There Is No Sino-US Cold War Theory

Not long ago, German scholar Wolfgang Hirn wrote an article predicting the next Cold War to be between China and the West; with the growing strength and rise of China, Sino-U.S. relations could very soon become what Soviet-U.S. relations were during the Cold War. Ever since the end of the Cold War, there has been much focus on the direction China is heading, and strategists in Europe all have some kind of a threat theory about China that emphasizes China’s strength. Especially after the financial crisis in 2008, the European financial sector, which has had a weak economic recovery, is particularly pessimistic about the threat of China. That, coupled with the ideology behind human rights organizations trying to “tame” China, makes up a mentality very similar to the one that existed during the Cold War. Indeed, it seems that a Chinese Cold War is in the future.

The Cold War mentality is a Western kind of strategic thinking that is prevalent in an era of American hegemony. Through this view, people only see a “black and white” world and are reluctant to play any kind of a strategic game. The United States is especially trying to implement a strategy to rebalance Asia, and the U.S. has repeatedly tried to fight the growth trend of China.

In reality though, this Cold War between China and the United States depends solely on China. The U.S. is currently the world’s only hegemonic superpower, and neointerventionism is the norm in American foreign affairs, so the U.S. does not need to start a Cold War with China to win this hegemonic role. As long as China does not challenge the U.S. as the most dominant political and economic power, there is no need for a Cold War. Just looking at the influence of the U.S. dollar and other indicators of hegemony is enough to make China look bad in front of the U.S. Although China has grown considerably economically, China isn’t even close to challenging the dominance of the U.S. in the world. China has neither the leadership nor the ability to launch a comprehensive challenge. Objectively speaking, being able to solve China’s own problems, defend its national sovereignty and make sure that its security and developmental interests are not being violated are good enough for China.

In an increasingly integrated world, China needs to have more self-confidence. China is no longer considered a weak and poor country, and the more powerful China becomes, the more its security is guaranteed. Despite some countries trying to contain and contest China’s power, in the era of globalization, this feat is nearly impossible; China is too closely linked to the rest of the world. Even if a country is armed to the teeth, it has no chance of being able to contain China. Any transaction going on in the world today that does not somehow involve China’s participation is unthinkable. For a country to exaggerate the threat of China to form some kind of an alliance is really equivalent to shooting itself in the foot.

　　

There is no doubt that during China’s sprint to the top it will face opposition through pressure from other countries as well as American strategists clamoring to contain China. This short-term Cold War thinking is difficult to get rid of, and it no doubt affects the U.S. government’s strategic outlook. In dealing with the U.S., China should not be afraid of struggle and must insist on dialogue. Of course, China needs to think about the impact of its rising power and be careful to control its influence on international order. China’s internal development, harmony and justice will show China’s adherence to its principles. The so-called Sino-U.S. Cold War theory is an error of judgment, and the notion in itself shows flaws in the Cold War mentality.