Afghan Peace Process: Doubts of Karzai Administration

The outcome of Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s recent statements openly upbraiding America is unknown. These statements have already created a tense environment during the first visit of the new U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel to Afghanistan. Additionally, several questions have been raised regarding President Karzai’s intent and the safe exit of coalition forces from the country in 2014.

There are many ways to understand these statements, including the interpretation that America — with the collusion of Afghan Taliban — is lengthening the war against terror. One explanation for these charges could be that Karzai is showing his disappointment, as the demand of handing over Afghan prisoners was not met on time. According to the president’s spokesman, Hamid Karzai gave these statements after his complaints to the Western world — made during separate meetings with officials — went unattended. Furthermore, another explanation could be that his tenure as president is ending soon, and he wants to leave his impression as a nationalist rather than an American puppet. He is also afraid of getting a secondary position in the peace negotiation process between America and the Taliban. For that reason, he could also criticize America’s diplomatic efforts to bring peace to the region. The Afghan president’s expression of wrath was preplanned with the purpose of making it clear to American officials that they cannot ignored him on the matter of the withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan.

Another reason could be to give a message that without his help the security pact between the two countries cannot be fulfilled, which is important to pave the legal path for the U.S. forces staying in Afghanistan beyond 2014. According to the Afghan spokesman, handing over Afghan prisoners and a lack of U.S. interest on other matters will have a negative impact on any mutual security pact. These acts of President Karzai are creating barriers to diplomatic efforts in the peace process.

President Karzai also sabotaged every effort made toward the political process during the last month’s tripartite conference in the United Kingdom, attended by Pakistan, Afghanistan and the U.K. He rejected every informal meeting between Afghan groups and the Taliban at Paris, Kyoto and Oslo. His strong differences resulted in the cancellation of a track two diplomacy meeting, which would be held in Ashkhabad — the capital of Turkmenistan — with the support of the United Nations. The main purpose of those meetings would to provide a base for the solutions to Afghan issues.

President Karzai also opposed the establishment of a Taliban office in Qatar by holding it to unreal conditions. Just like the international community, Pakistan also considers the establishment of a Taliban office in Qatar to be part of the process of reconciliation. Although President Karzai initially stated his support for the establishment of a Taliban office in Qatar during his visit to the U.S., he later reneged on this promise. During the tripartite conference in London, he put forward the condition that the Taliban office could only be used to conduct dialogues between the Afghan peace council and the Taliban. On the other hand, he had already rejected the possibilities of peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government.

He wants to have direct talks with America. Before and after the London conference, President Karzai’s national security team told him that America, the U.K., Pakistan and the Taliban are planning to remove him from the government. He accused Pakistan of isolating him and trying to put the Northern Alliance and the Taliban on one table for the Afghan peace process. According to the news, he sent his envoy to establish offices in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, so that the Doha office would close by default. These efforts were futile, but it was clear that Mr. Karzai wants to end the negotiation process in Qatar.

In this current situation, the Obama administration also needs to play its role to enhance the peace process. Furthermore, there are differences between how America and Pakistan want to continue the peace process. American officials say that Washington addressed many of the Taliban’s top concerns; now the ball is in their court. The Taliban needs to give two important statements to clear the path for establishing their office in Qatar: First, they need to condemn the international terrorism; second, they need to ensure that they are ready for dialogue with all Afghan units. Western officials assured that the reconciliation process would be easy through these statements, and President Karzai could also be involved in the process. Pakistani officials believe that after establishing the office in Qatar, the path for peace talks among different Afghan groups could be possible. In contrast, without any proper political planning, it is a challenge to involve President Karzai.

There is a need for a strong political framework through which the diplomatic process will not only be enhanced, but which will make efforts to disrupt it more difficult. Pakistan believes that the peace process has already been delayed and that it should be done before the 2014 presidential election to increase its fairness. As the withdrawal process of U.S. forces increases in 2013, it is important to complete the peace process before America loses its interest in the matter. Given Afghanistan’s current situation and the uncertainty related to it, delay should be avoided. On the other hand, the ability of security forces to take care of security issues — after U.S. forces withdraw from Afghanistan — is already a challenge. The only way out of this uncertainty is to find solutions through diplomacy by which the safe exit of NATO forces is possible and future generations of Afghanistan can be saved from mismanagement.