What Happens if America Pulls Out of Europe?

The U.S. military has to economize and will reduce troop levels in Europe. The question of what the ramifications of losing the United States as resident protector would be for Europe isn’t an especially welcome topic in Berlin and Brussels.

What does Europe do if the United States one day says, “It was nice meeting you, thank you and goodbye?” Of course it wouldn’t happen exactly that way, but what would happen if it does?

The question was asked at the latest parliamentary meeting between the U.S. Congress and the German Bundestag in Berlin, although it must have been an unpleasant one for all the Germans regardless of their political party affiliation. It had an air of impending emergency about it. The German answer was instructive because the Germans had absolutely no clue as to what would happen.

The presence of 300,000 U.S. soldiers back in the good old days of the Cold War — not to mention innumerable family members scattered between Ramstein in the Palatinate and Bad Hersfeld in the Fulda Gap — those days are long since gone. As Bob Dylan sang, “the times they are a-changin’.” Today the Americans have but two combat brigades on the European continent plus Air Force units and Navy units in nearby waters. The tendency is toward even less.

But it isn’t only financial hard times that mitigate against far-reaching commitments. There’s also the shift of political significance toward Asia and the Pacific where a permanent balance of power with China is impossible without a significant U.S. presence. It is in the greater Middle East where the outbreak of regional conflicts is prevented by the presence of U.S. forces and U.S. forces alone.

And Russia? It is partly America’s partner in missile defense but remains its geopolitical rival in all other areas while the Germans, meanwhile, rhapsodize about strategic partnerships and think about Russian oil and gas. As ever, a U.S. departure from its role as protector of Europe or an abdication of the U.S. commitment to the “global commons” that guard against evil-doers of all sorts gets no attention in the dialog between Berlin and Brussels save an awkward silence.

To determine what the United States means by “leading from behind” one need only look at Libya, Mali and Syria, or how diplomacy and strategy within NATO is to be seamlessly accomplished in the future.

Or what burdens Europeans will have to shoulder down the road. Every man for himself, or everyone working together? “More Europe” may sound appealing in the halls of German government, but one hears very little about security and defense policy these days. “What happens if” is a question that remains unanswered.