A Likely End to Obama's Political Dreams

The BBC has taken an incisive look at the U.S. government shutdown. According to a Weibo user quoted by the news outlet, the “U.S. government constantly jumps from one crisis to the next, becoming a victim of hijacking … and exposing the greatest flaw in the American system. That flaw, politely put, would be a certain ‘dysfunction,’ but to simply call it ‘bizarre’ would be more fitting.”

The struggle between Republicans and Democrats is a never-ending one. But now, health care reform is the focus of their contest, Congress their field of battle and the budget their means of attack.

Such reforms are the most controversial issue between the two parties. The Democrats support health care reform, primarily representing the interests of lower and middle-class Americans, while the Republicans — dubbed the Grand Old Party due to their representation of middle and upper-class interests — oppose it. Consequently, Republicans oppose passing subsidies that would increases taxes on the wealthy to support health insurance for the poor. But in early 2010, with Democrats in control of both the House and Senate, Obama succeeded in pushing a bill on health care reform through Congress. Now, the Republicans’ sole recourse is to delay implementation of the law until the next presidential election.

While not yet in control of Congress, Republicans used states to achieve their political ends. Not long after the bill passed into law, 26 states successively challenged its constitutionality, forcing a Supreme Court decision on the issue and thereby stalling through the most opportune period for implementation of the law. Now that Republicans control the House, it was inevitable that they would redouble their efforts to postpone the law from taking real effect. Taking this government shutdown as an example, Republicans tied the budget that was to pass on Oct. 1 to a clause to delay health care reform, effectively attaching a rider to the budget and asking for Obama’s approval. Tying together the perennially controversial issues of health care reform and the budget is killing two birds with one stone for Republicans. If Obama relents, health care reform will be successfully postponed until a Republican takes the presidency. The Democrats will not take this lying down, yet if they do not agree to Republican demands, the government will shut down.

If Obama compromises to a certain degree, the federal government may avoid that eventuality. This is just as it was during the Clinton era, when in 1995 Clinton wanted to invest more in education and health insurance, but was shot down by a Republican-controlled Congress. And it is precisely due to Republican pressure on Clinton over the issue of health insurance in the budget that the U.S. experienced its most harmful shutdown to date. However, at that time Clinton was under pressure for re-election and could not afford the economic and international consequences of a shutdown. As a result, he chose to compromise with a more balanced budget. Obama is already in his second term and can stand his ground as Republicans pour on the heat.

Why is Obama being so stubborn? This touches upon the importance of health care reforms to the U.S. The U.S. is the only developed country that yet lacks universal health coverage. When Obama first took office, he swore to put an end to this and had even already produced a timetable for health care reforms that would not only fulfill his political promises but cement his presidential legacy. However, the current act still falls short of universal health coverage. Obama’s health care reform covers 95 percent of the population, missing the mark and demonstrating that Obama has still made many concessions. If he backs down again to Republican threats, his political dreams and legacy will have been thoroughly sundered.

However, Obama does not have much time. The Republican bludgeon is not only the issue of the budget, but more importantly the U.S. debt crisis about to come to a head on Oct. 17. If Obama does not return to the negotiating table, the issue of the debt ceiling will go unresolved; if that happens, there will be no one on either side of the aisle capable of weathering the storm. Republicans may be unable to bear that responsibility, but the burden on Obama is even greater. In the early days of the shutdown, people have still been approving of how the president has defied threats and held his ground, but if the involvement of the debt ceiling issue leads to graver economic consequences, they will very likely change their tune.