The Last Debate Will Not Change the Race Significantly

I did not see anything in this third and final presidential debate that could change the race for the White House. The main subject during this debate was foreign policy.

Barack Obama aimed to be more aggressive and paint his opponent as a flip-flopper. However, Mitt Romney stayed calm. He defended himself at times but managed to achieve his two apparent objectives. The first was to appear presidential and informed about international affairs. The second was to not make any blunders and thus not jeopardize the dynamic that shows him gaining ground in opinion polls.

However, Obama could not help appearing condescending and wry. I found it irritating and not very presidential. Does this attitude appeal to his supporters? For the undecided voters, seeing him be so negative could be counterproductive, especially since he remains vague on his plan for the next four years. He would benefit from seeing things with more perspective and less disdain.

It also seems that the president is mostly fighting to save his job rather than trying to develop a concrete project for the future.

The night of the debate, Mitt Romney managed to convey an important message, which is that he does not want to make war. Despite what Joe Biden seemed to suggest a few days ago, Romney’s objective is not to invade Iran or Syria. He agrees that U.S soldiers should leave Afghanistan in 2014. He is also willing to speak directly with Iran in order to avoid war and oblige Tehran to give up its nuclear program. Finally, Mitt Romney thinks he is very different from George W. Bush.

Romney also insisted that al-Qaida is not dead, that a dangerous unrest reigns in the Arab world, that Iran is more ready than ever to have an atomic bomb… and in light of all this, he congratulates Obama on the success of his policies.

Yet, are Romney’s solutions so much better? I do not think so, but I do not think they are ridiculous either. They are certainly less naïve and more progressive than Obama’s were four years ago.

So what can be concluded from that night? The outgoing president could very well win the elections on Nov. 6.

If Mitt Romney does not obtain a majority in Ohio, it will be very hard for him to achieve the required 271* votes from the Electoral College. It is still possible provided he wins in Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. However, Wisconsin is still very clearly in favor of Obama. Nevada and Pennsylvania are the states that could turn to the advantage of Romney. For now, though, polls do not indicate that this will be the case.

Everything is now a matter of “dynamic” or “momentum” as we say here. History has shown that the majority of undecided voters tend to go for the challenger just before the election. If the dynamic of the last four weeks remains the same, Mitt Romney will win. As we saw Florida, then North Carolina, then Virginia turn to the Republicans, other swing states could turn too.

If the Republicans’ motivation is stronger than Obama’s unusual coalition that elected him in 2008, the U.S. will change presidents. Let us not forget that Republicans did not entirely support John McCain four years ago.

Conversely, Barack Obama benefits from recent economic signs that are more positive than had been predicted. Rising opinion polls in these last few weeks and the real estate recovery are positive points that Obama can use to justify that his policies were successful in the end.

* Editor’s note: 270 electoral votes are needed to win the 2012 presidential election.