‘The West Should Not Be so Scared of Iran’

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has requested a dialogue with the West. There seems to be a breakthrough, or is this an illusion? A dispute between Henk Müller and Keyvan Shahbazi.

HM: The two enemies, Iran and the United States, resume dialogue. Diplomacy has returned. We are entering a new phase. Will you be happy with that?

KS: Iran is suffering from the sanctions, meaning that everyone who does not have connections with the regime suffers. Sanctions are crushing the economy, incomes have decreased by 50 percent, inflation has increased by 50 percent and annually 180,000 highly educated youths leave — an economic loss of $50 billion per year. This cannot continue.

Iran is trying to change minds with a charm offensive, with top leaders who have studied in the West and have earned trust. Iran, according to Rouhani, would never behave the way it does in the United Nations if the sanctions had not forced it to do so, and it works.

HM: That is very cynical.

KS: I disagree. The leader of Iran, the Ayatollah Khamenei, plays a smart game. He hides behind Rouhani. The West should not be fooled. Rouhani acts on Khamenei’s wishes, which guarantees the existence of the regime. Khamenei talks of “heroic flexibility,” but it only focuses on the stability of the regime.

HM: Khamenei praised Obama’s restraint in Syria on 9/11 and spoke of new possibilities. That is a win-win situation.

KS: You could say that Khamenei’s position has only improved now that it is clear that the U.S. will not interfere in Syria. That means it is not Iran’s turn yet. This gives Iran the space to present Rouhani in this light. Rouhani is Khamenei-light.

HM: People change. Once, Rouhani was an advocate of attacks on Israeli citizens, and now he congratulates Israel on New Year’s.

KS: Hip, hip, hooray. The regime is pragmatic. Everything can change if the base — the Islamic republic with a high religious leader at the top — stays the same.

HM: How great would it have been if Rouhani had shaken Obama’s hand?

KS: Rouhani “did not have time” for a meeting in the halls, and a lunch was not happening because alcohol was being served.

HM: A little bit of a poor excuse.

KS: Yes, but for Iranian clergy the pouring of alcohol is the same as viewing unveiled women, although I think that Rouhani has seen a fair few of those.

HM: If you are so skeptical, what should the West demand?

KS: The Western attitude is wrong and based on the Cold War. Iran is not the Soviet Union, no superpower with nuclear weapons. You should not be so scared of it. Tehran does not have that many demands. The West should therefore demand concrete results: inspections of nuclear installations, transparency, but especially that Iran respect human rights. Respect for human rights is the real measure of change in Iran.

HM: The Green Revolution of 2009 did not deliver any results. Rouhani is now introducing a new era.

KS: In 2009, the middle class revolted, but the lower classes did not dare. Now, the economic situation is becoming pressing. That is why the regime wants an ease of the sanctions. But reforms will not come from the regime.

HM: Forced from outside? Iranians always say they can handle their own business — that the West should not interfere.

KS: They have been saying that for 30 years. Do you see any change?

HM: Thus, continue the sanctions?

KS: Definitely. Easting the sanction without receiving any concrete results from the Iranian side would be the stupidest thing to do. Obama is weak. With support from Moscow and Beijing, Iran is working on a “constructive” position.

HM: There is nothing against that.

KS: Tehran always wants to win. Iran wants the U.S. to promise to leave it alone in exchange for certainty about nuclear plans. But Tehran wants a nuclear weapon before making such a deal.

HM: Do you want to eliminate the regime?

KS: I want a different Iran. Since 1981, tens of thousands of political opponents and dissenters have been murdered. In 1988, at least 5,000 political prisoners have been condemned and dumped in mass graves. The current minister of justice, Pourmohammadi, was a member of the “committee of death,” which held processes. The day before yesterday Rouhani said on CNN that the life of a Christian, Jew or Muslim has equal value. Beautiful, but the CNN should have asked, “And that of your opponents as well?”

HM: You are too somber. The sanctions will be the end of the regime.

KS: I think the regime is economically holding up long enough to develop nuclear weapons. After that you will not get rid of it.