Afghanistan Peace Talks Stall: Taliban Withdraw to Gain Ground

Current plans stipulate that the U.S.-led NATO forces will pull out at the end of 2014, and Washington is quietly making preparations for the withdrawal. Apart from shifting the burden of defense entirely onto the shoulders of the Afghan military and police, the U.S. is attempting to engage in peace talks with the Taliban and incorporate them into the political framework of Afghanistan, paving the way for stable and enduring governance in the country.

The Afghanistan War has been fought for 12 years and the Taliban grows stronger even as they are attacked. They have consistently maintained a firm hold over the southern reaches and launch surprise attacks at will throughout the country, even penetrating the heavily fortified Green Zone in the capital, Kabul, as if it were no man’s land. If some reconciliation cannot be reached with the Taliban, all of Afghanistan will likely again fall swiftly back into the hands of the radical Islamic organization upon the withdrawal of NATO troops.

From Ruling Government to Outsider

For the Taliban, patience is victory. If they simply wait one year more, Afghanistan will once again be theirs. The Afghan police and military are over 300,000 strong, but despite their strength in numbers, the Taliban clearly holds little respect for them. This is not only because the army lacks training and equipment, but is also due to the fact that security forces have been infiltrated by no small number of Taliban adherents. Surprise attacks have already become one of the primary causes of casualties among NATO soldiers. However, with that said, the Taliban have much to gain and nothing to lose from peace talks. They can take a legal and rightful share in power and perhaps even hold a dominant position within Afghan politics, so what reason do they have not to participate? Quite obviously, the Taliban see peace talks as wiping the slate clean, but seek to utilize this to “legalize” themselves, opening an office for peace talks in Qatar’s capital of Doha. The Taliban’s eagerness to reclaim the title and unfurl the flag of their time in power reflects precisely their intent to make a triumphant return to power.

Washington has negotiated directly with the Taliban, seemingly shouldering the Afghan government aside, and President Karzai is extremely displeased. The reinstatement of the Taliban gives him large reason to boycott the peace talks, and U.S. President Obama must take the sentiments of the United States’ primary non-NATO allies into consideration. After being pressed to abandon their old state name and flag, the Taliban also temporarily closed their Qatar office, indicating that the move was made in protest at broken promises on the part of the U.S. and Afghan governments.

The Taliban have signaled that they are content to call off the peace talks, and Obama is growing anxious. If the Taliban are not accounted for, how can the troops be withdrawn? Obama has turned to put pressure on Karzai, warning that no troops will be stationed in Afghanistan after 2014. As the two lock horns, we will see who is the first to yield.