Obama’s Best Enemy

Every minute that Mitt Romney and Barack Obama spend talking about jobs, Obama is losing. Every minute spent talking about other topics, Barack Obama is going to win these elections.

A simple, crystal clear, fulminant statement. These are the words of a respected analyst of the right, David Frum, former speechwriter of George W. Bush, interviewed last Sunday on CBS. Commenting on the choice of Paul Ryan as number two in the Republican presidential ticket, he said that it is a choice that moves the narrative of the presidential clash in November in Barack Obama’s favor. It points the headlights of the media and the electorate to two very delicate themes that are strongly felt by the electorate, even the conservatives. These include the revision of Medicare and the Republican proposal of further tax cuts for the wealthy. With the spotlight shifted to those issues, the economic crisis and unemployment (the thorns in the side of the U.S. president) they are able to escape much of the attention. “The Democrats are dancing in the streets at the moment,” comments Cokie Roberts on ABC World News,* reminding how Paul Ryan has been the number one target, over the past two years, of the Democratic offensive. He has been labeled the “Boogie Man,” the monster who scares children when the lights are turned off.

The voices of Frum and Roberts provide a good tone on popular Sunday television talk shows that analyze the political week and forecast the dynamics of the one that is coming. And Aug 12 was the Sunday of Paul Ryan, who was dissected and observed using the deepest details of his personal life and career. It was not a coincidence that the Romney team chose Saturday for the announcement. They clearly wanted to obtain the maximum amount of response the day after television and Sunday newspaper coverage, which are much more generous than usual political pages.

The desired result was obtained. The media event had the positive effect of giving momentum and quickly polishing the Republican candidate’s boring campaign. The concept of Ryan seems to be working with inquiring audiences who crowd the initiatives of Romney’s electoral tour. Next to the electoral right, the Wisconsin congressman exercises the same draw that Sarah Palin did four years ago, without the contradictions of an improvised candidacy and careless and evidently conflicting with that of the presidential candidate. (Also, it is official, the vice presidential candidate of the 2008 Republican ticket will not intervene in the Republican National Convention in Tampa). And, unlike Palin, Ryan is a well-considered politician not only in his camp, but also in the Democratic one.

Mitt Romney, in presenting him, placed emphasis on “transversal politics,” which the 42-year-old of Wisconsinite enjoys. This was interpreted as an underscore of the personality and profile of Ryan, which should render him welcomed by the independent and centrist electorate.

But in terms of political substance, the vice presidential candidate is extremely conservative and embodies everything that the Democrats combat against. “My opponent,” commented Obama in a meeting in his Chicago, “chose his running mate: the ideological leader of the Republicans in Congress.” One wonders why Republican strategists ultimately chose a candidate that is perhaps more appealing to the Democrats. According to Nate Silver, who writes the popular FiveThirtyEight column for The New York Times, the choice was dictated by the necessity of giving a much needed shake to the electoral campaign that up until then was followed by the status quo. Before Ryan, the boring campaign would likely have led to the loss of the Republican candidate. For months, Romney’s strategy has been characterized as an obsessive hammering on the handling of the economy of the White House, which is already Obama’s weak point. Regarding the issue, however, the polls continue to give him a substantial advantage.

In the forecasting model developed by Silver, the president is the favorite by 70 percent. Of course the scene from here until November can change. An international crisis, more catastrophic news concerning employment — anything can happen. But the economy by itself as an issue does not work in the anti-Obama narrative. In general, though, when a move is made, it is not to radicalize the campaign, but to move it closer to the center. In choosing Ryan, Romney took the opposite road. It is a very risky investment, as evidenced by the startling effect of the announcement, but only the dynamics of the weeks to come will tell if it was the right direction.

Editor’s note: This quote, although accurately translated, could not be verified in English.