Obama and Romney vs. the Chinese Dragon

The voters of the peaceful Midwestern state of Ohio have recently been bombarded with TV advertisements promising an apparent economic war on China. The ads brand the Chinese “cheaters.” The voters reside in the Republican camp, so if the party’s candidate, Mitt Romney, does not win the vote of Ohio, a key state in the presidential race, then he stands a good chance of losing the November 6 election.

Mr. Romney hammers home that China is a disloyal business rival, largely responsible for America’s industrial troubles. He has made this topic one of the focal points of his campaign. If he is elected to the White House, he will accuse China of “manipulating” its currency’s exchange rate. This does not come without consequences, however. This will almost automatically result in a series of commercial sanctions against China. In short, economic war.

Mr. Romney criticizes Barack Obama’s “weakness” regarding Chinese “mercantilism”. The president did not remain on the defensive. He knows that the anti-Chinese speeches are buoyant among voters traumatized by unemployment and the economic crisis. Fascinated by China’s increasing power, America detects the reflection of what it often mistakenly perceives as its own decline.

The reply of the Democratic shepherd to the Republican shepherdess, Mr. Obama has just asked the World Trade Organization to sanction Chinese exporters of detached car parts (a key sector in Ohio coincidentally). Washington wants them to be subsidized. Mr. Obama had already ruled against Chinese tire exporters.

The Dragon reacted half-heartedly. Beijing is used to attacks with anti-Chinese rhetoric that come up during each American electoral campaign. After the election, the relationship between China and the United States becomes more peaceful. It is the vengeance of a complex reality.

On the one hand, the United States is often seen pointing out China’s methods of protecting its own markets and boosting its manufacturers. On the other hand, China has nonetheless become the most promising market for American exporters, given its rapid rate of growth.

As the principal investor in the U.S. Treasury (nothing is safer in the eyes of Beijing), China finances a federal state as expensive as a European “Club Med” country. It is so difficult to wage war on a country that is both a partner and a rival, and China is enticed to invest in the United States. A number of mayors and governors in America, notably in the Midwest, try to woo Chinese investors who are showing an ever growing interest in establishing themselves in America.

The relationship between the world’s largest and second largest economies is an explosive mix of hostility and complicity, which will largely determine the shape of this century.