America Becomes "First Among Equals"

U.S. intelligence analysts predict the future of the planet.

As the influential American newspaper The Washington Post recently reported, the relationship between Russia and the U.S. — especially in recent months — has not been proceeding in the most beneficial way. A few experts even think that a Cold War model has once again resurfaced. In the opinion of a few American specialists, this signifies nothing other than a U.S. rejection of attempts to continue the “reset” in mutual cooperation, both between the two countries and in the global arena. The newspaper notes, “From Russia’s perspective, Obama has ignored or overridden its concerns on two major issues — missile defense and the military intervention in Libya,” as well as other problems.

U.S. officials and experts, according to The Washington Post, confirmed that the White House was aware that Putin would not be easy to deal with, but the rapid decline in relations was a surprise. Mark Katz, a Russia specialist at George Mason University, told reporters, “A lot of Russians feel this way, but Putin feels it very deeply — that no matter what he does, the Americans will take advantage of them.”

In this sense, one cannot forget the influential report published last year by the analytical arm of the U.S. intelligence community, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), containing the opinions of experts who have the closest attention of American politicians and White House officials.

Global Trends

Published for the fifth time since the formation of the NIC, the report consists of 162 pages. It is titled “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.” As head of the NIC Christopher Kojm says in the foreword, the main goal in conducting this evaluation was the development of perspectives on the world’s future situation. In formulating U.S. development strategy, American government and political figures should consider the expert views of intelligence analysts about the future. They must clearly envision the possible directions of development and the levels of confidence concerning sharp and unforeseen changes in the international situation.

By 2030, the population of the planet will have risen by 1.2 billion people and will live under completely changed conditions. Intelligence experts have defined four possible global trends in the development of the future world.

The primary trend in world development will be the unprecedented independence of various governments in making political decisions and their opportunities to influence the development of political events in their constituent social groups. The governments of various countries will more and more frequently present their own solutions to global problems. Individual representatives and small social organizations in these countries will have broader access to military technology, including precision weapons, the means for cyberwarfare and biological weapons to carry out terrorist acts. This could lead to a capacity for large-scale attacks, which currently can only be accomplished by government authorities.

In this period, the numbers of the middle class could significantly grow in the majority of the world’s countries. By 2030 this part of the world’s population could reach 3 billion. It is quite foreseeable that they will become remarkably strong in many social and economic spheres. Many extant and future communications technologies will significantly increase opportunities for individual citizens and social groups to seriously influence the policies and decisions of the government. Moreover, the rising numbers of the middle class could contribute to ideological conflict between the ongoing globalization of the West and developing countries. And in those very countries the local situation could be reflected in the religious, ethnic and cultural sectors of society.

Analysts believe that the second significant global development trend will be the diffusion of power among various countries and new opportunities for informal structures to make fundamental decisions of national significance. American intelligence analysts believe that the influence of this trend will have dramatic consequences in 2030. It will lead to the weakening of the West’s influence — which has grown historically since 1750 — and to the restoration of the important roles of former Third World countries in world economics and politics. Only China, with all confidence, will have the most powerful economy and will surpass the U.S. a few years before 2030. The economies of Europe, Japan and Russia will continue their slow decline from the desired level. And today, such second-tier countries as Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran and a few others are beginning to approach Europe, Japan and Russia in terms of the degree of influence they have over resolving issues of global importance.

The third global trend that will develop by 2030 is the growth of the planet’s population from the current 7.2 billion people to 8.3 billion. In connection with this, in the West and in the most developed countries the population will age, but in poorly developed countries it will markedly become more youthful. This will significantly influence the mutual relations between the world’s nations, and the problem of mass migrations to developed countries will be a stark addition to the agenda. There will be urbanization of previously agricultural countries, which will give rise to considerable problems with providing their citizens with food and water. Experts estimate that in China alone the number of internal migrants is currently as high as 250 million and growing. Such a trend is also noted in many Third World countries.

Today, according to American intelligence experts, the average age of the general population in more than 80 countries is 25 years. 80 percent of these citizens are engaged in social and ethnic armed conflicts. In that context, there are many clashes of opposing parties. In each clash up to 25 people typically die. The authors predict that by 2030 the number of such countries will decrease to 50.

The final global trend is the change in living conditions of the population on Earth. The NIC experts attribute the growing demand for grain, water and energy to the people of a few countries and the change in climate conditions. According to them, in the next 20 years these problems could be solved pretty successfully with the help of developing technologies; however, the price of resources will significantly increase.

Future Conflicts

As the authors of the report note, the proportion of youthful countries experiencing bloody and severe internal conflicts fell from 25 percent in 1995 to 15 percent in 2005. In the predicted period this trend will affect a number of countries in Latin America and Asia, in which the average age of the population will begin to exceed 25 years. Nonetheless, the risk of outbreak of similar conflicts in the next 20 years continues to be fairly high in a few regions of the planet. This applies to sub-Saharan Africa, a few areas of the Near East and South Asia, and a few island countries of the Asia-Pacific basin. The outbreak of similar conflicts will mainly be a result of inadequate water resources and agricultural land. The initiators and the main forces of such clashes will be the young populations of these countries, who will be highly dissatisfied with their own social situations.

Most of the armed conflict in these countries will have the character of partisan actions, including terrorist and subversive anti-government actions, insurgent and criminal groups, and sabotage. Proliferation of precision weapons could make these clashes more like traditional military operations.

In the last 10 years the number of intergovernmental conflicts stayed at a fairly low level. Currently, more countries are trying to maintain their military potential at a significantly lower level than their domestic capacity. Nonetheless, the great fragmentation of the state system of the planet raises the risk of similar conflicts arising. Moreover, competition for natural resources, the proliferation of military technology and intergovernmental conflicts on a regional scale will considerably increase the possibility of outbreak of traditional wars.

Future wars in Asia and the Near East could lead to the use of a few types of nuclear weapons. The proliferation of remote-controlled missiles raises the possibility of non-state actors conducting military actions. And differences between traditional and nontraditional means of military action could completely disappear if the regular forces of a few countries begin to use guerrilla warfare tactics.

Russia’s Global Future

The American intelligence analysts believe that in the next 20 years Russia’s role will be determined, first of all, by the growth of internal and external problems facing its leaders. The economy will be Russia’s Achilles’ heel. The dependence of the national budget on income received from the energy trade, the insignificant success in the modernization of agriculture and the aging of the workforce will significantly impede further economic growth. This will happen against the background of a declining Russian population. In the next 20 years the population of the country will fall by 13 million, and in 2030 it will consist of only 130 million people.

Moscow’s other problems, according to the American experts, include the rapid growth of the Muslim population against the background of a falling population of native people. Around 20 million Muslims currently live in the country, and they constitute 14 percent of the overall population. By 2030 their number will grow to 19 percent. The change in the ethnic relations of Russian citizens could become a source of growing social tension.

The NIC experts believe that for the intensive development of Russia’s economy it is necessary to establish more favorable conditions for the growth of internal investment and to raise the volume of the export of domestic goods. The entry of Russia into the WTO could give a boost to the development of its economy and enable the GDP to rise by 3 percent in the short term, 11 percent in the long term.

The Kremlin’s relationship with the West and China is a fundamental factor for stabilization and improving the constructiveness of its role on the world stage in the next 20 years.

Russia could continue a policy of more or less ambivalent relations with a few countries; however, in the next 20 years such an approach could establish a considerable difficulty in international cooperation if the country’s government continues to increase its military potential and enters into confrontation with a strengthening China.

According to the NIC experts, Russia could become a very dangerous power if it tries to use its military superiority to establish a dominant position among its neighbors. In the political sense, Russia’s strategic position will depend a great deal on how much its leaders can integrate the country into international society, which would significantly lower the risk of armed conflict in the future. If the Kremlin continues to conduct a policy of isolationism and distrust of other countries, that will lead to an increase in tension in the relations between these other countries and Russia.

Russian leadership is currently very concerned about the threat posed by the rapid development of China. It is especially worried by Beijing’s aspirations to the natural resources of Russia’s Far East and Siberian regions, which could gradually become surrounded since the Chinese population in these parts of Russia is constantly growing. The Kremlin also worries that, in the future, NATO could participate militarily in resolving conflicts that might arise between Russia and one or another of the former Soviet republics.

The American analysts believe that erupting intergovernmental conflicts will take a variety of forms of military action. Possible wars in Asia — in which Russia, China and India or Pakistan might participate — would not only be conventional, but could also see the use of nuclear weapons.

In concluding their evaluation, the analysts indicate that America, despite some decline in its economic role and political importance on the world stage, has a good chance in the next 20 years of keeping its leadership position among other great powers, but it will only be “first among equals.”