Viewing US-China Trade Relations through the Presidential Debates

Published in Wen Wei Po
(Hong Kong) on 24 October 2012
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Kyrstie Lane.
The curtain has closed on the final U.S. presidential debate. Incumbent President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney were surprisingly similar on matters concerning China, and neither neglected to make use of the topic in their bid for votes. Because the U.S. economic recovery remains weak, painting China as a scapegoat for the economic depression can be used to divert voters' attention. In reality, regardless of who is elected or which candidate has not yet proposed an effective plan to revitalize the faltering economy, "trade friction" between China and the U.S. is inevitable. China should mentally prepare itself for this and have a plan ready to respond. As for the trade disputes and tariffs that the U.S. has leveled against China, China should approach the problem from multiple angles. It should use legal firepower and file a suit under the framework of the World Trade Organization, and at the same time use retaliatory measures in kind to make the U.S. understand that protectionism can only cause greater harm to U.S. businesses.

In every U.S. election, the Democratic and Republican candidates lock horns over their policies toward China. The general consensus in the past has been that the Republican Party, which advocates free trade, takes a relatively more amicable stance toward China, while the labor union-backed Democratic Party is more hard-line. However, despite the fact that both candidates this year have emphasized that China can become a partner of the U.S., they have still pointed fingers while discussing U.S. unemployment, the trade deficit with China and other issues during the debates.

To hold China up as a scapegoat for the U.S. economic depression is not only inconsistent with reality, but is also far from being just and equitable. The U.S. has received numerous benefits from its trade with China, including an expansive market, low-priced goods, and increased employment. From less than $2.5 billion in trade when China and the U.S. opened diplomatic ties in 1979, aggregate bilateral trade has increased to nearly 180 times that size with last year's $446.6 billion. The two nations have long since become the second-largest trading partner of the other, and China has been the fastest-growing export market of the U.S. for the past ten years. While it is true that China has seen some benefits from developing these trade relations, it has similarly been advantageous for the U.S. Despite this, the U.S. is growing increasingly apprehensive about China from a strategic standpoint, and putting China in check has become its long-term strategy. As a result, regardless of who is elected, the U.S. will pursue its course of enacting trade policies to contain China even more strongly.

The U.S. general election has politicized U.S.-China trade issues out of necessity. But shifting America's domestic problems onto China will ruin the atmosphere of economic cooperation that the two countries have developed. This does not serve the interests of the U.S., China, or their peoples, nor does it have a positive impact on the global economic recovery. At present, the U.S. and China are both in the midst of power transitions, and relations between the two have already become extremely sensitive. The U.S. candidates attacking China is not advantageous to bilateral relations. Both nations must actively put forth an effort to establish a stable strategic framework for U.S.-China relations


美國總統大選最後一場辯論落幕。現任總統奧巴馬與共和黨總統候選人羅姆尼在涉華問題上驚人一致,均不忘繼續利用中國話題為競選拉票。由於美國經濟復甦乏力,把中國作為美國經濟低迷的「替罪羊」,可以轉移選民的視線。事實上,無論誰當選及對經濟衰退未能提出有效振興計劃,中美「貿易摩擦」在所難免,對此中國應有思想準備和應對計劃。針對美國挑起對中國的貿易糾紛和制裁,中國應多管齊下,要運用法律的武器,在WTO框架下展開訴訟,同時以針鋒相對反制裁的舉動,讓美國明白,保護主義不能保全自己,反而會給美國企業帶來更大損害。

凡是美國總統大選年,民主黨與共和黨的候選人在對華政策上都要較量一下。過往公眾的印象是,倡導自由貿易的共和黨對華相對友好,以工會為票倉的民主黨對華相對強硬。但本次兩黨候選人儘管都強調中國可以成為美國的夥伴,但在辯論中依然就美國就業、中美貿易逆差等問題指責中國。

把中國作為美國經濟低迷的「替罪羊」既不符事實,更不講道義和公允。美國在對華貿易中得到擴大市場、獲得價廉物美商品、增加本國就業等諸多實惠。從1979年中美建交時中美貿易不足25億美元,發展到去年雙邊貿易總規模4466億美元,增長了將近180倍。兩國早已互為第二大貿易夥伴,而中國已經連續10年成為美國增長最快的出口市場。中國從發展中美經貿關係中固然得到一些好處,但美國同樣獲利豐厚。雖然如此,由於美國在戰略上對華日益焦慮、戒備,遏制中國成為美國的長期戰略,因此無論誰當選,美國「遏華」貿易政策的趨勢只會有增無減。

美國大選出於政治需要將中美經貿問題政治化,把美國國內矛盾轉嫁給中國的做法,將破壞兩國經貿合作發展的氛圍,這既不符合中美兩國和兩國人民的利益,對全球經濟復甦也會造成不利的影響。目前中美兩國政府都在換屆之際,中美關係已經變得非常敏感,美國候選人抨擊中國不利於中美關係。為重建中美關係的戰略穩定框架,中美雙方都有必要作出積極的努力。
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