的宣誓板。首尔同平壤的敌对这几年越来越尖锐,韩国不仅起不到缓冲美日压制朝鲜的作用,反而要美日为它与朝鲜对抗撑腰。

  朝鲜的国家体量太小,它的外交姿态其实有很多被外界塑造的成分,只不过现在塑造是通过对立实现的,不太容易被察觉。韩国如果觉得当前与朝鲜相处的方式很累,那么它就应当试着调整自己的行为,减少同美日联手对朝鲜的威胁。那样的话,朝鲜一定会有变化。▲(作者是《环球时报》评论员)
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