Obama’s Trip to the Middle East Is Quite a Dilemma

Published in Huanqiu
(China ) on 20 March 2013
by Hua Yiwen (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jingman Xiao. Edited by Kathleen Weinberger.
On March 19, U.S. President Obama set off for Israel, the West Bank and Jordan to start off the first visit of his second term. Is this visit going to be an opportunity for restarting the Middle East peace process? Will there be any adjustment to the Obama aministration’s Middle East policy? Before Air Force One had taken off, negative remarks regarding this visit were already rife. The White House and Obama also tried to lower the expectations of the public, claiming that no grand peace plan would be in their agenda this time. Obama’s indecisiveness is palpable.

Obama was meaning to make some progress on the Middle East issue. At the beginning of his first term, he had high hopes and talked about the Palestinian-Israeli problem with high gestures when giving his speech in Cairo in June 2009. He reiterated the two-state solution and its role in facilitating the Middle East peace process and hoped for a “brand new” start between America and the Arab world. In the speech he made in May 2011 on Middle East policy, he brought up the suggestion that peace talks between Palestine and Israel should be organized again and claimed that the border between Israel and Palestine must be based on the 1967 lines. Additionally, he expected that the impetus of the Arab Spring would prompt political reforms and democratic movements of the Middle East and North Africa and that U.S. Middle East policy would start a new era.

However, things have gone against his wishes. Not long before the peace talks resumed in 2010, they were interrupted again. The Palestinians thought Obama fell short of necessary action, while the good impression that he left on Israel also worsened. Domestically, his political opponents criticized him for betraying their ally, Israel. Obama seemed to have disappointed all the parties. The Arab Spring turned in to the “Arab Winter,” an increasingly messy situation which deterred America from gaining what it had expected from geopolitics. The security and environment in Israel deteriorated rather than improved. Obama’s enthusiasm for the Arab Spring was obstructed.

The solutions to two other fundamental problems have not been found yet. Obama’s government’s primary goal is to overthrow Bashar Assad’s government without being involved directly. As for the Iran nuclear dilemma, he has persistently stated that he wants to take part in dialogue and adopt only diplomatic means, while at the same time placing more sanctions on Iran and seeking to isolate it by raising further conditions and obstacles.

His indecisiveness can be attributed to the following two points: the complex nature of the problem itself and the diversity of U.S. interests in the Middle East. During the Cold War, under the persuasion of the Jewish party, the U.S. cooperated with Israel, aiming to gain interests in terms of energy and resources.* By exercising a balance of power, the U.S. became deeply involved in the Middle East problem, as it was actively competing with the USSR. After the Cold War, democracy, anti-terrorism and anti-proliferation were marked as the pillars of its Middle East policy, which essentially are merely excuses for them to suppress and annihilate the other parties and therefore have caused more trouble. The root lies in the fact that the U.S. has contradictory goals and thus cannot match its actions to its words.

The Middle East is in chaos. The ‘rebalance’ of the American global strategy introduced in Obama’s first term was oriented toward the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East, with a tilt toward Asia. However, the significance of the conflicts in the Middle East rises, rather than falls, and takes up a considerable amount of Obama’s time.

America, with its own power and influence in the Middle East, has the potential to launch the Middle East peace process. If Obama wants to save himself some trouble, he has to know what to give up on, focus less on the U.S.’ own interests and domestic politics and think more from the holistic perspective regarding the stabilization of the situation in the Middle East. This approach is exactly what every U.S. government lacks.

*Editor's Note: There is no "Jewish party" in the United States. The author may have been referring to the idea of a "Jewish lobby” or else to the political power held by parties in Israel.


3月19日,美国总统奥巴马启程前往以色列、约旦河西岸及约旦访问,开启第二任期的首次出访。此行能否重启中东和平进程的机会之窗?奥巴马政府的中东政策会否有新的调整?奥巴马乘坐的“空军一号”尚未起飞,国际舆论已经普遍不看好这次访问。白宫和奥巴马本人也急于降低外界对此访的期望值,声称这次不会带去什么“宏大的和平计划”。可以看出,奥巴马在中东问题上很纠结。

  奥巴马本来是希望在中东问题上有所建树。第一任期之初,奥巴马心气很高,在2009年6月的开罗演讲中,高调谈及巴以问题,重申以“两国方案”推动中东和平进程,并期待美国与伊斯兰世界的“新开端”;在2011年5月的中东政策讲话中,又再度提出“重启巴以和谈”的建议,声称“以色列和巴勒斯坦的边界应以1967年的边界线为基础”,并期待借“阿拉伯之春”的势头推动中东北非的“政治改革和民主运动”,美国对中东外交也要由此翻开“新篇章”。

  怎奈事与愿违。巴以和谈于2010年恢复,但是好景不长,很快又中断。巴勒斯坦民众认为奥巴马“口惠而实不至”,以色列民众对奥巴马的好感也急剧下降,奥巴马在国内的政治对手抨击他“背叛了盟友以色列”,可以说奥巴马多头不落好。“阿拉伯之春”变成了“阿拉伯之冬”,中东乱上加乱使得美国在地缘政治上没有取得预期收获,以色列的地缘安全环境非但没有改善,反而有所恶化。奥巴马对“阿拉伯之春”的热情被当头泼了凉水。

-
  中东地区的另两个关键问题到现在还无解。奥巴马政府把推翻巴沙尔作为对叙利亚政策的首要目标,又不愿轻易直接卷入军事干预。在伊朗核问题上,口头表示坚持对话和外交方式,却又多方制裁和孤立伊朗,层层加码。

  奥巴马之所以在中东问题上纠结,主要缘于两点:一是中东问题本身的复杂性,二是美国在中东的利益多元性。

  冷战期间,美国在国内犹太集团的游说下,把以色列作为抓手,以能源利益为重要目标,平衡各方力量,并同前苏联展开势力争夺,深深地卷入中东问题。冷战后,美国又把民主、反恐和防扩散作为中东政策的支柱,实际上这些往往成为打压异己的借口,造成更多的地区冲突。根本原因在于,美国在中东追求的政策目标之间往往相互矛盾,言行不一,顾此失彼。

  中东问题剪不断,理还乱。奥巴马第一任期力推美国全球战略“再平衡”,将亚太和中东作为外交政策重点,并向亚太地区倾斜。但中东地区的热点问题热度不减反增,牵涉奥巴马政府很大精力。

  美国凭借自身实力地位和在中东的影响,是有开启中东和平进程之窗的条件的。奥巴马不想纠结的话,就要在中东政策目标上有所取舍,少从美国的私利和国内政治出发考虑问题,多从中东地区和平稳定大局着手行动。而这正是美国历届政府所缺乏的。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Canada: Tell Me Again Which North American Leader Is Acting like a Dictator?

Canada: No, Joly, We Don’t Want America’s Far-Left Academic Refugees

Austria: Deterrence, but Not for Everyone

Spain: Spain’s Defense against Trump’s Tariffs

Germany: Trump’s Selfishness

Topics

Canada: No, Joly, We Don’t Want America’s Far-Left Academic Refugees

Germany: Trump’s Selfishness

Austria: Trump Ignores Israel’s Interests during Gulf Visit

Germany: Trump’s Offer and Trump’s Sword

Canada: A Guide To Surviving the Trump Era

Canada: Trump Prioritizes Commerce Over Shared Values in Foreign Policy Gamble

Australia: Another White House Ambush Sends a Message to World Leaders Entering Donald Trump’s Den

Related Articles

Hong Kong: The Lessons of World War II: The Real World Importance of Resisting Hegemony

Mexico: The Trump Problem

Taiwan: Making America Great Again and Taiwan’s Crucial Choice

Venezuela: Vietnam: An Outlet for China

Germany: US Companies in Tariff Crisis: Planning Impossible, Price Increases Necessary